Compression.

Long time readers will know that I can’t keep my mouth shut, so allow me to elaborate on my one word commentary. In fact, since a picture is worth a thousand words, here are a thousand more words, pictorially:

As you can see, the S&P 500 traded essentially between 1,310 and 1,325 for 11 straight trading days. That’s a very tight range. On Friday it broke out of that compressed range, and closed up 1.5% at 1,345. So now the inevitable question:

Was that 11 day period like a spring, compressing the market, and Friday’s action was the uncoiling of the spring to the upside? Can we now expect a further run to new highs? Possible, but the Relative Strength Index is now at a very high 73.59, so common sense would tell you that a pull back is inevitable. But how can you have a pull back after a one day spring?

I have no idea, so I will make no further comment.

I will leave it to you to decide.

By the way, here’s the gold chart for the same period:

No sign of compression here; gold crated on Friday while the stock market increased, but even the short term up trend is still in place, so no worries here.

As brevity is the essence of wit, I will sign off and see you next week.

Gold was up 4.3% on the week, for the biggest weekly gain in three months. (Silver did even better, up 5.4%). That’s four weeks in a row of increases, and gold is now half way back from where we were after the “crash”. Here’s the chart:

Gold peaked at just over $1,900 at the end of the summer, and then “crashed” to under $1,550 in late September, and then again in late December. The month of January has been a golden month, with gold now at $1,732, an increase of around 12% since the lows at the end of 2011.

More importantly, the downtrend that started with the peak last summer appears to be broken. That’s good news, and should bode well for gold going forward. More charts (all of which you can click on to enlarge):

Here’s AEM.TO – Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.:

Not exactly the greatest looking chart, considering it’s a blue chip gold stock. Fortunately the collapse has ended, but there’s a lot of overhead resistance before this one will look good.

G.TO – Goldcorp Inc. looks considerably better, having not suffered the same collapse:

The long term uptrend was never broken, so a move up to the $54 level shouldn’t be that big of a stretch. For Agnico-Eagle to return to old highs will take considerably longer. Therefore I would be over weighting Goldcorp, and under weighting AEM. There are even better charts, like this one of FNV.TO – Franco-Nevada Corp. (I like it, so let’s make it really big.):

This is a stock that is very close to all time highs, so again, this would be a candidate for over-weighting. (As an aside, back in July I wrote a post on Franco-Nevada Corp – Time to Buy?, and I concluded that yes, it was time to buy, and I did, and I’m quite happy with that decision, thank you very much).

The silver stocks still have some catch up to go, but I’m still holding SLW.TO – Silver Wheaton Corp.:

There is obvious support at $27.50, and new highs in the near future would not surprise me. I’m holding.

However, let me offer two cautions:

First, the Relative Strength Index on all of these stocks is getting “toppy”; anything over 70 is a warning sign, so we may be approaching a short term top. My portfolio is up 12% this month, which is obviously not sustainable over the long term, so taking a few dollars off the table now to lock in profits would be prudent. I’m currently 30% in cash, and I’ll probably increase that to 40% or more this week.

Second, the general market is looking oversold, and if the market crashes, so to will all of our stocks. Last week I predicted a near term top in the markets, with the S&P 500 at 1,315. On Friday it closed at 1,316. Here’s the chart:

So, since I predicted the top, the market has advanced 1 point. I guess that makes my prediction wrong, but that’s fine, I’m sticking with it.

To summarize: I will drastically reduce my holdings in the under performers this week (like AEM.TO – Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.) in anticipation of short term weakness and to lock in profits, and then I will place stink bids to increase my holdings in the better performers on any weakness.

All comments welcome; feel free to agree or disagree; see you next week.

However, I am pleased to report that a big storm hit the entire north east United States, and there should be about 5 inches of new snow on the hills when we head out shortly (Saturday morning).

I suspect, however, that none of you care about ski conditions, so rather than showing you a weather map, let me show you an economy map:

As you can see, there are three obvious resistance levels on the S&P 500: 1345, 1353, and 1363, representing the successively lower highs in May, July and August of last year. If the market can’t get over these highs, we are still in a down trend, regardless of what you read in the media.

