Black Swans...

[MetalMeister]

OL, ran across this.  Thought you might like it.   

A little old but still a goody!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLFkQdiXPbo

[onlooker]

YC:

Yeah, this video is still a goody!     For anyone with money still in the markets, this video should be viewed from time to time to remind him / her of the possibility of another black swan coming  and trade accordingly. 

Both experts made a lot of logical sense to me.  Mr. Taleb’s body language and voice shows that he is genuinely worried.  I should be too.

[onlooker]

An unstoppable Black Swan event occurring?

If ...  the worst-case scenario described in the article below happens, then the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico will turn into a worldwide economic and environmental catastrophic event.

See:

Oil Spill: Here's The Inside Scoop

Submitted by George Washington on 05/02/2010 18:33 -0500

The Gulf oil spill is much worse than originally believed.

As the Christian Science Monitor writes:

It's now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day.

Independent scientists estimate that the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to 25,000 barrels a day. If chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.

CNN quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.

Indeed, an environmental document filed by the company running the oil drilling rig - BP - estimates the maximum as 162,000 barrels a day:

~    ~    ~

Worst-Case Scenario

As the Associated Press notes:

Experts warned that an uncontrolled gusher could create a nightmare scenario if the Gulf Stream carries it toward the Atlantic.
This would, in fact, be very bad, as it would carry oil far up the Eastern seaboard.

Specifically, as the red arrows at the left of the following drawing show, the Gulf Stream runs from Florida up the Eastern Coast of the United States:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-spill-how-bad

[MetalMeister]

Onlooker,

Thanks for that post, previously, I missed that when I was away, I guess.

Here is a mid May outlook from the Black Swan himself:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nassim-taleb-we-are-going-have-some-point-failed-auction

[onlooker]

YC:

The leaking oil from the damaged riser pipe scenario has gotten worse.  It has been reported that the leaking oil is now more stronger than before.   
SEE: 

TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2010
Is BP Trying to Cover Up New Activity at Disaster Site?

At about 7:00pm EST, the BP live cam showed a sudden explosive occurrence - possibly two - taking place at the leak site, with the amount of oil increasing rapidly and the color of the outflow changing to a lighter hue.

http://metaoceanic.blogspot.com/2010/05/is-bp-trying-to-cover-up-new-activity.html

[onlooker]

Here’s a SHTF posting on how bad it is in the areas closest to gushing oil leak.

TideFighter’s May 26, 2010 quote:

I was waiting for..and am grateful that you made that above post. I know you were unconcerned about the oil spew at your location, but I am going out on boats and flying in helos to and from many areas just south of you. Just read all of my posts where I posted information that was anywhere from 2 days ahead of news media to sometimes more than a week ahead of news media. By no means, am I trying to toot my own horn. I'm too tired to toot. But the sub-surface oil levels are so tremendous that these "landings" could appear for the next 20 years, or more. The congealed oil could be hanging up on reefs or floor topographic rises only to appear after a good storm. One measure gone unreported, the slicks are reforming at different weights and levels-this really scares me as I cannot make calculations of slicks all at one level-they don't exist. Future landings, therefore, could appear at any time, from any depth, and stay (cleanup) rolling in for hugely variant time lengths. If the oil was allowed to stay on surface, skimming could have continued day and night, oil slicks tracked, bring in the Corps of Engineers and Navy, and use thousands of boats all coordinated by GPS mapping and scurrying from place to place to minimize affects.

My point is extremely relevant and your post is extremely important too. Your initial reaction is what I am up against over here in the panhandle on a daily basis. I've not screamed, "It's the end of the world" but rather told people to "please, please, prepare", the same that anyone would do for a hurricane. The preparation is not just get food and water stored, that's obvious. What is not obvious is to collect vasts amounts of data, pictures, interviews, etc. that can be used for the rounds and rounds of litigation to follow. Expect our home and business insurance companies to fail under the pressure of initial claims + ongoing claims. I've got three statements from FEMA saying it is doubtful that FEMA will be involved in paying claims. BP will have no assets-theirs being stripped by EPA. Who in the *ell is going to pay claims? Will this be like the stock market, "board up in May and go away?" This will come down to suing the incompetent government officials that are most likely to win, unless vast amounts of data are presented that show how incompetent they were, that nobody was taking responsible actions, and while they were partying downtown New Orleans almost every night, were they using government credit cards?

