Time for 2014 Predictions

by JDH on December 28, 2013

Next week I will report on the results of our 2013 Predictions (and I’m sad to report that unless the world dramatically changes in the next two days, our predictions were not even close), but today I open the doors to let you take another shot at predicting the future.

I first posted my predictions here at the start of 2008, and at the end of 2008 I asked for your predictions as we started the tradition with our 2009 predictions contest.

Our best year, as a group, was 2010.  At the start of 2010 we made our predictions, and the group, on average, was near perfect. At the start of 2010 the group, on average, predicted that the Dow would close at 11,667. As it turned out, the Dow close for the year at 11,577.51, so your prediction was freakishly close to the actual number.

Even better, that year the group also predicted that the price of gold would close at $1,418, and where did gold close?

$1,420.70

Yes, on average the group was within $3 of the actual closing price.  Wow.

Of course since then our predictions have significantly deviated from reality, and as noted above it would appear that our 2013 will miss the mark by a wide margin.  So what’s changed?  Why were we experts leading in to 2010, and three years later we don’t have a clue?

I suspect the answer is simple: the Fed is messing with the markets, so the markets are no longer “free” markets.  We all see that the economy is weak, and yet massive fiscal stimulus propels the stock market to record highs. To accurately predict the market, you have to ignore fundamentals, and instead predict what the Fed will do. Sad, but true.

So here then is your challenge:  Send me:

Prediction #1: The closing level for the Dow on March 31, 2014, June 30, 2014, September 30, 2014, and December 31, 2014.

Prediction #2: The closing level for one ounce of gold, in U.S. dollars, on March 31, 2014, June 30, 2014, September 30, 2014, and December 31, 2014.

Prediction #3: Anything else you want. The price of silver or oil, your top stock picks, who will win the Super Bowl, whatever. It doesn’t count in our contest, but it will be recorded for all time, just for fun.

As in past years, the prize in the contest is nothing other than bragging rights.

You can e-mail your predictions to 2014predictions@buy-high-sell-higher.com or you can post them on the 2014 Predictions board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum.

To give you a taste, here’s a poll on gold.

What will the price of gold be on December 31, 2014

  • $1,101 to $1,500 (38%, 37 Votes)
  • $1,501 to $1,800 (25%, 24 Votes)
  • $900 to $1,100 (12%, 12 Votes)
  • $1,801 to $2,000 (9%, 9 Votes)
  • Over $2,500 (8%, 8 Votes)
  • $2,001 to $2,500 (5%, 5 Votes)
  • Under $900 (2%, 2 Votes)

Total Voters: 97

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Thanks for reading, Happy New Year, and Happy Predicting.