The astute observer, however, will observe that the high on October 28, 2011 was 1,285, which certainly appeared to be the next lower low. Of course, it wasn’t.

So now we get to sit and wait to see whether be get back up about 1345, or not. (We sit at 1315 today).

For interest sake, here’s the same chart, from the period 2007 to 2009:

Interesting. We had a series of lower highs starting with the all time high on October 8, 2007 of 1562, followed by a number of lower highs, culminating, of course, in the crash that took the SP 500 down to 683 on March 2, 2009.

By the numbers, from the top on October 8, 2007 to the start of the crash on September 15, 2008 was 343 days, and the market was already down 20% at that time, before the subsequent bottom 56% lower, and 511 days from the peak.

As of today, we are 280 days from the April 15, 2011 peak, only down 4%. Where will we be another 50 or 60 days from now? Who knows, but past history tells us that the market can certainly go up from here, but it could also get the living crap kicked out of it and go surprisingly lower from here.

Which is why, on Wednesday January 18 I posted on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum my prediction:

Intra-day we will see 1350 this week, and that will represent the high for the year.

Well, I guess I didn’t get that one right, as for the balance of the week there was very solid resistance at 1315, and we never crossed through it.

However, the RSI is now just under 70, the highest level since May, 2011, which was the start of a lower consolidation period, before the big drop.

I will stand by my prediction that we have seen the highs for quite some time (a prediction that will no doubt be proven incorrect next week). I am not predicting a crash next week. But, as past history shows, we could be considerably lower a few months out.

The only fly in the ointment is that 2012 is an election year in the now snowy USA, and I assume the incumbents will do everything in their power to prevent a stock market crash just before election day. The last crash in 2008 was just before election day, and we all know how that turned out for the party in power.

Enough of my idle speculations. I’m off to ski; see you next week.

Long time readers of this Buy High Sell Higher blog will know that I have subscribed to The Dines Letter for many years (since 1999, actually). Each year I write a post on The Dines Letter Annual Forecast Issue, and each year that post is my most popular post. (Take a look at the “Most Popular Posts” category on the right hand side of this page). Strange, isn’t it, that the most popular posts I write are my thoughts on someone else’s writing….

So, in honor of Mr. Dines, I started today’s blog with a true but irrelevant quote. Mr. Dines likes to do that as well (although, to be fair, some of the quotes are pretty good).

Before I comment specifically on the 2012 Annual Forecast Issue, my thoughts on Mr. Dines, well documented in the electronic pages of this blog, are as follows: I believe he is very good at spotting macro trends well in advance of “The Herd.” He was correct to invest in gold, uranium, rare earths, and internet stocks well before most of the rest of the investing public. That’s not to say that he was the only one to clue in that gold would be a good investment. Doug Casey was also a proponent of gold and uranium many years before their peaks. But, to give credit where credit is due, Mr. Dines was there as well, and subscribers who took his advance had the opportunity to make significant profits.

I have two criticisms of Mr. Dines:

First, while he is good at buying near the bottom, he’s not very good at selling near the top. I’ve never met the man, but I’m sure if he was given a chance to respond to that accusation he would tell you that “it is your responsibility to decide when to sell, based on your own personal circumstances. Set targets for yourself. Sell half when the stock rises 50%, and keep selling all the way up.” That’s a fair point, and I agree. It doesn’t matter what guru you follow; ultimately it’s your money, so only you, and you alone, can decide when to buy and sell.

However, he has had some spectacular failures on this point, the prime example being PNP.TO – Pinetree Capital Ltd. Again, you can go to the right hand side of this page and click on the Topics button and read the 57 previous times over the years that I have referenced Pinetree in these august digital pages, but the most succinct word on the point is my post on March 31, 2011 where I sarcastically commented that Dines Sells Pinetree! That’s Amazing! My point in that post was the Pinetree peaked at $16.15, and Mr. Dines subsequent sell recommendation occurred many months later, in the $3 range. Oops. I still don’t understand how a disciplined technician like Mr. Dines, with proper stop losses, could watch a stock lose most of it’s value before pulling the trigger on a sell order.

