That was it?

by JDH on November 20, 2010

I must have missed it; did you see the Tipping Point?

Two weeks ago, in my commentary Gold Makes a New High: Proof that the Tipping Point is Here? I quoted from the work of Clif High at halfpasthuman.com, and made the comment that for at least the past year, Clif has been predicting a major “tipping point” during the period of November 8 to 11, 2010, with emotional release language starting on November 14th at 6:50 AM Pacific Coast Time.

Well, today is November 20, and the world does not appear to have changed, does it? What am I missing? Over on the Urban Survival site George Ure seems convinced that the Tipping Point has arrived:

Did the ‘tipping point’ begin on Sunday morning (November 14)? Yes.  Not only did we have
lots of release language surrounding the release of

Aung San Suu Kyi of Burma/Myanmar,
but there was the release of

Paul & Rachel Chandler who had been held by Somali pirates for 388 days.

Then – almost exactly on schedule – time-wise – we’ve had a big outburst of
earthquakes in the area south of Yemen and northeast of Djibouti.  And no,
we’re not talking 2’s and 3’s.  This is an area which hasn’t been
seismically active and in the past 30-hours it has suddenly popped off – not
with one or two –
but with 40 quakes on the USGS site.

Hmmm. So that’s what “release language” means? Not the release of tension, but the release of actual people?

Of course the phrase “tipping point” has appeared in other stories this week, including Knight Research’ Stunning Call: “The Game Is Over” on Tyler Durden’s site. To quote:

The simple story is this: We believe the structural and cyclical terms of global trade have finally reached their tipping point. This will catalyze a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets. The emerging market global growth story is over.

I don’t think any of us doubt that we are past the point of no return. We all acknowledge that governments cannot print money forever, with no consequences. We acknowledge that unemployment is high, consumer debt remains high, and the housing market in the U.S. remains a foreclosure laden mess. That’s obvious. What isn’t obvious is when everything will actually blow up.

Predicting, for example, that the price of gold is going to $5,000 per ounce is only half a prediction. To profit from that prediction you must also attach a time element to it, such as $5,000 per ounce by December 15, 2012, or whatever.

Saying that we are at a Tipping Point is meaningless, if the Tipping Point is only the first step in our long slow slide into oblivion.

This week, there was no obvious slide into oblivion. The markets, on the week, were essentially unchanged. Gold fell, but only slightly.

It would appear that $1,320 is a solid support level at the moment, and with gold about to break through 50 on the RSI, it would appear that the slight correction has made gold a better bargain than it was two weeks ago.

My covered writing strategy was only moderately successful. I closed out some of my positions at a small profit, and I allowed some of my other stocks to be called away.

What now?

The first quarter is the traditionally strong time for precious metals, so the plan is simple: buy on weakness in November and December, maintain a significant cash position to grab bargains in the event of an unexpected “tipping point” event, and ride it out.

That’s the plan, thanks for reading, and see you next week.

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