Doesn't everybody see that this oil spew has to fall on the liability of the government, or am I the only one out front on this? Don't post that it was BP's fault, blah, blah, blah, and they should be held accountable. They won't have the assets to sue, they are soon to be broke, and making themselves more judgment proof every day. The blame has to be pointed directly at the government, sans the terrific Coast Guard and the work they are trying to do, despite having incompetent bosses with strictly political agendas.

ANYBODY, reading these posts from Texas to Tampa to Palm Beach-get as much data as possible. I am making an online database that can be accessed for a small fee that will contain data and pictures as Plaintiff's evidence for legal actions. The fee will pay an IT guy 24/7 to help/assist property and business owners retrieve data. After much thought, this approach is better than going to news and getting shut down on new info coming in. We must crouch down like tigers and stalk our victims silently-while preparing for the kill. It's the only way.

For all you guys on the government dime that hit the NO night life, didn't Elliot's Client #9 teach you anything? You don't think that $50 hookers talk? How did you sleep, over at the Marriott, when workers are getting sick and oil continues to roll in. It's 3:00 a.m. right now where I am, and I can't sleep. In fact, I'm really fortunate to get 2 hours a night. My 2010 car has 37,000 miles on it-and it has not been north of I-10. But, all of your meetings, which half of you miss the conference room if scheduled at or before 8:00 (hangover) resulted in nothing anyway.

BTW, if you think the oil disaster in the marshes is close to the peak, consider this. Less than 1% of the oil that's coming to shore in those marshes has already arrived. This is what I've been stumping about. This disaster will continue for many, many years. All of these "rankings" about being in the top ten spills, yadda yadda, what numbers are you using? Are you counting the fact the Corexit 9500 has been used to "sink" as much as 90% of the oil? Are you ranking this spill based upon what is on top of the water? Isn't that a bit miscalculated and short-sided?

Again, if you live 0-50 miles north of the ocean, PLEASE have a contingency plan. Have a plan to remove your clothing, paintings, pictures, bedding, drapes, rugs, anything paper or cloth. These items, less likely to be paid for true value, should be spared. Not now, just be ready to move them.

Go to Costco or other big box mart and get those large rolls of plastic to wrap electronics and furniture. Go around same over and over until you feel that you have made them air tight. This would be stage II, just preparing furniture and electronics for move. You can easily make your own "vacuum" by cutting small round hole in plastic and using PVC pipe-then your vacuum cleaner to suck out air-tape over hole and check for leaks. This works extremely well for paintings and pictures in frames.

Know where to get U-Haul or other trailer and truck for Stage III, actually moving your wrapped items and moving them to storage or new living area at least 150-200 miles north of ocean. You can always bring them back later on. Get your storage space now-they are starting to dwindle down.

Have food and plenty of bottled water (gee, don't we all do this for hurricane season anyway?) to make trips moving furniture and other items. Buy whatever masks you can afford, from simple painter's masks at Home Depot or medical supply stores to elaborate ventilators found in surplus stores or on the Internet.

Get out your insurance policy and actually read it. Know where you stand. Call your agent. Know your procedure for filing claims. It will result in much less stress, believe me.

Wax your cars. Really. Wax them to protect the paint. Consider buying enough plastic to cover expensive landscaping (rarely covered by insurance) on really "bad" days. Yes, we will have really bad days. If you can afford to paint your house, do so now. Take pictures immediately after you paint. Take pictures of your landscaping. Take pictures of producing fruit and nut trees.

If the smell is inside your house, empty and shut off your refrigerator. Try to enter/leave your house as little as possible and store several boxes of a/c filters and change them frequently.

Cover an area with tarp or plastic to pull back for your pets to go to bathroom. DO NOT walk them through woods, grass, etc. as chemicals will accumulate in their fur and paws. It is very tough to get a dog or cat to wear a mask, so they should be moved at stage I.

Have enough gas to get you to your safety zone. If you have a small generator, or can afford to buy one, now is the time. I have several air cleaning units to introduce, and the factories that produce them will make them available at their wholesale factory price (60% savings). I would only buy these if you decide to return, whether the "all clear" has been given or not. Why take chances. These units remove particulates and other dangerous stuff. I'll have a factory number where you can deal with them direct. More later....

