Good First Week, and Thoughts on Trump

by JDH on January 5, 2019

It was a short week to start 2019, but it was a good one, primarily because gold appears to be awakening from it’s four year long slumber.

My working hypothesis is that we will see $1,300 in January, and $1,350 in February.  After that, who knows.  There is uncertainty in the world now: what will happen with Trump and the new Democratically controlled House of Representatives?  What will happen with China and the trade war?

My assumption is that the Democratic House is the best thing that ever happened to Trump.  He now has an “enemy” he can spar with.  He will attempt to make a deal with them on the Wall, but when that doesn’t happen, he will sign an Executive Order, saying that illegal immigration is a National Emergency, and he will allocate the money to build a Wall.  He’s already setting up that narrative:

I’m not an American, so I have no skin in the game on this one, but if you can frame the problem as illegal narcotics and human trafficking, it’s highly likely that the general public will get behind this plan.

The Democrats have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose economic policies are sheer lunacy, but she is very charismatic, and will give Trump a run for his money in the persuasion game, which is the only game that matters.  She is the perfect sparing partner, and will be a big help in contrasting the differences between Trump and the others, and she will help him win again in 2020.

For the last two years Trump didn’t have an enemy; he tried fighting Hillary, but that war is over.  Now that he has AOC to spar with, he’s in a good position moving forward.

So, given the uncertainty, I’m overweight gold, short Tesla, and holding my pot stocks.

2019 will be very interesting.  Stay tuned.