Two Announcements, and Beyond That, I’ve Got Nothing

by JDH on December 17, 2011

As we careen towards the end of the year, I’ll start with two announcements:

First, as I have done for the last three years, I am happy to give each of you the opportunity to make your predictions on where gold, and the Dow, will end 2012. Next Saturday, Christmas Eve, I’ll post the e-mail address where you can send your predictions, which will be due by January 2, 2012. More next week.

By the way, your predictions for 2010 were almost perfect. You can read review your 2011 predictions to see how you are doing; it would appear you were overly pessimistic on your predictions for the Dow (but with the volatility in the markets there’s lots of time left), and your gold prediction is looking remarkably accurate.

Second, as requested by a few of you, I have re-opened the ability to register as a member on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum. The Forum generates a fair amount of spam, posted mostly by new members who join, post a spam message (an advertisement of some sort) and then disappear, never to be seen again. So, to combat the spam, I simply de-activated the ability for new members to register. However, as requested, new member registration is active again, perhaps for a limited time, depending on how much spam I get hit with. I’ve tightened up the spam controls, so we’ll see how it goes.

You may also register and post comments below each blog post on this site.

Now, to the week that was.

Or, in this case, wasn’t.

The Dow was down, as were most other markets.

Gold got hammered. Gold traded at almost $1,720 on Monday, and almost touched $1,560 on Thursday, for a drop of over 9% in four days. And yes, with the close on Friday at $1,601, the 200 day moving average was broken for the first time since early 2009, almost three years ago. What does this imply?

It could be that the bull market in gold is over. All good things come to an end, and this may be it. It was a 10 year run, and now it’s time to sell and move to the safety of U.S. dollars, which is still the world’s reserve currency, simply because it’s the best of a bad lot.

But I doubt it.

I suspect that the Big Boyz are crashing the market to give themselves one more great opportunity to cover their shorts, which presumably happened this week.

I also suspect that in the stock market there was lots of tax loss selling going on, and why not? If you have losers, take the losses and redeploy your money into something else. If you own Gold Stock A, and it’s down, why not sell, take the loss, and put the money into Gold Stock B, which is selling at a bargain price? It makes sense.

I did not do any buying, or selling, this week. I don’t know if the sell off in gold is over, although I suspect that if it isn’t, it’s probably close.

So, as time permits, I’ll review the stink bid list and place some orders, and see what develops.

Beyond that, I haven’t a clue, so I’ll stop talking, until next week…

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

PaidInGold December 17, 2011 at 9:37 am

JDH,

A suspenseful week if you were buying, a heartbreaking one if you were selling.

A waiting game, I presume, more like musical chairs though. We can all mosey about, but we better lock in a bid for the precious metals before they blow the f’ up.

Cheers. Will be back next week. And happy to have signed up for the forum.