Technical Analysis Page

[sidewinder]

Yea, you mentioned a couple of brothers who came into davids room at TC net a few years ago having a blog.  I used to speak with the older one often.  Both quite sharp boys with hedge fund connections in Greenwich.  Sumbitches would nap in shifts and run on every market in the world.  Really smart.  I see they are pumping all sorts of stuff.  Not sure if  I would hand em my money though.  Their problem was they thought they knew more that they might actually and advocated with huge conviction.  Saw em loose their ass more than once.  Still good boy but you have to wonder what's out there.  The old say is "if it seems too good to be true it likely is.

Everyone has runs and a good careful Technician might be killer for a couple years but sooner ore later ... POW ... it happens.  This whole thing sorta reminds me of France in the 1700's before the shit storm.  Everybody is an expert trader.     

Maybe they are I don't know that's for sure.    ES looks to be either setting up for another plunge or punch out.   Right now up against the 150 on the daily with the 50% fib at 1126ish.  I'm taking a crack at a short right now at 1117 and tight stop of 3.5 points if it blow me out it just blows me out.  Had one trade last week.... enough to make a good week this will be my first for this week and if it will just play ball that will be it for the week for me. 

I just can't get that excited about it anymore. 

[sidewinder]

Oh PT did you get the grid set up ok for ES? .. should have a snowline at 115.82

[pinetree]

Regarding the  POW it happens.... isn't that what risk management is for?  Everyone has good and bad runs and if you're not prepared for drawdown it could kill you.  Maybe I'm just naive to believe that, who knows...  Just seems as long as your not foolish enough to think you're bulletproof, as long as you adhere to risk mgmt then the bullets that will eventually come your way won't kill you...

For me this is like card counting or any other odds-based activity.  Not about how much you make, but how much you don't lose.  Don't really see how I could advocate anything with huge conviction because I can't predict the future, though that kind of attitude will likely get you lots of followers on twitter LOL... 

Wonder if the FW guys will think twice about giving the FibGrid away for $50 when they see how much that other thing is going for...

Here is the link to the FW room page: http://www.ultimateemini.com/
Yes, it's $1000 per month.

[pinetree]

An example being on the US dollar index futures.  Going short 50 contracts last Thursday, has to date netted over 83K in profit.  You can't do that buying 50 thousand $$ worth of CCO last week.   But like a 16th century Frenchman sooner or later I will get burned playing in front of a runaway train.  Maybe

Everyone has runs and a good careful Technician might be killer for a couple years but sooner or later ... POW ... it happens.  This whole thing sorta reminds me of France in the 1700's before the shit storm.  Everybody is an expert trader.

Why think that way, SW?  Not saying you should become overconfident or reckless but if you're having success why spend time worrying that it's all going to end?  It might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

By the way, all this newsletter talk has me thinking.  Not to insult anyone who does it as there are some very good services out there...  But if I start a $100 per month "service" and get 100 suckers to join for a year then I'll be making $120,000 a year for doing the same stuff I do now.

[sidewinder]

Oh not worrying PT, not at all.  I only put paper trades here for what should be obvious reasons.  One, you never know who's watching and the rest is not of governments business. 

My personal financial business is just that personal.   

I will say that paper may mirror actual but that would be coincidental. 

Having said that this mornings short worked out just fine.  See I could have shared that in a pay for view site and everyone who listened would have paid for a years subscription with the advice.  Recorded and touted world wide should bring in more new customers salivating for the profits in fiat currency.  LOL  Start your service and I will come on board  as bonus advisor for small fee. 

If you provided the same thing via a blog or full time site and placed a pay pal "donate" button you would likely get 1% of that for doing the same thing for free.  Funny how assigning a value to something changes everything.  I am doing a lot of reading along those lines right now simply trying to get some personal understanding about value and money.  Seems simple to say but extremely difficult to arrive at truth and fact as to exactly what each is and how they relate. 

I still find Martin Armstrong's work the most interesting and that last study actually began from the question can harmonics aid in price movement prediction.  It is far from perfect and I think the reason is time is not represented in the process.  Time is actually a result of a wave measurement just as the fibs are applied from a certain point.  The various selections you see on the grid parameters are based on wave one on the particular index which in some cases started in the 1930's so the numbers matter, and are not arbitrary.  The manual start-stop are for testing and allows the user to play "what if" and add any stock. 

Along with Armstrong's theories of world wide capital flows I have been looking at Mike Montagne's Mathematically Perfected Economy and play with his predictive spread sheets but depending on what actions the central banks take and when, during a currencies life cycle, the results can vary too much to produce a predictive model for the markets AT THIS TIME. 

All this is strictly out of curiosity and my attempt to once and for all really understand money and value.  It is the basis of society and overlooked by most as too complicated to understand and is not taught truthfully if at all.  Montagne has caused me to look closely at interest as usury and the history and its implications to mankind.  Since he is likely correct, (his work is based on the mathematical view as a science not the pseudoscience of economics) nothing will be done to stop the booms and bust of inflation and deflation and the reasons are obvious. 

