Stock Market - April 14-18

[Croaker]

The Market gets a little good news and takes off. I don't think it will last. I bet there are people out there thinking just like us asking themselves "When do I sell?" Hopefully they sell after we sell.

[davidslane]

Feels like were seeing the start of a two week run that will be the spring rally.

Still skeptical about this market and how long oil can stay at $115/barrel.


I'm looking to unload lots of junior uranium stocks.
Just a matter of when.

I'm aiming for the Wed. morning of the April 30 US Fed meeting.

[jjj000]

I think the rally cry is premature, fellas.  Too many earnings reports coming up that could shake the apples off the trees.

Some junior U's are peaking now, though - like FSY, URZ - and should turn back down.  While others haven't even gotten started.

One real interesting note - Forsys' daily broke through it's 200DMA today for the first time in about 9 months.  Two or three more even or up days and the 50DMA will have crossed over the 200DMA.  Could be nothing... but could be something.

In any case... I've managed to trade into some profits and cut my losses by 10% in the last 30 days, so that's good news.

[davidslane]

I've been looking at charts of all my favorite uranium stocks trying to figure out when to sell this April/May.


I looked at the April and May periods of a dozen stocks going back 2005.  They all seem to have rally in April and/or May (with a few exceptions).  And they all seem to have one day during that period where they have big up rallies of 5% to 10%.


(Sometimes the rally lasts two days if the stock was coming off a big drop day or days.  It is not an exact science, but looking for this rally day or two days seems to be a good rule.)


The rally day is not always the same day each year for each stock.
The big up days seem to roll across the uranium stocks across the sector.  Like one May day Denison will be up 6% and the next UEX will be up 8% and the next FSY will by up 10%. 

There will be groupings, but the big rally day may not hit every stock at the same time.


But, typically, they all go up around the same week.

The bigger ones: Mega, Pinetree, Cameco, Denison may rally 5%, while the Forsys, UEX and such will rally 8% to 10%.


And that's it.
Sell then or wait until next year.
Sometimes the stocks stay up for a few more days (if they peaked early).
Sometimes they drop immediately.


That one big day seems to be as safely close to the top as you're going to get for each stock for the April/May rally.  And for the small stocks, getting out into a liquid, high volume up day is the best way to exit.  You won't get the exact stock using this same rule for all uranium stocks, but it will work as a good averaging process for selling.


Now, will this rally day happen early or late this year.
It could be early if people sell into the first big rallies to dump their shares.
It could be late if the general market rallies big into May.

My guess is still the week around Wed. April 30, the next US Fed meeting.


And we may have already missed the sell day.
There were big up days around April 2, 3, and 4.

But I think those up days were too early in this cycle (relative strengths were all very low on uranium stocks) and the uranium stocks have stayed strong since that date.


So, now I know what I am looking for my April/May selling.

If anyone of my small stocks rallies 8% to 10% over the next four weeks (I will sell into that rally) ---- and I'll be looking for a few of those stocks rallying on the same day for confirmation --- but not necessarily all of them on the same day.


Curious to here others thoughts on this strategy.

[jjj000]

I think you need to come up with your own strategy and stick with it.  Then you can only blame yourself

Personally, I just look at each stock as an individual right now, and try to play the TA and the clear rally trends, if there are any.  It's obvious that people are manipulating the price of these juniors, some more than others.  And the ones that are more popular, to me at least, are easier to read.

Right now, if I pick up a security at a discount for a swing-trade, like say FSY or MAW or DNN, I'll read the chart and pick an exit point, then put in a trailing stop right around there, and then accept whatever happens.  I look for opportunities where I think I can make a quick 20-30% in about a month's time... that seems to be the mini-rally pace these days.

For my part, I don't want to get tied up trying to predict a certain week or a certain % jump on a certain day as a signal, as I think that is splitting hairs and getting bogged down a bit too much in predictive analysis.  B/C really we are just talking about momentum here solely based on trader behavior and chart reading - in a total vacuum of positive or negative news.