[onlooker]

Scientists have reported that there is a mile long floating underwater oil plume(s) which is creating havoc in the oceans.  Because the earth’s oceans currents are borderless, this oil plume(s) could (IMO, will) eventually impact locations other than the Gulf of Mexico – like Canada, Iceland, Africa …  …  …  …   

See: 

May 16th, 2010 6:38 PM

TEN-MILE OIL PLUME FOUND BENEATH SURFACE OF GULF OF MEXICO
Spilled oil coagulating up to 1,300 metres below surface and as far as 20 miles away from sunk Deepwater Horizon rig

By Ed Pilkington / Guardian

http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/latest-news/ten-mile-oil-plume-found-beneath-surface-gulf-mexico

[onlooker]

It is suggested that the oil spew could be coming from a pierced wellbore deep in the seabed.

See: 

Senator confirms reports that wellbore is pierced; oil seeping from seabed in multiple places

By oilflorida, on June 7th, 2010

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/senator-confirms-reports-that-wellbore-is-pierced-oil-seeping-from-seabed-in-multiple-places

See:  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/37556075#37556075

What may occur as a solution to finally stop oil spew (S.O.S) in the Gulf of Mexico?

See:  http://www.businessinsider.com/how-a-nuke-could-plug-the-oil-well-2010-5

If there is news of nuking in the Gulf of Mexico, what will happen to the US stock market?  Oil stocks?  Precious metals?  Comments?

[sunseeker]

Hi OL

A very interesting concept. Someone also commented below that MOABs of the type used in Afghanistan would also be an option (safer and less controversial).

I expect that the drill hole that they would have to make to get the explosive in the right position would be equally as time consuming as the relief hole they are drilling which should stop the flow of oil. However it wouldn’t have done any harm for the US Government to insist that BP prepare for an explosive device at the same time just in case that plan fails (surely someone in authority knew about the Russian experience). If that part of the project was completed first they would also have the option to denominate at a point even before the relief hole was completed. After all as we can see it’s not an untried strategy and looks to have a very good chance of success.
The lesson?
IMO it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make it compulsory that a relief well is in place on all oil wells (new/existing/potential), and that this facility is proven to be effective (just in case it's needed).

ATB 

[onlooker]

SS:

IMO it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make it compulsory that a relief well is in place on all oil wells (new/existing/potential), and that this facility is proven to be effective (just in case it's needed).

If what is told in the following interview is true, then it means that BP’s Deep Horizontal oil well was drilled into a magma chamber.

See: 

Lindsey Williams Talks with Alex Jones About Deadly Gases Leaking from BP Spill 3/9
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adiZE3cwYDM

Therefore, if BP’s relief well hit another magma chamber in the Gulf of Mexico, then it will NOT serve to ease up the natural upward pressure of the gushing oil from the damaged Deep Horizon oil well riser.

Instead, another explosion to the relief oil rig may occur because there is currently no safety device to deal with a suspected oil pressure as high as 70,000 psi coming from a magma chamber.

~  ~  ~   ~   ~

And the comments on deadly gases leaking with the gushing oil must be noted. 

[sunseeker]

SS:

IMO it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make it compulsory that a relief well is in place on all oil wells (new/existing/potential), and that this facility is proven to be effective (just in case it's needed).

If what is told in the following interview is true, then it means that BP’s Deep Horizontal oil well was drilled into a magma chamber.

See: 

Lindsey Williams Talks with Alex Jones About Deadly Gases Leaking from BP Spill 3/9
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adiZE3cwYDM

Therefore, if BP’s relief well hit another magma chamber in the Gulf of Mexico, then it will NOT serve to ease up the natural upward pressure of the gushing oil from the damaged Deep Horizon oil well riser.

Instead, another explosion to the relief oil rig may occur because there is currently no safety device to deal with a suspected oil pressure as high as 70,000 psi coming from a magma chamber.

~  ~  ~   ~   ~

And the comments on deadly gases leaking with the gushing oil must be noted. 

Hi Onlooker
VERY INTERESTING POST.

