Stock Market Dec. 15-19

[Bottomfeeder]

Man I never start a new week, now off the schneid.

Well it wasn't a great trade entering FAZ at 50.40 late yesterday, thats for sure.

I am surprised that the markets are up today, so far, given GS missing consensus estimates by to me would seem to be significant what 25% lower, than a Moodys downgrade.  Stock up?

Now we wait the Feds decision.  Could that be the news to be sold?  I keep listening for what the street is looking for, and beyond the mention of non conventional rate activity, it is not easy to get my arms around.

FAZ has held what I would deem to be support at 45.30.  A break below that I'm out licking my wounds.

The nasdaq 100 financials are currently forming, what appears to be a minor top formation at 1894.  A break below 1890 would indicate to me that the financials will head lower.

Is the market waiting to sell the news here?  What do you guys think?

[davidslane]

The market will always do the opposite of what you expect in the short term.
The most pain to the most people.


All I know is certain, with options expiration Friday, I expect some intraday wild swings for a couple of days.



I'm focusing on buying for Intermediate trades (buy and hold 3 to 6 months).
And right now, I am buying mid size gold and silver producers only (with a few big and juniors thrown in).

I just don't see the upside in 3 to 6 months in energy, infrastructure and uranium that I do with gold and silver miners (especially some of the smaller producers).


And I'm focused on getting near the 200 DMA for the large indexes over the Intermediate.
That's a good bear market rally.


I don't think gold/silver are in a bear market, so they should be able to rally to the 200 DMA and break through.

I also see the dollar coming back down.

[jjj000]

I also see the dollar coming back down.

Dollar has been dropping like a rock against the EURO since the first week in December.  Surprisingly, gold didn't follow... there was about a week delay before gold started moving up.  Dollar is right at support/resistance right now though... if it breaks through it could vault back down to October levels before taking a breather...

I had lost track of EUR/USD... thanks for bringing it up again.

As far as what I think... I don't know, I've stopped trying

[davidslane]

Long timers know I was predicting 1% Fed Rates for over a year back when everyone was worried about $150 oil and inflation.

But I never expected Japanese style 0.25%.

Wow.

[punter]

I mentioned a punt two weeks ago on BWR-TSX, Breakwater Resources. Up 39% in that time. Another sleeper? Down a lot YTD but could be a sleeper at this point. Take out maybe. WTFDIK. Do your own DD

Merry Christmas to all you Christians. Tax loss season could be interesting this year. Some real bargains for the extreme longs I think. TCK.B-TSX another lottery ticket.
GLTA

[Croaker]

Dollar Falling and I see gold is higher than Platinum, Silver shot up and held. Lets see how far they run from here.  I read a news article on Reuters that a couple of Mining Companies bought smaller companies.  Hopefully this will start a snowball effect. 

[Bottomfeeder]

<<<Busy licking wounds

I was able to get out of half my position at 44, still unfortunately holding the rest looking to sell into a rally tomorrow.

FAZ dropped all the way down to "bottom" support level, at 36.74 at the close and has dropped to 35.24 (apparently) after hours.  Ouch!

Stupid of me even being in front of that train.  I got away from my strategy, which was to get in on moves in overbought or oversold positions, take the run and get out. 

Dananini....good job getting out when the trade didn't work.

I got too cute, prolonged the trade, and got pounded for it.  What a dumb ass!

Hopefully lesson learned.  Hope everyone else did well today.

GLTA

Signed,

pissed.

[pinetree]

Sorry to hear about that, bf. 

Believe me, I've been there before... all you can do is dust yourself off and learn from it.  My losses have made me exercise more control over my emotions (or at least attempt to) when it comes to whether or not to take a trade and to always have a risk management strategy.  I always make sure I know the worst case scenario before I get in and sell if my stop is breached, no questions asked.  It can be hard to do because you're always convinced you're right and that prices will surely turn around and go your way, but you sell in case they don't.  No need to let a loser get out of hand (like I've done), just get out and wait for the next bus.

As for the market I still think it could go either way from here.  Closing above the 50dma for the first time since early Sep is encouraging but we're still in that 8150-8950 range on the Dow, so no resolutions there.

Going back to mid-Nov we've basically been trading in a 8000-9000 range, with the exception of that potential bear trap.  Maybe on a close over 9000 I'd start thinking about going long.  The market has shaken off a lot of bad news of late and doesn't seem to want to sell off, so maybe there's some more upside ahead.  Then again, of course it's easy to be bullish after a +360 day.  Still, a pop up to the 9600 election high wouldn't be too much to ask for.

