Martin Armstrong

[JDH]

I didn't bother mentioning this in my weekly commentary, but for our amusement today is the day that Martin Armstrong appears to have predicted a near term top in the market.  For those who don't know, Martin Armstrong eventually pleaded guilty and is currently serving time in jail for fraud (so we know he's credible  ).

Here's a nice concise explanation of what he's predicting: http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/a-forecaster-you-cant-afford-to-ignore-14722.aspx

Here's the link to pdf file of his entire long essay, written presumably on a typewriter from prison: http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf.

My guess is he's a nut; however, if enough people believe he is brilliant we could be in for a bad period in the markets.  Futures are down slightly as I write this, but that means little this early in the morning.  Time will tell.

[sidewinder]

Thanks for mentioning that JDH.  I avoided bringing it up not wanting to push anything.  You will recall I brought this to the boards attention a few months ago. 

Nuts or not he makes a strong case for his Economic Confidence Model and I know people that have been in this business for many years who are aware of his work.  Since Mandlebrot's studies and having observed the work of David Elliott on patterns and waves for the past 2 years I would have to say that I am more confused than ever about such things.  All I know is I have watched these patterns and cycles unfold real time but I guess cognitive dissonance prevents me from having total confidence is any of these theories.  One thing for sure, I am closely watching the scenario play out in real time.   It may be months before we can tell anything about what this all means. 

BTW this date by Armstrong's own words is not as accurate as the major peaks as this wave is an intermediante peak in a much larger down move that started at the endo of '07 and runs to almost the middle of 2011 bottom I believe.  perhaps "it's just time"LOL

[onlooker]

You mentioned that Martin Armstrong’s  April 19, 2009 date turned into a non-financial event.

However, do note that since his “It’s Just Time” article dated October 10, 2008, he has written more than new ten articles.

Most of these articles can be found on Nathan’s Economic Edge Blog dated April 9, 2009.

See http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-article-anthology.html

Knowing the show me the quick money attitude of some readers (myself included) in your forum, I am going to immediately point out which article may be of interest to them.

It would be the one with the title:  Destroying Capital Formation dated March 23, 2009.  See pages 11, 12, 13 and 14.

Armstrong gives his predictions for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, US dollar and gold.

Armstrong writes that April 19, 1999 is just an idealized target date.  My best interpretation of this article is that the outcome of April – May 2009 will determine the timing of the lows.  That this current rally is a sucker’s rally, and the real low for the stock markets will be later this summer or fall, depending on the next few weeks.   Keep in mind that I am relatively new to investing into the markets, so it is best if you make your own interpretation of his predictions.

And for readers interested in Wall Street corruption, his articles are most interesting to read.

We will soon see if he still has visionary insights or has acquired delusional thoughts due to his lengthy time spent in jail.  Maybe he has both.

[sidewinder]

Onlooker, thanks for reminding me to check for more articles from Armstrong.

Just read the latest "Behind the curtain" and that was AFTER my tirade yesterday about GS.  All I can say is where there is smoke there is fire. 

Crazy, eccentric, or whatever I share many of his views.

you can view that article here.

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html

[sunseeker]

Hi SW
The way I read Armstrong he suggests leeway of one week either side of 23rd April. So it may not be “just time” quite yet. I registered for the e mail updates but I haven’t received one yet, so thank you very much for posting the latest article. For anyone wanting to save or print the article I have found  this PDF link.
http://documents.scribd.com/docs/1k970e41g36t0e97dyjd.pdf

I have taken some profits here and there. Sold my PNP for almost 40% profit. It was just too good a profit to turn my back on. As DSL has said in the past April can be the start of the downturn for U's. The U's still look to have legs but if you’re happy why take the risk.  Sorry that I haven’t posted for a while but we have been away from home a lot (and I haven’t had anything worthwhile to say anyway). I value all of your opinions and although I may be quiet rest assured that I am taking interest in everything that you post.
ATB GTLA.

[Bottomfeeder]

Thanks for checking in SS....I am looking to close out some PNP as well, looking for a breakout though first to sell into.  Trading at the bottom of the channel, I am thinking it has 1.40-1.50 in it.  I have a mental stop in at 1.10. 

Good job though, anytime you can make 40% in what 2-3 months, nice one.