Well, enough for now I have to go make a new tin foil hat the one I'm wearing warped while writing this.   

[pinetree]

Looks like I have survived another day playing in front of the runaway train LOL.  Took a chance this morning and lost but have got it back now... just closed out a long position at the 5/50.  At this point it's a 2% gain on the day and I guess that would mean many happy subscribers to the BHSH trading room.

You know, it's funny... a coworker recently told me I should be teaching trading classes.  I laughed at the idea but in reality I probably know enough about this to bullshit my way through it.  And as FW says, people pay good money for seminars by people who don't even trade the stuff they teach so in that light it wouldn't be that much of a longshot.  But for better or worse I wouldn't feel right about selling people a mediocre product so I probably wouldn't consider anything like that until I was making consistent profits in live trading.  

Hopefully you're wrong about this tinfoil hat stuff.  I'd hate to think I'm putting in all this work only to wind up with a pile of worthless Assignats in the end.

[sidewinder]

Hopefully you're wrong about this tinfoil hat stuff.  I'd hate to think I'm putting in all this work only to wind up with a pile of worthless Assignats in the end.

Well, in actuality, that is quite possible as the Federal Reserve notes you are working for only represent debt and the only thing keeping the game going is public confidence in a monetary system that will fail at some point.

Not to worry though the game can continue for some time depending on how those in control of the money system conduct the system.  Whatever happens, there will be some method of exchange although it may just change in name.  There will be losers and there will be winners and the odds are we may be surprised who they are. 

If you are waiting until you are able to KNOW what you are talking about and ALWAYS win at the market before teaching a method you have a long wait.  No one knows or has a perfect system except the few large firms who now front run the system and flash trade in a system they created, and now they control and work with impunity.  The SEC now need not respond to FOIA request and the Goldman show on the recent charges has done its job insuring Goldman et al will continue winning (if you can call it that).  The relatively small fine with GS paying $500 million and asserting no admission of guilt should be front page on every publication in the world but it passes as merely a non-event. 

All this in addition to the new financial reform bill insure the next crisis is just around the corner.  The 0 rate at the FED window may actually go negative and all that give me more reason to look closer at Montagne's idea of the mathematically perfected economy.  Frankly the deeper I dive into it the more sense it makes. 

As far as teaching trading you need not profess ANY guaranteed result , as you could teach the perfect method and individual students would always produce different results.  You could hand the HOLY GRAIL to 20 people and I promise 4 would screw it up 4 would "modify" it because they think they know better and of the two left 1 will not apply any of it and the other may be wildly successful.  However, if they all paid a high fee to attend the class 90% will never admit publicly they felt "duped" because it's just human nature and those who trade are just like gamblers ............ who only talk about "winners".  I know plenty who have attended classes they paid a fortune for and consistently lose money but will loudly proclaim the learned a lot in the classes.....   they just refuse to accept the fact they wasted so much money.  There will be plenty who will say they recovered the cost of the class with one or two trades and they are not lying.  But who's to say they would not have done it anyway.  It's a weird game and interesting phenomena, that's for sure.   

[Depleted]

Good Companies with early uptrends starting with good volume....SW.TO and UFS.TO. do your own fundamental DD....Should match the charts...
Good Luck and Good Trading.....D 

[Depleted]

Paladin Energy (PDN.TO) broke out today (upside Breakout), on excellent volume (1.3M)  solid buying should commence after we see it reconfirmed in a few weeks. Pull and look at the charts...
This is a good company with uranium production. Fundamentals will follow later, do your DD and check it out. don't wait for the next Quarterly report, you will miss all the action....
Good Luck and happy Trading... D 

[MetalMeister]

Ha, ha, ha, ha. did I not tell you way back when that the MPE was sound?

I went through that whole thing until I could see what he was talking about.

Usury is the culprit.  Always has been the culprit, and almost always will be...

Well, if you think about it IS already a negative rate at the FED window.  Ain't much out there keeping pace with true inflation.  It's no sooner out the door then it's worth less than it was a week ago.

www.shadowstats.com

Print, baby, print!!!

 

All this in addition to the new financial reform bill insure the next crisis is just around the corner.  The 0 rate at the FED window may actually go negative and all that give me more reason to look closer at Montagne's idea of the mathematically perfected economy.  Frankly the deeper I dive into it the more sense it makes. 

[sidewinder]

Ha, ha, ha, ha. did I not tell you way back when that the MPE was sound?

It may be sound from a scientific standpoint but, let's not forget that any system of exchange is constructed by humans for the human condition. 

