Stock Market - April 14-18

[Croaker]

Well GE made the market drop. I think they will get 3-5% back on Monday or not. Since GE is well rounded into the economy, I am just guessing it made people nerves about the economy. Mmmmmm........ you think.

[davidslane]

I know everyone has taken my advice and reads John Mauldin every weekend.


But if not, read this week's issue from a guest writer.
It's a must to understand what to expect the next few years.


http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2008/04/11/is-it-a-bull-bear-or-cowardly-lion-market.aspx

[dananini]

David, I was just logging on to suggest the same read.Great simple stuff.I will never look at investing the same.Buy on sale,sell at fair value,not higher (bubble waiting to burst).

[john77]

However,

" A buy-and-hold strategy (which is often just buy and forget to sell)"

means that those far far underwater have a while to wait, like with the Dines picks.

Oh well... perhaps Merv will help with the timing of a turn around.

[dananini]

If one subscribed to the buy- low-sell-fair theory, one would have not ever purchased these u stocks to begin with.This has been about irrational greed for most of us from day one.The theory is meant for "real" stocks.GE's P/E is now just about 15, right at what is historically considered a fair price. If you've bought and held GE over the last ten years, you got your comeuppence in one single morning.Imagine how many funds and 401's hold GE.Nice dividend but.........I will sell one of my all-time favorites monday-Shaw Group.P/E of 64!!!....drcoop.com was never that lofty.

[john77]

I agree that I should never have purchased these U stocks at lofty prices, or at least kept trailing stops on them. As for P/E's though, that can be impossible to tell for the majority of these stocks in the exploration or soon to be producing companies.

[dananini]

John, the author was by no means referring to the ditems of the world.Or any pink sheet.
Before the P/E even comes into play, it first has to be determined that you're looking at a good company with good management, etc. and good prospects.Cos. just down in the dumps at the moment becuse of the always -wrong herd's whimsical selling.You can't just go out and buy shares of any ole company with a low P/E.Sometimes the low number is indeed justified.Takes a shit-load of homework, but it makes good sense to me.I've been burned in any manic bull-market there ever was.Nothing like this current mess we're in,but you get the point...........Buy low-sell fair..Sorry JDH 

[john77]

Another sentiment indicator for the last week ...

www.twocents.blogs.com

[richmanch]

I read the Maudlin piece, thanks David.

I don't understand it 100%. He says buy and hold is a loser, but if you bought a generic index fund 5 years ago, you'd be up 50% today. Bull's Eye Investing is on the reading list, per your suggestion.

This is just a tough market, and we're all looking for answers. Even the shorts have had a tough time the last few weeks. Buying/holding last summer was a bad idea--it's over. Some took it worse than others. Of course it was greed--it still is, more or less. Anyone here for personal enrichment?

The fact that little fish like us (ok, like me, I'll speak for myself) got hurt is not really surprising. How Dines and Casey ushered everyone to the woodshed (by flashing "buys" in May and June) is more amazing--they are the ones with research teams (OK, Dines might just have a "typist"), they are the ones getting paid to make the calls. But that's fine. I wouldn't be complaining if they went up. They're speculative stocks. It's my money. I'm not twelve years old. Next.

Should be a fun week. The banks report "earnings." Good luck to everyone but the shorts.

[punter]

I thought I'd check on you.  I'm in Paris, it's raining but the food and drink is excellent and think I may stay far  far away from the market as per the advice from Adam Smith in 'The Wealth of Nations". I think the actual quote was " when I get the feeling that I should gamble in commodities I take myself far removed until the feeling goes away".

All the best to all of you

[dananini]

http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://20080415000020544849&magsection=news-financial-services&title=Paladin+execs+caught+in+Lift&source=/_xmlfeeds/financial_services/feed.xml

Now it's Paladin....

[jjj000]

hmm... interesting.  Thanks for the article dan... I never bought into Paladin and wasn't watching any news on it.  I always missed the boat prior.  Perhaps a chance to jump in here is presenting itself...

[whatsupdoc]

It is sure nice to see mostly  all green across the board this morning!!!
I am hoping this is the beginning of the spring rally we have all
been patiently waiting for. The U-stocks especially could use
a good lift-off.  I noticed the last time we had a good U-rally
after the aug_07 lows, all the markets DOW, SP500, Nasdaq, Metals
& commodities were rallying strongly all at the same time.  Hope the
present conditions prevail.

[davidslane]

I doubt the general market and uranium rallies last more than 2 weeks.

I would say by May 15, everything starts heading back down.

[davidslane]

I want to lighten up.

I want to sell my junior uranium stocks.

I'm nervous about holding too long into May.

The VIX has reached new year lows.
The 10 year treasury interest rate is at 2 month highs.
People are getting complacent and taking on risk again.

This can't last!


But, since I still want to sell, it's not time yet.
It's still too early.


When I start questioning myself and saying that I should forego selling and maybe buy back some of my uranium stocks, that is the sell moment.


So, for now, I'm holding tight.
Maybe right before the April 30 US Fed announcement will be the right time.


I give this rally 2 weeks!