 

The funny thing was that it was only the other day that I was thinking about “Yellowcaked” and his Lindsey Williams post and the prediction about a series of manufactured events that would lead to Gulf Oil Producing going bankrupt (amongst other things), so that this shadowy group of people he mentions can cleanup financially.

http://www.disinfo.com/2010/06/vatican-official-tied-to-bp-goldman-sachs-and-media-censorship-in-the-oil-fiasco/

“News unfolding from the oil crisis in the Gulf of Mexico has linked media censorship to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs (GS) stewarding the Vatican’s wealth, and increasing evidence that the explosion was intended.
A near total news blackout from independent sources, and arrests of anyone caught photographing and filming the devastation, show the Halliburton-British Petroleum (BP) oil crisis is being criminally controlled, implicating some of Wall Street’s heaviest hitters.”

http://www.welcomethelight.com/2010/06/goldman-sachs-sold-44-of-bp-stock-3-weeks-before-blowout/

“Goldman Sachs Sold 44% Of BP Stock 3 Weeks Before Blowout”

http://www.welcomethelight.com/2010/06/bp-chief-tony-hayward-sold-shares-weeks-before-oil-spill/

“Tony Hayward cashed in about a third of his holding in the company one month before a well on the Deepwater Horizon rig burst, causing an environmental disaster.”

COINCIDENCE?

From what we’ve heard this could be the road that leads BP to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2010-06-10/bp-chapter11-takeover

“But there isn't enough money in the world to clean up the Gulf of Mexico. Once BP realises the extent of this my guess is that they'll panic and go into Chapter 11.”

BP is a worldwide company so then we’d then find out the knock on effect of such a move on its operations throughout the world, on other oil companies, and yes those predictions that Lindsey Williams made in the post from “Yellowcake”  http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/peak-oil-lindsey-williams-and-others-t1135.0.html;msg13488#msg13488 ).
…………………………….
Then there’s the other companies involved in the incident which may yet have to shoulder some of the blame/costs.

http://menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId={07E2F072-AAFB-4C27-A4C9-30B8262586B2}

 

“Tudor Pickering Holt analysts estimated a financial impact of $35 billion to $45 billion for BP and other firms linked to the disaster including Anadarko Petroleum, which owns a 25% interest in the ruptured Macondo well, and Transocean Ltd, which owned the Deepwater Horizon rig.
Cameron International manufactured the blowout preventer at the top of the leaking well, and Halliburton performed the cementing job on the well prior to the April 20 blast.”

http://www.inthesetimes.com/working/entry/5973/what_sank_the_deepwater_horizon/

“Tim Probert, Halliburton's top health and safety officer, blamed the blowout protector. Certainly, if the BOP had worked, the oil wouldn't have spilled—but that's a separate question from whether Halliburton's cement job was adequate. Probert admitted under questioning by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) that Halliburton tested the seals on the plug, but not the material itself. Halliburton recommends that the cement be tested, but they ultimately follow the directions of the well owner, i.e., Transocean.”

I don’t know about DEEPWATER it’s more like



In any language.

ATB

[onlooker]

Here is one blogger’s l – o – n - g and well researched expose on the real reason why oil is still spewing out into the Gulf of Mexico.

See: 

Bombshell expose'. The real reason the oil still flows into the Gulf of Mexico.

Added: Sunday, May 30th 2010 at 10:48am by JoAnneMor

As you know, the Deep Water Horizon has exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. It has been spewing oil from a ruptured wellpipe for over a month.

BP and the US Government has said they are trying everything possible to stop that multi million gallon oil from continuing to flow into the Gulf.

I am about to dispute that claim and offer an expose' as to why that story about them doing everything possible is a lie and a profitable enterprise to those who would make money from this disaster.

The Top Kill method was started and suspended several times. It was being attempted only half heartedly. The reason is, there is no money to be made with a solution that simple.

The real money is in the use of dispersants.

There is a company called NALCO. They make .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .    .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .

http://www.blogster.com/joannemor/bombshell-expose-the-real-reason-the-oil-still-flows-into-the-gulf-of-mexico

[sunseeker]

Here is one blogger’s l – o – n - g and well researched expose on the real reason why oil is still spewing out into the Gulf of Mexico.

See: 

Bombshell expose'. The real reason the oil still flows into the Gulf of Mexico.

Added: Sunday, May 30th 2010 at 10:48am by JoAnneMor

As you know, the Deep Water Horizon has exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. It has been spewing oil from a ruptured wellpipe for over a month.

BP and the US Government has said they are trying everything possible to stop that multi million gallon oil from continuing to flow into the Gulf.

I am about to dispute that claim and offer an expose' as to why that story about them doing everything possible is a lie and a profitable enterprise to those who would make money from this disaster.

The Top Kill method was started and suspended several times. It was being attempted only half heartedly. The reason is, there is no money to be made with a solution that simple.

The real money is in the use of dispersants.