[sunseeker]

Hi BF
I’ve used up more than my fair share of luck clawing back losses this year.
I was extremely lucky that the US government bailed out AIG. I hadn’t even realised the extent that some of my largest positions (safe) depended upon AIG’s backing to survive. There is a lot of controversy this side of the pond over losses incurred in investments backed by Lehman Bros. They were sold as being 100% safe. I guess even100% safe isn’t enough anymore. There but for the grace of god go I.
 
We are in uncharted territory. I don’t want to read posts from anyone on this forum over having to take horrendous losses.
Take very good care everyone.

[Bottomfeeder]

I hear ya Sunseeker,

My dad is in alot of annutities and I was trying to explain to him my interpretation of things as he was compalining about government bailouts of AIG , he didn't quite understand, which is understandable.

I am glad that they did it, just for the sake of our seniors who would have really been pounded thinking that they were safe.

It is a shame that these same people still dont understand the risk aspect of this, so that they could shore themselves up a bit.  I am kind of lost in knowing how to better help my dad on this subject.

Very sad and scary.

[onlooker]

Sidewinder, it should be me thanking you, a strong believer in stock charting for having an open mind to introduce Martin Armstrong to this website. 

I think that some of Martin’s findings on Wall Street are just the truth and nothing but the truth.

To me, he is in the same rare league of tell all and truthfully financial analysts as William Black, and Meredith Whitney.

William Black is a former senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. He currently exposes the big banks to be not just greedy but to be fraudulent.

In 2007, Meredith Whitney, a Wall Street analyst studied banks.  She called out the Citigroup to be crap and she was right.

Meredith Whitney is the only analyst on Wall Street willing to speak her mind.  She is not willing to preserve the illusion that the foundations of the Wall Street banks are built on solid rock.  She has since received death threats. 

Back to Martin Armstrong, reporter Nina Metha, in October 2000 reported him saying “I am the guy who knows all the dirty little secrets and how the SEC and CFTC will never go after the big boys because it will destroy much of Wall Street if the truth ever gets out.  They want the average person to believe the markets are fair and safe because they regulate them.”

So, I conclude that some of Armstrong’s articles are not just about having visionary insights, but about true financial Wall Street skeletons which he discovered back in the 1990’s.

He has written two more articles which can be found here:

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-but-they-cant-do-that.html

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-answering-your.html

[jjj000]

"I have also been warned that things I write are being altered and resubmitted on the web" - M. Armstrong

Talk about a real mindf*ck there... now a conspiracy regarding Armstrong's own articles online being "doctored"

What if the Armstrong name/legend is being used online to spread misinformation/bearish targets while the backroom GS money club boys wait to load up and kill shorts???

I mean, really, how do any of us know these articles are at all legit and not complete BS, without actually sitting in a visitation room across the glass from the guy?  It's all just coming off a random blog or two...

Good thing none of us are making any investment decisions based on that stuff 

[sidewinder]

Onlooker,

Way back in another life, I was involved in a small but intimate way in a very large buyout deal.  So large in fact it involved 6 of the largest investment banks in the world.  I have sat in some very nice board rooms in some brand name buildings in NY.  Without going into any detail (it’s far too complicated) I have personally witnessed the sharks in action.  With billions involved, the fees these investment banks got during this time stagger the imagination.  I mean guys you never heard of get fees in the millions in one of these large deals for doing almost nothing.  The waste, the deception, the arrogance are all simply practically unbelievable.  This is why I don’t doubt anything this man says.  It would be nice to say someday the truth will come out but unfortunately, that is not the case.  With a system so corrupt and so far reaching, I feel that will never happen.
 
Guys like Armstrong will be made to seem crazy and sinister, or in his case put away.  Folks like Whitney and Bill Black while allowed some exposure, will be ignored like many whistle blowers and brushed aside like any pest.  The media is heavily influenced by their owners and as one man told me during this time.  “It is more about perception than anything else.” 

I had never heard of Armstrong until about 6 months ago when doing some research into cycles and waves in the stock market led me to his writings.  I am interested in his economic confidence models and of course his case is made in some of his written articles.  It appears he has become simply a political prisoner in a country that touts its Constitution and Rule of Law as a shining example to the rest of the world.  But alas, I have no dog in that fight.  I truly hope he is not made silent because I want to learn more of his theory and understand it better.  The guy could be a genius or just another smart guy in jail with a vivid imagination only time will tell.
 