My second criticism of Mr. Dines is my perception that he is something of a front runner. I have no proof of this. He quite freely admits that he invests in stocks he recommends. I have no problem with that. In fact, I encourage it. If you aren’t willing to put your own money in your recommendations, why should I? My objection is that he will include a small note in The Dines Letter, or in an Interim Warning Bulletin, saying “buy Stock XXX, no stop yet”, and that’s it. No commentary, no rationale for making the purchase. It leaves the impression that he bought the stock, and now wants the rest of us to jump in.

I contrast that with the apparent approach over at Casey Research, where they explicitly state that they are buying along with everyone else, and they always give advance notice before they sell their own personal positions. Casey may be lying, but at least they are attempting to appear ethical. Also, when Casey makes a recommendation, it is very detailed. In most cases they have visited the mine, talked to management, and reviewed the financials. With Dines, it’s more like “buy because I said so.”

So, with my biases fully disclosed, here are my thoughts on the The Dines Letter 2012 Annual Forecast Issue:

It’s starts out pretty good. Nice summary of mass thought and behavior, and commenting on the “Occupy” protests he summarizes very nicely the problem with government intervention:

Now that students are demanding to know where the jobs are, Washington has decided to “create” them, which is like trying to “create” eggs instead of raising chickens such that eggs follow naturally.

I won’t quote extensively from this four pages of introductory comments, but they are very good, and accurately summarize the screwed up state of our world today.

As for his thoughts on gold, he agrees with me, and with everyone else who reads this blog: gold is going higher. They fly in the ointment at the moment is “when will gold stocks start going higher?” No-one knows, including Mr. Dines who, like the rest of us, is waiting for the psychology of gold share investors to catch up with the psychology of gold bullion investors. It would appear he is suggesting to wait until gold stocks turn up for further purchases.

On the markets, he correctly observes that the blue chips remain in uptrends, while the speculative juniors are not doing as well, in what would appear to be a flight to safety. True, but when will this trend reverse? No-one knows. Not me, or Mr. Dines.

He comments on his favorite rare earth recommendations, and despite significant recent weakness he still rates them a buy. This is a very volatile section of the market, so only time will tell if he is correct. His comments on uranium are the same: they’re down, but not out, so hold on. He doesn’t mention it explicitly, but at the end of the letter he produces a chart showing relative performances of commodities and stock indices, and in 2011 uranium stocks were down 58%, and the Dines Rare Earth Index dropped 64%.

Oops. It’s going to take a really good year to get back to even.

In conclusion, the 2012 Annual Forecast Issue is a good read. Will I take any action based on it’s contents? Probably not, since it confirmed what I already thought. I like gold, and despite what Mr. Dines says I’m not ready to jump into uraniums or rare earths quite yet.

I believe we should all consider a wide range of opinions before making our decisions. The Dines Letter is one such source of information, and so it’s worth a read, if nothing more.

Next week, time permitting, I’ll get back to my own thoughts. Feel free to comment below, or on the Dines board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum, and thanks for reading.

Or not.

Here is a mathematical summary (the average) of our Forum members’ predictions for 2012:

The Price of Gold Will Be:

The DOW will close at:

The consensus appears to be that gold will continue to increase as the year progresses, and the Dow will continue to erode into the middle of the year, and then remain flat for the balance of the year.

You can see each person’s individual predictions by scrolling down on the right hand side of this page, or by going to our 2012 Predictions Page.

Comments? Agree or disagree? Want to understand why someone is predicting what they are predicting? Post your questions or comments on the 2012 Predictions Board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum.

You can see my predictions on the JDH 2012 Predictions page, but here’s the summary: I’m more optimistic on the price of gold than you are, and I’m more pessimistic on the Dow.

You expect that gold will increase over the year from the $1,600 level to about $1,900 by the end of the year.  I think we will see $1,900 by the middle of the year, and $2,100 by the end of the year.  In fact, a big part of my brain thinks we will see $2,500 at some point this year, so perhaps I should have asked each of you for a maximum prediction during the year.  We could easily see $2,500 in November, and then $1,900 in December.  Picking exact numbers on exact dates is a fool’s game (that each of us are all to willing to play, obviously).