[Bottomfeeder]

This was an all day battle for me.....XLF down 1.2% SKF up .68%, FAZ DOWN 2.38%

I wonder if the difference has to do with the CDS's that are utilized as a means of achieving the 3x leverage.  I dont understand how the re-balancing occurs to achieve weighting, but how in the hell can it be that far off.

I will be watching to see if there is a pop there on re-weighting tomorrow morning.  Maybe has to do with fighting the fed.  The level II charts (3 D ones) had a pattern that was way too organized today.  Alot of large block walls being placed on the ask side.  .

[pinetree]

Gold... is the bottom in or is this just a bear market rally?

I've been leaning toward the former, but since we must consider all possibilities here is what Dennis Gartman had to say about gold today.

Regarding the precious metals, yesterday we noted that
gold has forged consistently lower highs and lower lows
since making its peak at $1020 in March, the morning of
the Bear Stearns bankruptcy. That process is still in the
making and we still respect the pattern that is evolving;
however, we tend always to construct what we refer to
here as "The Box:" That place on the chart that marks
the area between the 50-62% retracement of the
previous important move , for we are fascinated by how
often commodities, stocks, currencies et al move into
those areas. Gold was approaching that area yesterday,
and had it not been "Fed Day" we would have been a
very public seller of gold as it moved into that region on
the chart. Fortunately, knowing that discretion is the far
better part of valour, we chose to allow the Fed's
decision to pass before we were going to sell gold short.
Once the decision was rendered, gold rushed upward
through the top of "The Box" rather easily. If remains
above "The Box's" top this morning as we write.
In a "perfect" world, the Fed's action shall be enormously
inflationary and gold prices will drive enormously higher.
In a "perfect" world, the massive liquidity that the Fed is
going to create would be more than sufficient to drive the
economy higher and also to drive all commodity prices
higher as the dollar weakens and as this excess liquidity
makes itself felt via rising prices. But this is not a perfect
world. Indeed, it is far from perfect. Deflationary forces
remain intact. Labour remains abundant. Excess capacity
in the world economy remains obvious. Recession or
worse is the economic order of the day. In that
environment, we prefer having no position in gold, for the
bullish forces and the bearish forces, both fundamental
and technical, are equal and evident. We'll stand aside,
difficult though that is.

[Bottomfeeder]

Yeah....I caught that too PT.  Bottom line to me is you have to be WILLING to trade in this market, even if you are going in as an investor!  You make your money and you have to book your profits, if you dont you might just find yourself down just as much or more, as you were up.

It seems that things can always be bought later at better prices, and one cannot be afraid of "missing it" or too greedy to sell it.  Both emotions will chew you up and spit you out.

A lesson learned, again, by me this week.  Each emotion is equally destructive, and will yield very similar results.  Losses.  If the market gives you something, in these times, they should be taken.

[pinetree]

Here's the latest on those US banks participating in the futures markets.  In Nov they increased their longs and decreased their shorts, but in Dec they did the opposite in a pretty significant way, increasing their short gold contracts to 66,645 which is the second highest they've been this year.  Only Aug was higher, with 86,398.

Gold short contracts in Oct-Nov-Dec have gone 54k-44k-66k.  Long contracts have gone 3k-5k-2k in that time.
Silver has been steady with 23k-22k-24k, there are 102 long contracts for Dec, as opposed to 0 in Oct and Nov.

[Bottomfeeder]

PT....you interpreting that the banks interest may not be manipulation but rather fears of deflation?

I guess why doesn't really matter anyway does it, as why doesn't change the outcome.

Been a pretty good run with alot of the miners as well as the Comex, could be time for some profit taking.

[maxine]

Anyone familiar with Matthias Chang or the Shadow money lenders?  Does he have any credulity and who are they? There is a ring of truth in this article which strikes a funny bone when you read it.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11423

[jjj000]

[quote author=Bottomfeeder link=topic=970.msg8283#msg8283
A lesson learned, again, by me this week.  Each emotion is equally destructive, and will yield very similar results.  Losses.  If the market gives you something, in these times, they should be taken.
[/quote]


Tell me about it, bf... I don't own a single stock or option in the black right now.  Or green, whatever your color of choice.  ALL RED.  Nice work on my part.