Having my very limited exposure to the machine that is big business, I can certainly believe any of the things I have read in Armstrong’s explanation of his problems.  His assessment of the current economic crisis, the government’s reaction, the likely course that will be followed and the likely devastating economic price we will pay seem spot on.  The truly disturbing part is the social price we are likely to pay.  I feel truly helpless in this regard and like every citizen am just along for the ride.

 Advancing in years (I tell everyone I have somewhere between 6 months and 20 years of life left) with the end of the ride in sight I want my country back.  I want the country that was described to me by my grandfather and my history teachers when I was a little boy.  I want the country that my dad fought for on Iwo Jima; my grandfathers fought for in WWI and the civil war.  I want America, the greatest and most compassionate country in modern history back.  Not this land ruled by Marmelukes running a command economy and inhabited by economic slaves. 

And that’s all I have to say about that.

[sidewinder]

jjjooo,  It is the internet you know.   How much can you believe about anything.  I certainly am not making investment decisions on any one factor.  Think we have discussed that to no end.  I would like to know which articles he says are "doctored".

Now try this one on for size.

What if the Armstrong name/legend is being used online to spread misinformation/bearish targets while the backroom GS money club boys wait to load up and kill shorts???

What if that rumor itself is put into place to put doubt in the mind about the veracity of the rumor.  i.e. your comment above to wait and load up and kill the longs???   Like I said it's all about perception.

Trading is fun .... no?   

[onlooker]

Sidewinder:

I hear the sadness combined with the anger that you and many other well informed Americans feel when you now encounter articles or commentaries by  certifiably sane and noble financial analysts like William Black or Meredith Whitney (for doubter jjj000, I agree to not include Martin Armstrong).

But, one has to learn about the political / financial shenanigans; and then think about how to best protect or divert investments so that he/she does not get whacked in the future.  To stay far ahead of the game.

By the way, with your technical charting skills, I think you will successfully manoeuvre around market pitfalls.

And, I do feel your heartfelt grief for what is happening in America.

[jjj000]

What if that rumor itself is put into place to put doubt in the mind about the veracity of the rumor.  i.e. your comment above to wait and load up and kill the longs???   Like I said it's all about perception.

Trading is fun .... no?   

hah... well... I pretty much just started that rumor myself right there, drawing some far out conclusions from a word or two I read online.  And as far as I know I don't work for Goldman Sachs unless they implanted a chip in me at birth a la Manchurian Candidate

I'm just trying to play devil's advocate to my own self, making sure I don't allow myself to hear what I want to hear... just because I want to hear it.  I start lots of rumors... my current one is that Michelle Obama wanted a photo of Air Force on by the Statue of Liberty and caused all that stupidity the other day.

But yes, definitely fun.  And thanks again for sharing your thoughts in general above.  Every word hits home... and being young (though not as young as I used to be)... the pressure to try and enact change is overwhelming, particularly in the face of so many who are happily drinking the kool-aid.


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Onlooker, thanks for sharing as well.  I am not a doubter though in any way... just trying to make sure I don't follow anything too blindly.  I'll look into Whitney, had not heard of her before.


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on a side note... how about that trading day today?  CRAZY.

The last 90 minutes of FAZ was a technician's dream.  It performed pretty much perfectly to expectation, coming down to exact support, rocketing up to exact resistance, bouncing exactly off the uptrend line, then breaking down exactly as that line was penetrated to come back down and test next level of support.  FNH, FNL.

BTW, the intraday spike up today to S&P 882 is the kind of think I look for as a top (or bottom) indicator.  Things snapped back pretty hard from that point... could see a 20pt drop tomorrow.  I'm not calling it, but... ok, yes I am.  Heh.

Uraniums going crazy still.  BF - you got my top target on MGA now.  Actually pretty much all of our targets   I'm not giving any advice here, but if I were you I'd take some profits.  Dang if I had bought on that dip to 1.50 the other day like I was thinking of... that would have been a nice 50% gain right there.  I'd be a seller today had I done that.

Strange that gold and gold stocks moved up today as well.  Set up for another sell off??

Even energy stocks (oils) are moving up... despite oil spot being generally the same place it was a month ago (or in November).  These are signs of market euphoria to me.  Heck, I'll ride it out as much as I can... but I have one foot out the door...

[sidewinder]

yea jjj how bout that FAZ.   That thing's been scalped more than the 7th US Cavalry.  I waiting for it to get near $0 before going in.