As for the Dow, you think it will close the year at 11,725; I’m thinking more like 9,500.  Ouch.

Of course the truth will depend on government actions.  If the government continues to print money, and if the world doesn’t care, then the Dow could be 14,000 very soon. (Interestingly, Uboat thinks it will be 14,000 on March 31, and ChrisC thinks it will be 14,275 by the end of the year.  Those were the two maximum predictions from the group).  Uboat and ChrisC could very easily both be correct.  If the Eurozone situation is fixed, 14,000 in three months is quite possible, and is even more achievable by the end of the year.

Of course I have no sense of optimism, and I expect that government efforts will ultimately fail.  I may be correct, but my timing may be completely wrong.  Perhaps the balloon will remain inflated for many more years to come, in which case I will look foolish.  Time will tell.

If the market does well, it’s possible that gold will do well.  Or not.  In a liquidity crises everything gets sold, so again, time will tell.

For the record, my prediction of gold at $2,100 at the end of the year is exceeded only by Beginner’s prediction of gold at $2,300 by year end. ChrisC is at the other end of the spectrum, predicting gold at $1,550 at the end of the year, and Croaker is not far behind, predicting gold at $1,590 on December 31, 2012.  Obviously one of us will be spectacularly wrong.

(It will probably be me, so sell all of your gold, now!).

Comments? Agree or disagree? Want to understand why someone is predicting what they are predicting? Post your questions or comments on the 2012 Predictions Board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum.

Thanks for reading, and predicting; see you next week, with some ideas on how to invest in 2012 (all suggestions welcome on that point as well).

The average prediction for the closing level of the Dow on December 21, 2011 was 10,892. Apparently we were somewhat too pessimistic, since the Dow actually closed at 12,217.56, or 12% higher than we expected. Congratulations go to ChrisC, who predicted a closing level of the Dow at 12,650. Well done. A year in advance, that’s about as close to “bang on” as you can get.

How did I do? Not well. I predicted that the Dow would lose 1,000 points each quarter, so my prediction of 12,000 on March 31, 2011 was within 300 points of perfection. My 10,000 prediction on September 30, 2011 was only off by 900 points from the actual level of 10,913. However my December 31, 2011 prediction of 9,000 was not even close to the actual 12,217 level.

Why was I so far off? Why were we all too pessimistic?

You could make the argument that we weren’t that far off. On October 3, 2011 the Dow closed at 10,655, the low point for the year, which was 854 points lower than the 11,509 level the Dow reached on September 16, 2011, a mere two weeks earlier. Had the Dow fallen a further 854 points in the remaining three months of the year, I would have been very close. If swings of 854 points in 11 trading days were not an unusual occurrence in 2011, a few more weeks either way makes a big difference.

I’m not trying to justify my lousy prediction. I was wrong. I admit it.

But I can’t help but wonder if there wasn’t some manipulation going on here.

The Dow peaked at 12,810 on April 29, 2011. On October 3, 2011 the Dow closed at 10,655, the low point for the year, a drop from peak to trough of 2,155 points, or almost 17%. That’s a big swing. That’s volatility.

And yet, on from December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2011 the Dow traveled from 11,577 to 12,217, a gain of 640 points, or 5.5%

When was the Dow last at 11,577? November 29, 2011.

That means that the entire gain for the year on the Dow occurred in the month of December. That’s not exactly a nice steady bull market rise. And let’s not forget that that the broader averages, like the S&P 500, ended the year flat, and the Nasdaq was actually down 1.8% on the year. I guess that means it’s easier to “paint the tape” in a 30 stock universe, than in a 500 stock index. Or perhaps in a “flight to safety” the lemmings all go for the big stocks.

Gold

The other area where I tested your predictive powers was the closing price of gold. Gold closed the year at $1,564.80; your average prediction was $1,621, so we were, on average, over-optimistic on the price of gold by 3.5%.

But again, timing is everything. When did gold last trade at $1,621? December 21. So, if 2011 had ended 7 trading days earlier, your average prediction would have been perfect.

Congratulations to JohnB, who predicted a closing price for gold of $1,650. That’s very good, only a deviation of 1.7% from the actual closing price.