We react differently when faced with possibility of loss than with other risk situations where gain is insured.  Not sure if it was here I saw this

http://www.ted.com/talks/laurie_santos.html

Interesting to discuss but to you would need the entire world to ban usury and I don't think we could ever get the U.S. to go for it.  It would definitely change things.   Why, your stash of gold would be ridiculous in such an economy.  Too many have too much to lose and they would not go peacefully. 

If you think about it, amassing a large amount of excess beyond what you can use is quite ridiculous.  If you can't use it or consume it what purpose is anything?   Really you should either consume it or sell it otherwise, you are just hording which renders whatever it is you have horded useless or worthless to you.   In the case of money the only value you can have other than what you can possibly use is power over others.  That is where we run into problems as a society.  It all comes back to one man seeking to have some power over another.  That's just human nature I guess. 

[Depleted]

Good News on the Rare Earth front. Things are startin g to heat up. is everyone too busy, or asleep at the wheel?...
Check it out...Things are starting to move...cheers, D

[MetalMeister]

I watched that video and the first thing that occurred to me after a few minutes is how does she talk that fast, continuously??

Anyway, I think the perfect economy is all credit(usury) is eliminated.  Usury is used to reduce risk which is why the lender gets such huge amounts of interest in the beginning.  Why not make the lender part of the business?  And once the borrower saves enough money to buy the lender out then the business is his.

That makes it incumbent on the borrower to save, save, save and avoid a more extravagant lifestyle until he amasses enough wealth to raise his lifestyle.  Also makes the lender choose more judiciously who he is going to loan money to in a business venture.

In our current system, the borrow is encourage to amass debt and if he is lucky he is able to pay off his loans or get additional loans to grow his business.

BUT, if the borrower defaults and goes into bankruptcy, the lender loses and society loses because the lender is allowed to write off his losses on his tax filings (which is socialism).

This is why so many Jews are so successful in business is because they avoid debt.  Quote often when a Jewish couple are married, the respective parents chip into to pay for the couple's first house eliminating then having to pay usury.  The couple takes all that extra money, lives frugally and invests that money into a business, often debt free.  Thus over time they amass wealth at a much more rapid pace than other peoples.

It may be sound from a scientific standpoint but, let's not forget that any system of exchange is constructed by humans for the human condition. 

We react differently when faced with possibility of loss than with other risk situations where gain is insured.  Not sure if it was here I saw this

http://www.ted.com/talks/laurie_santos.html

Interesting to discuss but to you would need the entire world to ban usury and I don't think we could ever get the U.S. to go for it.  It would definitely change things.   Why, your stash of gold would be ridiculous in such an economy.  Too many have too much to lose and they would not go peacefully. 

If you think about it, amassing a large amount of excess beyond what you can use is quite ridiculous.  If you can't use it or consume it what purpose is anything?   Really you should either consume it or sell it otherwise, you are just hording which renders whatever it is you have horded useless or worthless to you.   In the case of money the only value you can have other than what you can possibly use is power over others.  That is where we run into problems as a society.  It all comes back to one man seeking to have some power over another.  That's just human nature I guess. 

[pinetree]

Good News on the Rare Earth front. Things are startin g to heat up. is everyone too busy, or asleep at the wheel?...

Interesting chart.  That's had a nice move, maybe I'll look at it on a pullback... if the fundamentals/financials are in good order.   Sunseeker's SRI.V pick is also moving up.

I'm still watching the uraniums but missed the good entries on most of them... I did make a profitable trade in DNN, sold it last week at 1.52 and may look to re-buy on a pullback should one materialize.  Got in MGA at the bottom, and got a little PNP a week ago, but none of the others have pulled back enough for me. 

Other than that it's just day trading the futures for me so I don't track many individual stocks.  It's a lot of fun but can be hell on the eyes if you stare at the charts for too long.

[Depleted]

Hi Pinetree..yes, I agree, once it bursts through the 150ema, watch for a pullback, a brief one, with a "pause". This is usually the insiders shaking the tree one last time. It is at this point the volume will dry up, before they move it higher. It will usually start its run from here.
One day, I may look into options as a possible investment strategy for short-term work in a sideways/choppy market, but i haven't got there yet....Cheers, as always...D
P.S. All you out there...with regards to the OIL SPILL IN THE GULF.... And possible cleanup ideas...
On the news last night, 2 guys from Kelowna B.C. were using cattails in an aquarium filled with salt water/oil mixed. They just used their hands and moved the cattails like batts of cotton, and it pulled almost all the oil from the water into the cattail!!! The man then wrung it out and showed almost all of the oil coming out if it, and then he rubbed his hands into the cattails, and his hands were incredibly clean, just a minor invisible film of oil residue on his hands that could easily be washed out with good soap and clean water.
It may be on Youtube by now, but haven't looked. It was incredible. The one fellow said nobody was interested in the idea because they could not figure out a way to make money off of it, since the cattails could be had for free from the local lilly pad pond. we will one day kill the planet for good, for profit, just give us some more time...