2014 Prediction Summary, and Happy Birthday Sir John A

by JDH on January 11, 2014

Before we begin, for those of you who are Canadians and are reading this on Saturday January 11, happy birthday to our first Prime Minister, Sir John A Macdonald, who, if he were still alive, would be 199 years old today.  Should be a great party when he hits 200 next year.

Now, on to your predictions.  You can read all of the predictions on our 2014 Predictions page, with sub-pages for your individual predictions; here is the summary:

The Price of Gold Will Be:

Price of Gold
Date Price per Ounce $US
March 31, 2014
$ 1,225
June 30, 2014
$ 1,243
September 30, 2014
$ 1,290
December 31, 2014
$ 1,329

It would appear that you do not expect much movement in the price of gold for the year.  Interesting.  That agrees with the results of our poll as well:

What will the price of gold be on December 31, 2014

  • $1,101 to $1,500 (38%, 37 Votes)
  • $1,501 to $1,800 (25%, 24 Votes)
  • $900 to $1,100 (12%, 12 Votes)
  • $1,801 to $2,000 (9%, 9 Votes)
  • Over $2,500 (8%, 8 Votes)
  • $2,001 to $2,500 (5%, 5 Votes)
  • Under $900 (2%, 2 Votes)

Total Voters: 97

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I am the radical in the group, as noted on the JDH Predictions page, where I predict that the price of gold will drop to $1,000 in Q1, but then increase by $200 per quarter thereafter, ending the year at $1,600. MetalMeister believes the opposite, predicting that gold will fall to $1,000 by year end.  We shall see who is correct.

My thinking is that the Powers That Be will want one more smackdown in the price of gold, in the hopes that they can make a profit covering their shorts.  I could easily be wrong, as it is quite possible that the bottom for this cycle happened on New Year’s Eve, and it’s onward and upward from here.

As for the Dow:

The DOW will close at:

DOW
Date DOW Close
March 31, 2014
17,333
June 30, 2014
17,117
September 30, 2014
14,817
December 31, 2014
14,758

I again diverge from the group, believing that the Dow will hit 20,000 by June, and then crash to 12,000 by year end.  MetalMeister again takes the opposite view, predicting a steady increase to 20,000 by the end of the year.

My thinking, as with gold, as that the Boyz will pump as long as they can, and get it up to 20,000, but then the crap hits the fan and down we go.

That’s the fun of predicting.  Some of us will be close, and some of us won’t be.

I make these predictions to guide my investment strategy.  Since I believe gold will eventually recover, I’m holding, but I’m also doing covered writes on my gold stocks to lessen my risk.  I have funds invested in the general market in the hopes that they will increase, but when things start to look toppy I’ll be heading for the exits.

Thanks for your predictions; feel free to add your further thoughts, or expand on your predictions on the 2014 Predictions Board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum, and see you next week.