As for me? I predicted that gold would hit $2,000 by year end. I was obviously over-optimistic. Or was I?

On August 23, 2011, and again on September 6, gold spiked well over $1,900 per ounce. On September 6 the intra-day high for the year hit $1,923.70. At that time I didn’t think a further gain of $76 over the final four months of the year was that big a stretch. But alas, it’s been down-hill ever since.

However, let’s not forget that gold was still up about 10% in 2011, and that’s the eleventh straight year that gold has risen.

Let me repeat: that’s 11 years in a row that gold has gone up in price. You can’t say the same for the Dow, or any other stock market index. That’s impressive.

So what will we see in 2012? I’ll provide my thoughts next week, but for now, it’s prediction time again.

Your Predictions for 2012

To participate in the 2012 prediction contest, please cut and paste the following section into an e-mail (replacing the XXXs with your predictions):

My name (no-one uses real names here; your Buy High Sell Higher Username is fine, or make up whatever handle you want): XXXX

I predict the Dow will close at the following levels, on the following days:

March 31, 2012 XXX

June 30, 2012 XXX

September 30, 2012 XXX

December 31, 2012 XXX

I predict the price of gold, in US dollars (assuming US dollars still exist) will close at the following levels, on the following days:

March 31, 2012 XXX

June 30, 2012 XXX

September 30, 2012 XXX

December 31, 2012 XXX

Here are my other totally random predictions (optional; such as your stock picks, the Super Bowl winner, whether or not the Mayans will be right, or whatever): XXX

That’s it. The deadline for submissions is January 2, 2012, before the markets open. You can post your predictions on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum, or simply e-mail them to me at predictions2012@buy-high-sell-higher.com. May the best predictor win.

Thanks for reading. Happy New Year. See you next year (and next week).

In a separate blog I have posted my thoughts on GLD vs Gold, so if you are interested in my thoughts on paper gold versus physical gold, please click the link.

This post is about our 2012 predictions contest, for which I offer no prize; you simply get the satisfaction of knowing you were the best predictor of the bunch.

As you will recall, your predictions for 2010 were almost perfect. You can read review your 2011 predictions to see how you are doing; it would appear you were overly pessimistic on your predictions for the Dow (but with the volatility in the markets there’s lots of time left), and your gold prediction is looking remarkably accurate.

Here’s the plan for 2012: Cut and paste the following section into an e-mail (replacing the XXXs with your predictions):

My name (no-one uses real names here; your Buy High Sell Higher Username is fine, or make up whatever handle you want): XXXX

I predict the Dow will close at the following levels, on the following days:

March 31, 2012 XXX

June 30, 2012 XXX

September 30, 2012 XXX

December 31, 2012 XXX

I predict the price of gold, in US dollars (assuming US dollars still exist) will close at the following levels, on the following days:

March 31, 2012 XXX

June 30, 2012 XXX

September 30, 2012 XXX

December 31, 2012 XXX

Here are my other totally random predictions (optional; such as your stock picks, the Super Bowl winner, whether or not the Mayans will be right, or whatever): XXX

That’s it. The deadline for submissions is January 2, 2012, before the markets open. You can post your predictions on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum, or simply e-mail them to me at predictions2012@buy-high-sell-higher.com. May the best predictor win. Next week I’ll reveal the 2011 winner, and you can see how I did.

Finally, as noted last week , I have re-opened the ability to register as a member on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum. The Forum generates a fair amount of spam, posted mostly by new members who join, post a spam message (an advertisement of some sort) and then disappear, never to be seen again. So, to combat the spam, I simply de-activated the ability for new members to register. However, as requested, new member registration is active again, perhaps for a limited time, depending on how much spam I get hit with. I’ve tightened up the spam controls, so we’ll see how it goes. This past week we’ve averaged about one new spam message a day, so I suspect I’ll be closing new registration at some point in the new year.

You may also register and post comments below each blog post on this site.

Thanks for reading; Merry Christmas; Happy Holidays; see you next week.

First, as I have done for the last three years, I am happy to give each of you the opportunity to make your predictions on where gold, and the Dow, will end 2012. Next Saturday, Christmas Eve, I’ll post the e-mail address where you can send your predictions, which will be due by January 2, 2012. More next week.

