Technical Analysis Page

[sidewinder]

I Feel bad getting into "Thread drift" over on the other page.  Many here are not interested in technical studies and understaning that and to prevent boring them we can discuss the subject here.  So in the spirit of fairness Let's put most of the T/A stuff here and spare those not interested the grief..

Sidewinder

[sidewinder]

Since you were talking about it here is a current BZG chart.  Looking at the bottom two windows where I have higlighted Could one determine where to short this?  The opposite is true going the other way but it's apparent the thing is in a down trend why fight city hall.  When the trend changes simply go the other way.  The FAZ chart is an identical twin to this BTW.  Notice once it goes through those Bollinger Bands there sits the 50 SMA.  It cant deal with it on the first attempt to penetrate the 50. There is a high probability that it will make another attempt at the 50.  Should it fail it is likely to come down and test the previous low.  Any stock running below the 20 and the 50 is in a down trend ... end of story. 

[sidewinder]

You can notice the sharp breaks on the yellow line on the study named Soap.  What happens to the price just after the sharp break?  Then notice the Blue line on the CCI study.  That is the CCI 50 the longer term study of the three.  The yellow line is 20 period and the white is the shorter 5 period CCI.  The low numbers are the fast ones and the high numbers are the slow ones.

 The Soap is simply two Stochs showing only the SK part its an 8 and a 5 SK only.

In the CCI window when the blue 50 line is below -100 the price is in a strong down trend (for this study) above the 100 it is trending up.  Notice the rectangle shaded area.  What was price doing during this time?  Also notice the sharp breaks on the short term lines on both studies and line up Wednesday AM you can see how the stoch broke first and confirmed by the CCI very shortly afterward.

[sidewinder]

Pinetree saw you got on TOS today hope you computer is ok.

you can go to this site and pick up most all the information on the FW club stuff here for you TOS program. The site is new so these guys will be adding stuff as we go along.

http://groups.google.com/group/firstwavers

[Peter518]

Sidewinder, Good job!  Appreciate your effort and contributions to this forum.

[sidewinder]

Thanks Peter No Problem here with sharing.

Back in '06 I was busy working and my idea of investing was send money to some newsletter guru and all's well.  Then all of a sudden it became apparent that all was not really so well so I started investigating just what it was I was putting all this money into.  There was little information about uranium and "pink sheet" exploration companies outside of the occasional news from my "guru".  I stumbled upon this site during that time.  JDH has put together a very nice site and I started at least finding out how to "see" these companies through charts.  Problem all the free stuff just did not give me the timely information I wanted.  I then started trying out various charting services and after another 6-7 months I found a place to learn the charting skills and just happened to get real lucky and land in a place whare there are many very experienced and skillful traders who were willing to share their knowledge. 

Sometimes things get real busy but I try to find the time to visit the web site because many here share those same qualities.  We are all at different levels of development and through sharing we all benefit.  I am not trying to convince anyone to follow any recomendation to follow any path but simply willing to put out what I have learned for anyone to have a look and decide for themselves if any of this will benefit them personally.

I have benefited from information found here and just hope some of the things I share can benefit someone else. 

[sidewinder]

In an effort to make trading more simple some of the guys have put together some code to give simple visual signals.  This one is called “Dashboard’  It’s just a series of lights the change color when the indicators we want to observe get in certain conditions. 

The “key” to the lights are listed below.  Green is above the value and red below the value and blank the price is inside the particular channel.  The MOBO bands referred to is a name given to the Bollinger Band settings  it stands for Momentum BreakOut.  The reference to Zoom Zone refers to the CCI if above 100 it is considered in a Zoom up mode and if below -100 in a Zoom Down mode.  Hope you like it I do.  It is still a work in progress and even I have been playing around with my personal ideas for simplifying the trading process.

 Would like to get the whole thing automated including automatic trading so I can just turn the computer on, sick it on the market I want to trade and go to the golf course.  Of course it would have to notify my BlackBerry on every move.  LOL .  Started testing it today and it seemed to make some pretty decent trading decisions.