The concept of the "sell in May" for me only applies if the entire sector trends up in one mass.  At some point that momentum will reach a stall-out point, where you better either be out already, or have your finger on the sell button.  And this year I think it will likely have more effect on Gold and the other precious metals rather than the U's... unless we do see a sector wide push in the next 3-4 weeks.

But then again... wtfdik   history ain't the future...

[dananini]

David, things are depressing enough. You seem very bright but you still speak so affirmatively.Take a look at your 2008 predictions,etc.and you've gotta admit you're no john paulson.It baffles me that anyone can be naming dates about where this casino is heading.Hour to hour...Best always

[john77]

Hey TheSlowLane,

Are you the moderator over at the siliconboard U forums? If so, how is sentiment over there?

[davidslane]

Yep, my predictions have been awful the past year or so.

But, the one thing that has been consistant has been the May swoon in uraniums.

Yep, this year may be different.

The gold and silver mining stocks tend to swoon around April and May too.


I'll be curious to see what happens this year.

[Bottomfeeder]

Im with you JJJ...

It is and has been the time to buy the dips and sell the rips!

Way Way too difficult to try and time this market, based on seasonality trends.  I can't tell you how many times I've heard or read how this should be a good month and the next should be a bad one and so on.

The only thing that has been certain over the past year is that when one goes and buys one of the these, no make it any of these uraniums, and gets into a long term hold position, they have lost.  Myself included.

The mass psychology aspect of this segment, especially, continues to be very powerful, and a necessary consideration in the decision.   As does how much cash the company has, and what you have left in your pockets.  I mean, if you had a VIX just on the uraniums, the current VIX highs would be our bottoms!

But if you look at some of these stocks,  like the much maligned Ditem for example, you will notice that that stock is up 40% since March 31.  I have gone to making trades within positions with sell levels all the way up, and buy levels all the way down.  Impossible to day trade, just set up your buys and sells, and go with it.

Anyway just my two cents.  Buy low sell higher in bear markets, until it is clear that we are in a bull market.

But I think you gotta keep the cash turning, and dont be greedy!

[richmanch]

I like the strategy, but agree with jj that you just have to do your own thing, not that anyone doesn't know that, but it gives some piece of mind.

I'm not far removed from the portfolio that I plan on keeping, and adding to, this summer. I did some house cleaning right after the first, when I thought we'd get a major bump after tax loss season, and have been pretty conservative since. I'm pretty sure that companies like DNN and URE and PDN and JNN are going to be trading higher in 6 - 12 -18 months. In 10 days? Who knows. 30 days? I'd say pretty good bet we're higher, operative word is bet.

I don't have the plan in place yet, but I'm basically keeping stocks like DNN and placing gtc stinks bids with large gaps. all the way down to a buck. That way I can be happy either way.

[Croaker]

It seems investors feel the bottom has been hit. With Citi Bank losing 5 Billion and the Market over 200 plus at noon. Maybe a rally, maybe a short one is about to start. Fingers crossed.

[davidslane]

Or end.

[john77]

If the DJIA can hold above 14745 at the close then traditional Dow theory signals a buy (the DJTA hit a high a bit back). Course there will be a pull back reaction even if that happens though.

[dananini]

No rallly with my frickin' dines recs.Down a little actually on a day like this.This is my personal financial abyss right now.Not the money aspect so much as the anger and frustration over my stupidity.Particularly today.

The five or six "real" stocks that I've been watching for a while now have all been moving up nicely.I'm just too damn shell-shocked to pull the trigger.Gonna have to get over this.Good luck to all.

[jjj000]

I'm ok with the market focusing elsewhere for a bit, as long as it's positive.  Just keep your fingers crossed for those announcements by Cameco or China SWF as to investing/buyouts in the U sector, and the positivity should swing our way...