By the way, your predictions for 2010 were almost perfect. You can read review your 2011 predictions to see how you are doing; it would appear you were overly pessimistic on your predictions for the Dow (but with the volatility in the markets there’s lots of time left), and your gold prediction is looking remarkably accurate.

Second, as requested by a few of you, I have re-opened the ability to register as a member on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum. The Forum generates a fair amount of spam, posted mostly by new members who join, post a spam message (an advertisement of some sort) and then disappear, never to be seen again. So, to combat the spam, I simply de-activated the ability for new members to register. However, as requested, new member registration is active again, perhaps for a limited time, depending on how much spam I get hit with. I’ve tightened up the spam controls, so we’ll see how it goes.

You may also register and post comments below each blog post on this site.

Now, to the week that was.

Or, in this case, wasn’t.

The Dow was down, as were most other markets.

Gold got hammered. Gold traded at almost $1,720 on Monday, and almost touched $1,560 on Thursday, for a drop of over 9% in four days. And yes, with the close on Friday at $1,601, the 200 day moving average was broken for the first time since early 2009, almost three years ago. What does this imply?

It could be that the bull market in gold is over. All good things come to an end, and this may be it. It was a 10 year run, and now it’s time to sell and move to the safety of U.S. dollars, which is still the world’s reserve currency, simply because it’s the best of a bad lot.

But I doubt it.

I suspect that the Big Boyz are crashing the market to give themselves one more great opportunity to cover their shorts, which presumably happened this week.

I also suspect that in the stock market there was lots of tax loss selling going on, and why not? If you have losers, take the losses and redeploy your money into something else. If you own Gold Stock A, and it’s down, why not sell, take the loss, and put the money into Gold Stock B, which is selling at a bargain price? It makes sense.

I did not do any buying, or selling, this week. I don’t know if the sell off in gold is over, although I suspect that if it isn’t, it’s probably close.

So, as time permits, I’ll review the stink bid list and place some orders, and see what develops.

Beyond that, I haven’t a clue, so I’ll stop talking, until next week…

All is not good, because since the high for the year of 12,810 on April 29, we have experienced a series of lower highs (as indicated by the horizontal red lines on the above chart):

• July 7 at 12,719
• July 21 at 12,724 (which essentially formed the double top that lead to the massive summer drop)
• October 28 at 12,231
• December 7 at 12,196

See the problem? The Boyz keep doing their best to pump air into a flat tire, and for a period of time it sort of works, but only sort of. Then the laws of physics take over, and no matter how much air you pump in, you can’t inflate the tire to it’s former shape. More air gushes out, and the next round of tire inflation leaves you somewhat less inflated than before. Lather, rinse, repeat, over and over, with increasingly worse results.

Perhaps this isn’t surprising. The Eurozone is imploding, although every few weeks they manage to agree on a bailout, or whatever. The U.S. is also imploding, but at a slower rate, so it’s not surprising that the Dow is able to lurch forward before falling back.

Of course the same pattern is apparent with gold, with a series of lower highs:

Of course the difference with gold, as the blue uptrend line shows, is that we have also had a series of higher lows, indicating that despite all of the market manipulation, gold remains in a ten year uptrend.

So what’s ahead?

Eventually all the air in the world won’t inflate a flat tire, and down we will go. If I had to guess I would assume we will keep pumping until the end of the year, so that for the year the Dow can show a small gain (it’s up 5% year to date, although the S&P 500 is down over 2% year to date). By keeping the market positive for the year, the powers that be can say “see, all is good”, in the hopes of encouraging the sheeple to invest in stocks.

It won’t work, and the inevitable direction is much farther down, but that could be weeks, or months, from now.

In a general crash, everything will crash with it, including precious metals stocks. I suspect they will also be the first to rebound. So, the plan:

First, since it’s now tax loss season which puts pressure on losing stocks, you may want to sell your losers to free up cash (and save on taxes).

Second, because the losers will fall more than the winners during tax loss season, this would be a good time to place below market stink bids to pick up the companies you want. You will want to concentrate on companies with cash, since if we have another credit crisis arranging financing next year for projects will be difficult.