 There are two sets of buy and sell “triggers”  you notice the blue dots and the white squares above and below the candles.  Below is buy and above is sell.  The white one seems to be getting into the trade a little sooner than the blue one.  They are two different “entry” concepts and only time and testing will tell which will provide the maximum profit potential.  Anyway tell me what you think.
 
Index of  Dashboard indicator

#row 1 = close above or below 50 SMA
#row 2 = close above or below 20 SMA
#row 3 = close above upper or below lower MOBO bands
#row 4 = 50 CCI above or below Zoom Zone
#row 5 = 20 CCI above or below Zoom Zone
#row 4 = 5 CCI above or below Zoom Zone

[pinetree]

I noticed the dashboard in tonite's chat, pretty neat. 

About the bollinger band settings for MOBO, is that the 10, 0.8 setting?

So just for fun... the dashboard for the daily DIA chart should be...
1. green
2. green
3. green
4. n/a
5. green
6. n/a

Geez, just set the computer and go play golf?  That seems too good to be true!

[sidewinder]

Yes the MOBO is BB settings 10  with .8 standard deviation

[jjj000]

Index of  Dashboard indicator

#row 1 = close above or below 50 SMA
#row 2 = close above or below 20 SMA
#row 3 = close above upper or below lower MOBO bands
#row 4 = 50 CCI above or below Zoom Zone
#row 5 = 20 CCI above or below Zoom Zone
#row 4 = 5 CCI above or below Zoom Zone

Great looking stuff, sidewinder, I applaud your and your team's efforts.

How are you using the dashboard signals?  I don't see a clear "buy" or "sell" condition there.  All RED only hit once and it was a clear buy, but all green hit numerous times and was not at all a sell or go short signal...??

The white/blue triggers seem pretty damn good though.  What are they keyed off of?  So what if white is a bit early... it doesn't appear to have been off by more than one session, and the next day seems to have always been pretty close in range.  Go 1/2 on white, the other 1/2 on blue??

[sidewinder]

jjjooo, two more rows of lights were added last night for the CCI and I have been testing it out all night on the futures.  right now I would have to say it just pretty much confirms a trend.  You can see a reversal coming and what I have done is when the trend starts use the buy or sell triggers for entry and that has worked out pretty good on the DOW futures tonight.  Still back it up with the other "analog" stuff though.  You know entry, while nice to enter and get ahead immediately,  is IMHO only about 10% of the trade.  So this is fun but certainly not the holy grail.   

[sidewinder]

Yea the triggers are interesting but, you see them on the screen shot they dont come on until several bars have passed.  they us a price avg for three bars and based on the change in price action are then plotted.  when watching real time they suddenly appear two bars after the fact.  so you can see they may appear to get you in early actually you wont see them until the second bar after the fact has closed.  if that makes any sense.   

[jjj000]

ah, ya that makes sense.  I was going to say if those are real-time per bar that would be a pretty darn good signal... still not bad with the white being early... if it shows up 3 bars later then it makes it a little less early then doesn't it??

[pinetree]

So many new indicators to play with.  This is going to be fun.

Although after taking some of these toys out for a spin I've realized just how basic and bare-bones the TA I've been using was.  Not that I saw myself as a sophisticated trader or anything but these have really opened my eyes.

I'll reserve judgement on these new tools until I've had time to get more experience with them.  But for now I'm pretty impressed and also very excited to be able to add them to my arsenal.  Thanks again SW.

[pinetree]

Looking at the bottom two windows where I have higlighted Could one determine where to short this?  The opposite is true going the other way but it's apparent the thing is in a down trend why fight city hall.  When the trend changes simply go the other way.  Notice once it goes through those Bollinger Bands there sits the 50 SMA.  It cant deal with it on the first attempt to penetrate the 50. There is a high probability that it will make another attempt at the 50.  Should it fail it is likely to come down and test the previous low.  Any stock running below the 20 and the 50 is in a down trend ... end of story.

So what's your take on this now?  On the hourly chart BGZ has made a new high today, higher than the Fri and Mon highs.  It has also broken above the Mobo.  Also, +DMI has crossed over -DMI.  All this on the hourly chart.

So what would you be looking for in order to consider going long BGZ, rather than short?  It is in a downtrend, but it looks to be possibly changing direction.