There is a company called NALCO. They make .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .    .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  .  .  .

http://www.blogster.com/joannemor/bombshell-expose-the-real-reason-the-oil-still-flows-into-the-gulf-of-mexico

Hi OL

It's not a disaster for everyone then:

The real money is in the use of dispersants.

There is a company called NALCO. They make water purification systems and chemical dispersants.

NALCO is based in Chicago with subsidiaries in Brazil, Russia, India, China and Indonesia.

NALCO is associated with UChicago Argonne program. UChicago Argonne received $164 million dollars in stimulus funds this past year. UChicago Argonne just added two new executives to their roster. One from NALCO. The other from the Ill. Dept of Education.


If you dig a little deeper you will find NALCO is also associated with Warren Buffett, Maurice Strong, Al Gore, Soros, Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Hathaway Berkshire.”

Why is it that after any crisis/disaster the name that comes up every time is "Goldman Sachs" ?

ATB 

 

[Beginner]

Since the stock market is presently in the doldrums what better way to pass the time than with a competition to see who can discover the most outrageous theory. How about this one for starters:


Submitted by BassMan2 on 15. May 2010 - 11:31
Thom's nationally syndicated radio show

This hasn't seemed to have gotten much circulation yet, and I think it really needs to. Seems that a crew from Schlumberger, on contract to BP, hightailed it off the platform at their own expense 6 hours before the blowout becuase BP refused their recommendation to shut down the well.
This lends more credence to Thom's suggestion that corners were cut because the bigwigs were coming for a visit.

"BP contracted Schlumberger (SLB) to run the Cement Bond Log (CBL) test that was the final test on the plug that was skipped.
The people testifying have been very coy about mentioning this, and you’ll see why.

SLB is an extremely highly regarded (and incredibly expensive) service company.
They place a high standard on safety and train their workers to shut down unsafe operations.

SLB gets out to the Deepwater Horizon to run the CBL, and they find the well still kicking heavily, which it should not be that late in the operation. SLB orders the company man (BPs man on the scene that runs the operation) to dump kill fluid down the well and shut-in the well.
 
The company man refuses. SLB in the very next sentence asks for a helo to take all SLB personnel back to shore.
The company man says there are no more helos scheduled for the rest of the week (translation: youre here to do a job, now do it).
 
SLB gets on the horn to shore, calls SLBs corporate HQ, and gets a helo flown out there at SLBs expense and takes all SLB personel to shore.

6 hours later, the platform explodes."

More at: http://adropofrain.net/2010/05/rumor-schlumberger-exits-deep-horizon-hou...

[sunseeker]

Hi Beginner
Good post. It’s good to hear from you again. It’s been fairly quiet around here of late, so the more the merrier (big hint to some less than active members). 

It’s all over for BP unless they can mount a good defence against all these allegations etc. There should be more protection in law for “whistle blowers” so that all the facts come out in the open and as quickly as possible.

I don’t know if you listened to Onlookers Lindsey Williams link (9 in all).
The oil cleanup is the least of BP’s problems. The health problems associated from the toxic gases being released (eventually making it to shore) will give BP the bigger headache. Any health problems (whether they be as a result of the disaster or not) that arise in the population from here on in will be a potential law suit against the company. In the final analysis it will fall on BP to prove that they aren't liable. That will prove long, costly, and difficult.

BP (it seems) has drilled into a batholith (magma chamber/part of a volcanic system). The fractures may have spread 20 miles or more. The pressure levels of this discharge (according to Williams) are in the region of 20,000 to 70,000 psi. If he is to be believed there's no technology in existence able to control pressures of that magnitude.
 
Volatile organic compounds are being released in the atmosphere:

Hydrogen sulphide.  Safe levels 5 to 10 parts per billion (PPB). Official measured level in the area, 1,200 pbb.

Benzene. Safe levels 0.024 pbb. Measured level in the area 3,000 ppb.

Methylene Chloride. Safe levels 61 ppb.  Measured in the area 3,000 to 3,400 ppb.

Surly someone must be considering blowing the whole thing up (Nuke or MOABs) now.

“June 14 (Bloomberg) -- The fastest-growing bet on BP Plc in the U.S. stock-options market shows traders expect a 63 percent plunge in about a month as costs surge for its uncontrolled well spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a44A4e_Mc_ts&pos=4

“10 Thoughts for Those Buying (or Selling) BP…”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/10-thoughts-for-those-buying-bp/


ATB