Third, keep your cash handy, because if we do get the crash, and then the inevitable flight to safety (ie. gold), the gold and silver stocks could go on the ride of a lifetime, and we will want to be well positioned.

For now, keep your bicycle pump handy.

Thanks for reading; see you next week.

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.
Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more:
it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
– Macbeth, by William Shakespeare, Macbeth’s soliloquy Act 5, Scene 5

Many people consider December to be the most magical month of the year.

I am not one of them.

I’ve got nothing against Christmas. I like presents. I like turkey. I even like winter in Canada. The cold doesn’t bother me, or the snow (of which we have had essentially none so far this year).

What I don’t like about December is all of the activity.

As I write this shortly at 7:30 am on Saturday morning, my wife and son #1 have already left for the school Christmas bazaar, where they will sell baked goods and what-nots for the day, to raise money for a student end of the year trip. Son #2 is still in bed, but we have our own activity this afternoon when I take him to a group violin practice, in preparation for a Christmas concert in two weeks. Tomorrow Son #2 and I get to leave the house at 6:30 am so I can take him to meet his team at school to then drive an hour to the University for a student-built-robot competition. Son #2 is 11 years old, so he thinks it’s pretty cool that he gets to go to university for a day. I suspect when I wake him up at 6:00 am on a Sunday he won’t find it quite as cool.

Last week was a school play. Next weekend, more concerts. And so it goes. Lots of activity.

I’m more of a “keep the activity to a minimum” kind of guy. But that’s just me. Activity after activity seems like a whole lot of “sound and fury”, and in the end, what does it signify? Perhaps nothing.

(Of course we all remember that William Faulkner borrowed Shakespeare’s words for his book The Sound and the Fury, a story about the decline of a well-to-do southern family, but I digress).

So why am I going off on my own soliloquy about the sound and fury, lots of action, signifying nothing? Take a look:

On February 1, 2011 the Dow closed at 12,040.16. On December 2, 2011 the Dow closed at 12,019.42. That’s 10 months of now action.

But of course there was lots of action, lots of volatility during that time period. On April 29 the Dow hit 12,810. On July 22 it was still at 12,681. Then by September 23 it had “crashed” all the way down to 10,771, a “peak to trough” decline of 15%. Then the bounce back up to 12,231 on October 28, a recovery of 13.5%, and that’s approximately where we are today.

That’s a whole lot of sound and fury and volatility to get nowhere.

But is it fair to say that nothing is happening? Is it fair to say that JDH going to lots of Christmas activities is sound and fury, signifying nothing?

No, that’s not fair. From my perspective attending a concert for an hour and a half to hear one of my sons play for three minutes may seem unproductive. But for a young person with limited experience being up in front of a crowd, the experience of practicing, working towards a goal, and then conquering your fears and accomplishing something is, in reality, quite a good thing. You have to look below the surface to see what’s actually happening.

What is actually happening? Take a look:

While the Dow has not moved since February, the same statement cannot be made about gold. At the end of January gold was around $1,300 per ounce, the low point for the year. Gold peaked over $1,900 in late August and early September, and despite a “crash” to below $1,600 in September, today gold sits comfortably above all of the trend lines at $1,748, a nice comfortable 34% increase since the end of January.

That increase doesn’t “signify nothing”.

It signifies the continued debasement of the currency, and it signifies the slow but steady retreat from paper assets to something more tangible.

It would be nice if all of my gold and silver stocks were up 34% from the low, but alas that’s not the case. Most are up, but you would expect that with the leverage to the gold price if gold is up 34% the stocks should be a double. They aren’t.

But that’s fine. The hockey game is very rarely decided in the first period. If it’s football and if Tim Tebow is playing, the game isn’t decided until the last minute.

It takes a lot of patience to sit through a Christmas concert. It takes a lot of patience to sit through a manipulated stock market where the powers that be can manipulate a stock market back up to a nice round number like 12,000, and can work to keep gold under nice round numbers like 1,900 and 1,800. But in the end patience is rewarded. Gold, and the underlying stocks will eventually find their true level.

And the Christmas concert will end.

Thanks for reading; see you next week.