Stock Market July 2010

[Depleted]

Fertilizer stocks looking like they may have hit near term bottoms, or ready for their bottom retest. technically a buy on the next dip, if test fails.
See Potash Corp (POT.TO_), Agrium (AGU.TO) and Mosaic (MOS (NYSE)). all these are at or near what seems like, a cyclical low, or near term low. They are soaring now, but, would like to see failed retest to confirm the next upleg. Anyone looking at fertilizers?
Sunseeker, put that glass down with the fancy paper umbrella in it, and look at some charts.         
Which sector is going to be first out of the gate, coming up? ,besides Gold and silver...
I have found some other interesting charts, that are also showing some nice bottom formations. hmmm
cheers...D

[sidewinder]

POT earnings call at noon central std time on 7-29 and MOS is after market close on 7-22.

POT just paid a .10 dividend the other day(7-14) and produced a buy signal on 7-7.

The MOS buy signal appeared on 7-1 and was a real good signal on the MMG (measured market guage)  with the short and long term both below 20.  Two days later and explosion on the price.  It blew through the 20 and the upper BB or MOBO and got stopped at the 50, the first "real" activity since March.  Something will happen on both soon IMHO.

MOS is down almost 45% from the peak this year and POT down around 35% this year. 

I keep thinking with Monsanto and others plunging ahead with GMO product there may not be a need for ferts as much in the future.  Bastards are producing gelding seed with built in pesticide genetically altering forever what we will eat.  No doubt they are working on building in the fertilizer as well.  If people don't start saving and protecting heirloom seed we will have no choice but to buy the origin of all food from these crazy bastards. 

[pinetree]

Here is a 2day chart going back to the March 2009 low.  I see the recent low was right on a 2009 support level.

POT appears to be in a channel between 80 and 120, so Depleted could be right about a cyclical low here.

I included a snapback study I've come to like.  I put yellow dots (lemons or grapefruit ) to flag when the white stoch gets stretched out too far away from the long-term blue stoch.  This is usually a good warning of price snapping back to the longer term trend.  During the decline since March each instance of yellow dots produced a new down move.  So far this hasn't materialized but the white stoch doesn't usually stay up in the overbought region for long, and with 4 grapefruit in a row now I think probability is we have a retracement coming.  Decent chance of a failed new low given the support below but we will have to see.

Of course, those are only stochastics and before anyone says anything I know they have no sway over the markets movements.  I just use them to try and play probabilities.
The blue stoch tends to stay above 50 during bull moves, and below it in bear moves.  It is trying to move it's way up now but is only at 27, a long way away from 50.  With the white stoch up in overbought, probability is we see some downside.

[sunseeker]

Fertilizer stocks looking like they may have hit near term bottoms, or ready for their bottom retest. technically a buy on the next dip, if test fails.
See Potash Corp (POT.TO_), Agrium (AGU.TO) and Mosaic (MOS (NYSE)). all these are at or near what seems like, a cyclical low, or near term low. They are soaring now, but, would like to see failed retest to confirm the next upleg. Anyone looking at fertilizers?
Sunseeker, put that glass down with the fancy paper umbrella in it, and look at some charts.         
Which sector is going to be first out of the gate, coming up? ,besides Gold and silver...
I have found some other interesting charts, that are also showing some nice bottom formations. hmmm
cheers...D

Hi D


I nearly choked on my Jack Daniels when I read that. What do you take me for? LOL

On the other matter.
Warren Buffett: “I realized technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the charts upside down and didn’t get a different answer.”

Peter Lynch: “Charts are great for predicting the past.”

Looks like I’m in good company.

However I do look to seasonality for some pointers.

From an old research note I had saved (2008).

Potash Corp.    End of June to end of December   
Potential profit 42.0% on 8 out of 10 trades.

Agrium.             End of June to end of December
Potential profit 25.3% on 8 out of 10 trades.

Thanks for highlighting a seasonal opportunity (and one I had missed).

I like agriculture. No matter what happens we’ve got to eat.

I have mentioned this one before (one currently I own):

http://www.carrs-milling.com/

Unfortunately it has a large spread 4%, but it also has a dividend yield of 4.69% but more importantly it’s covered 4.3 times so the dividend aspect is very safe. If you look into the company’s activities they also offer some diversity. Including of all things making robotic arms for the nuclear industry.

Look also at Sugar producers with their own plantations.
I still own CZZ, and ALEX. Food and Biofuel.

I liked Sidewinders prospective on Monsanto too:

“I keep thinking with Monsanto and others plunging ahead with GMO product there may not be a need for ferts as much in the future.  Bastards are producing gelding seed with built in pesticide genetically altering forever what we will eat.  No doubt they are working on building in the fertilizer as well.  If people don't start saving and protecting heirloom seed we will have no choice but to buy the origin of all food from these crazy bastards.”

Think BP. Even with all the knowledge that they had at their disposal they took the risk and hit trouble. That would be a mere flea bite if GM technology were to hit a snag. With evolution the changes are gradual, and any genetic mistakes are rectified naturally. With GM we’re taking about giant leaps in the evolutionary process. Actually we're going one step further by introducing genes from totally unrelated species (which could never happen naturally in a million years).
Many of these developments may prove entirely beneficial, but even a very low instance of failure would have catastrophic consequences (not easily rectified). 

