Dow Falls 666, But That’s Not The Real Story

by JDH on February 3, 2018

The Dow is down.  Could be a story.

The memo got released.  That could be a story.

Or perhaps those are just minor details.  Perhaps there is a bigger story.

So a guy named Nunes writes a memo, and the Democrats don’t want it released, but the Republicans do, so they vote to release it, and it takes until Friday for the President to authorize it’s release.  If you want media attention, you don’t release something just before the weekend; you release it on Monday, at the start of the week.  All pre-planned press releases come out on Monday, not Friday.

So why release on a Friday?

Because the memo is not the story.  It’s a distraction from the story.

Remember back in December, when General Flynn plead guilty to lying to the FBI?  So why was it that, this week, Special Prosecutor Mueller asked the court to delay sentencing until May?  Why would you delay sentencing for some dude who already plead guilty?

General Flynn was one of the top spies.  He knows all of the tricks.  So why would he talk to the Russian Ambassador on a regular phone line, knowing that all of his communications were being monitored?  And then, knowing that, when the FBI asked him if he talked to the Russians (which he obviously did; that was part of his job) would he lie and say he didn’t?  That makes no sense.

And how is it possible that the NSA or whomever was tapping his phone lines?  Don’t you need a warrant to do that?  Yes you do.  You go to the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court court to get a warrant, but you have to give probable cause the the person you want to do the surveillance on is colluding with a foreign power, to prevent the government from spying on ordinary Americans.  To convince the court, they took a dossier, created by an FBI informant and former spy, Richard Steele.  What they didn’t tell the court was that the research was paid for by the Clinton campaign, so it was likely biased.

The FISA judge, Rudolph Contreras, who authorized the wire-tapping was also the judge who accepted Flynn’s plea deal, so after accepting the plea deal he recused himself.  Does that sound like a conflict of interest?  Is that why he recused himself?

Could it be that everything Flynn did was a set-up, knowing that illegal stuff was happening, and it needed to be exposed, and the only way to expose it was to take it all the way, and plead guilty?

Is this the beginning of the storm?

Is this why the Dow was down 666?

Could be.

Is Mueller a dirty cop, trying to frame Trump, or is he an honest cop, looking for the truth?

His investigation is stacked with anti-Trumpers, like FBI Agents Peter Strzok and lawyer Lisa Page.  It looks like a foregone conclusion that Trump will be found guilty.

Or, is it possible, that Mueller is a good cop, and is looking for the truth?  If so, Trump has set this up perfectly.  Trump has the power to fire Mueller.  Now that this memo is out, and it’s obvious that there is bias at the FBI, and the FISA process was obviously abused, Trump could fire Mueller and there would be some shouting from the left, but that would be it.

But he hasn’t fired Mueller.  Why not?

Because the set up is perfect.  Read the press clippings on Mueller over the last year.  The Democrats have nothing bad to say about him.  He was the FBI Director under Obama.  The Democrats love him.  So if his investigation concludes and he finds no evidence of collusion against Trump, the Democrats my come to regret pushing for the Mueller investigation.

If the investigation reveals bad behavior in the FBI, and reveals that the FBI was aware of Hillary Clinton’s crimes (Uranium One, Fusion GPS, her secret server) and covered them up, Mueller could be Trump’s best friend, and guarantee the Republicans big victories in the mid-term elections.

This is uncertainty.

That could explain the big drop in the Dow on Friday.

Here’s an alternate view: The DOW remains in a significant uptrend, and the drop of 2.54% on Friday did not fall to the uptrend line, and the DOW remains solidly above the 50 Day Moving Average, and almost 3,000 points above the 200 Day Moving Average.

This is a hiccup.

A blip.

A necessary correction.

This big drop in the DOW puts it all the way back to where it was on January 11.  Big deal.

It looks to me like the Big Boys took profits, and will be buying again on Monday, or sometime in the next week or two, when there will be bargains galore.

Here’s my point: don’t obsess over the day to day news.  Don’t believe it when they say Trump is in trouble and he’s going to be impeached.  Unemployment is low.  The stock market, despite Friday’s sell off, is still doing great.  ISIS appears to have been largely defeated.  North Korea is “kissing and making up” with South Korea, and will be attending the Olympics in South Korea later this month.  Trump’s strong stand on the embassy in Jerusalem has significantly reduced tensions in the Middle East, believe it or not.  We are in a new golden age.

And no, I’m not a Trump supporter, even though I did predict his victory.  I am a Canadian.  I am a dispassionate observer.  I have no insider information.  I’m just following the facts, and that’s how I see it.

Don’t panic.

Enjoy the ride.