Stock Market - April 14-18

[john77]

Dananini,

I think general confidence has to go back into the markets before the following happens:

1) the public sees LESS of a US slowdown, and thus more demand for commodities (of course major demand comes from China and India, but fears of the US slowdown take down prices all around)

2) the general indices have to get a little richer before our crappy Dines picks get any love. U's as a whole are far too weak to rally without a general index gain, and yes they seem too weak to rally with them also, but typically there are small gains or stabilizations after days like today (same thing happened one or two tuesdays ago I believe)

[dananini]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu........cking putrid. I'm gone on monday..i've tried to stay positive, but after hearing at 4:30 from my a-hole friends about how much money they made today, i simply can't do it anymore.There's no capitulation here, it's getting silly.Like the tulip thing centuries ago.I'm gonna buy some water, CWW,(punter's etf rec. two months ago), IBM (slowly), gamblng stocks that have been hammerd lately(mgm and vegas sands), BAC, and, of course , the requsite 50 shares of google.Watching for the solar mania to back-up a bit and then am buying TAN (solar etf). Dines had the wrong industry for my lifetime.We all know it's not the answer (solar) ,but if you can't beat em you gotta join 'em for a while.

[dananini]

p.s. DNN dropped another 20 cents today.You all probably know that already.

[richmanch]

Dananini,

why all or nothing?

[dananini]

richmanch, read the preceeding post.enough is enough. I'm not even pondering the prospect of everything shooting to the moon the minute after i sell.that's a first in my lifetime. I aso forgot to mention the "bad" dedt opportunities that should be rolling around by the fall or next year.i'll wait.It beats the hell out of waking up every morning to see how titan uranium made out the day before...Best to all.

[punter]

Dananini, thanks for the vote of confidence on CWW, but, I'm underwater slightly on that one as my average cost is 19. I did say though that I see a future there and will slowly build a position. Uranium has the same position in my portfolio, although some days I wished I owned none of it. The fundamentals for the industry remain strong and the downturn was neither industry nor company specific. The hedgies and banks who also agreed that nuclear is the future and were building positions until the sub-prime fiasco hit and forced liquidation swept away the entire junior resource food chain and many stocks in other sectors. And then the rest of us piled on with our own fears and margin calls. Spot supply is the same as it was except the hedgies ( again) are liquidating supply and of course ( who can blame them) the utilities are low-balling the suppliers. Greed works both ways. I do not believe that this situation will persist, and also don't know when it will turn. But it has been my observation over time that these extremly oversold conditions usually rectify themselves with explosive moves to the upside, which is why I maintain a skeleton position across the board.

Now, you're saying " why am I prepared to lose money?" The answer is because I am a planner more than a daytrader and believe that my strategy of diversification will (as it has) provide balance while maintaining positions for accelerated growth from exposure to the higher beta stocks. While watching my u stocks and financials get whacked I have not panicked but I have repositioned into distribution and dividend issues and slowed down aquisitions.

Issues that I bought last June when this all came about include FDG.UN, COS.UN, SU, CBY, ABX, PAA, TIM, TCM, AGU are among the positions I took to anchor the unfolding mess. Most of these are up 50% or more ( in some cases less, like ABX, but still black). So for me , a guy who cannot read the future, this balancing act is the best response I can muster while my convictions about water , energy (nuclear) et al, pm's, ag and resources play out over time. The above listed issues in isolation would have been the only things to own if you had a crystal ball. But, I think I've already told the story about my wife who once asked " Why not only buy the stocks that go up?" Hey, if it were only that simple .

I'm back on hallowed ground but am going to San Fran on Monday and don't have a lot of time to respond. I just thought I'd put my 2.5 cents in.

GLTA.

[dananini]

Punter, welcome back.You're not out too much on cww anymore,getting close to even.I believe you brought it up on this board at low/mid 17's.Up 6.25% since.Please tell me what you think of the upcoming bad debt opportunities.In my opinion, THAT might be the mother of all bull markets.APOL ,FIG..??..Regards

[john77]

Hi Dananini,

Trust me, I feel your pain. But don't forget you were also very excited about John Mauldin's guest post which talked about buying low and selling at fair value - ie. value investing or trading in a range-bound market. Once you sell your U's will you be using this method or chasing other financials etc that were up on Friday...

[dananini]

John, no, no, no. The stocks I mentioned are mostly in the shithouse now..BAC is trading at a p/e of under 11, mgm and sands have been killed by the recession talk, google is google, and so is IBM. I can't be TOO rigid with the p/e MO. With my sights set on the bad debt stuff, I feel I'm taking Mauldlin's theory and expanding on it..Regards

[dananini]

Punter, not APOL..I meant OZM.

[TheSlowLane]

john77 - sorry for the delayed response, I was in DC for the GATA Conference over the past few days.  Yes, I am the moderator of the Uranium Stocks board at Silicon Investor.  For the long-term participants (that may be too strong of a word), sentiment is about as bad as it gets, I think.  The volume of posts has slowed to a very slow drip.  That said, a couple of the more astute traders I follow on that site have very recently shown an interest in the sector and are either looking actively or are taking positions.

The most interest I have seen in the sector appears to be coming from strategic investors.  I'm talking about large corporations that are seeking to secure long-term supply for their own purposes.  They are not speculating on stocks so much as partnering with juniors that are either near production or have decent land portfolios in prospective areas.  Here's a list:

Titan Uranium – JOGMEC
Fission Energy – KEPCO
Strathmore – Sumitomo
Titan Uranium – CVRD
Uranerz – Denison
Forum Uranium – Agnico Eagle

I think it is possible that there may be some near term catalysts that could renew some interest in the sector, but as always, the market will have the final word.  For example, I would like to see Denison get White Mesa into production and strike some toll milling arrangements.  I also have heard that Strathmore has made a bid for the Sweetwater mill, so if the mill gets sold to them or someone else, that could also be a catalyst.  For specific situations, a significant discovery can make a difference (like Hathor), but in this environment, there hasn't really been much carryover for other juniors (except Fission, which is immediately adjacent, or on top of, depending on who you ask, to Hathor's discovery).

If anyone has access to a time machine, I would like to go back to early 2007 and make some portfolio adjustments.

[TheSlowLane]

Regarding the U stocks...there was a good post on the SI board recently that I thought was notable:

"...a close friend who works for Exxon has been all over me about which U stocks to buy after he saw an internal presentation stating that nuclear IS the future. so i guess we can expect to see the oil cos making an appearance on the scene in the future."

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24509249

[john77]

Wow - thanks for the information. Great posts...