People are going to think this a very mercenary attitude towards the issue, but I think it’s an entirely sensible one. Experiment with GM in countries who are unable to produce enough food for their population to survive (providing that cross pollination issues in neighbouring areas are taken into consideration). I realise that we would in effect be using humans as guinea pigs, but in the long term everyone would all benefit from any lessons that could be learned. Given the choice of starving to death, or eat with the risk developing health problems later in life I’m sure most people would choose to eat now.

At this point in time most countries in the developed world could and would survive without GM. Are cost savings really worth the risk?

ATB 

[pinetree]

Sunseeker, here's a chart you may like.  

[sunseeker]

Hi Pinetree

Good one.
You’ve seen my portfolio then…………

               

On a serious note:

Don't let me or anyone else put you off. If you understand it and it makes you money then stick with it until you find something better or it doesn’t work anymore. I find as the markets change you need to look at things in different ways. I have yet to find a one size fits all method for all sectors and all situations.

Play to your strengths and know your weaknesses and you’re well on the way.

Volumes are one area which intrest me. I stumbled across this site only the other day whilst searching for something else. I thought it looked interesting. 
 
http://finviz.com/

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&ft=4


ATB   

[sidewinder]

I started a reply on the GMO stuff and it ended up too long so I placed my thoughts on my blog rather than getting so far off topic here. 

http://sidewindersview.blogspot.com/

Not really a shameless plug but since I haven't been posting there much lately I though I would stick it there. I may expand the subject later and maybe not. 

[Depleted]

Hi Sunseeker...
You said...

Thanks for highlighting a seasonal opportunity (and one I had missed).

seasonality is only of general terms, because all phases of the market are skewed months less some years, then some times later in other years. Of Note...This "opportunity", it was found through Technical Analysis, nothing else, not fundamentals, because insiders buy into a stock before the mass does, because fundamentals are a result of a company's performance, which generally occurs after the fact...key word after.
Now it looks like many of my stronger stocks are showing early signs of trending up. Is this the bottom we have been waiting for?
It is really starting to look like it, but then again, my charts always look wrong, this early in the game.
LUN.TO, TKK/B.TO, looking good......Uraniums...MGA.TO. LAM.TO.....MFC.TO Manulife, reallly looking like a good bottom developing here, so maybe we go up from here....My scans have looked very good from monday on, and we are heading for 5 good days. many stocks showing definite trend reversals underway this week. If next week holds, confirmation will be in.....regards... D

[pinetree]

I had been thinking that SPX in the 900's was good risk-reward for some long entries and had planned to begin accumulating some positions in my longer term account at those levels.  I'm now beginning to have flashbacks of last July... maybe we won't get that low after all?

[Depleted]

Looking           good again today....sector Leaders BHP, FCX, RTP, Teck (TCK.B.TO) all showing excellent strength here. Long Term Investors may consider looking long and hard at the better/bigger fish out there, they are moving higher...do your DD now. The train is leaving the station, on the charts they are, but if you are a fundamentalist, maybe wait a few months until the earnings reports for Q3 start to come in for a more emotional confirmation....Looking wrong never felt so good!....Good Luck and Good trading...

P.S. Anyone try using QUESTRADE?   $4.95 Trades, anything that sounds this good must have flaws?

www.questrade.com

Cheers....D

[pinetree]

One of the clues I look to is copper.  It can be a good leading indicator for the market.

In March 2009 when the markets made new lows, copper put in a higher low.

In July 2009 it was only a small correction, but on the market low I see copper put in a slightly higher low.

And look what has happened on the recent market low....

Here is a chart... copper futures on the left, S&P futures on the right.



The idea here is that copper should move in tandem with the market.  When the market makes a new low, copper should as well.  Of late, when the market makes a new low and copper holds above it's prior low that has been a clue for a market bottom.

This is no guarantee that a bottom is in but perhaps the train is ready to leave the station?  It's not what I was expecting but that's what it is looking like.

Depleted, I should have listened to you and bought Laramide a couple of weeks ago.  Almost did... and it's since gone up 33% in two weeks.   

[Depleted]

Nice charts Pinetree...try a time chart size of 2.0-2.5 years, and put a 150EMA on it, and step back from your monitor a few feet. A clearer picture may be had. Lucky call on Laramide, it was a technical pull off the bottom. Mega Uranium is in there too, Dines and Inwentash. Also remember, these are good stocks badly beaten down. If I was in govenment in AUS, I would fill my boots with these, and wait for the next house meeting, when they might reverse the mining tax. To say these would go to the moon is an understatement....try the chart tweeks on CCO.TO. and look at the price action as it nears the 150EMA. It is like immaginary support. Significant, yes, to a longer term investor. When these push hard up, wait for the fall, as the RSI should hold around the 50 level, and then only trade in its upper band during the uptrend, once established. 
Mega has had had a good week, and it is on its way....higher highs, and higher lows. We may not see 0.37 for quite some time, glad I got some, hope you did also. Great stock, great price, on we go....

[pinetree]

The reason why I didn't buy Laramide was that I already owned Mega and figured one Aussie miner was enough.  But... just before the move I added to my MGAFF position at $0.359 (US pink sheet version) which now gives me a cost avg of 80 cents.  That still leaves me down almost 50% but it's a long-term position so I'm not worried.  I figure when all's said and done I'm either going to look brilliant or like an idiot.