Technical Analysis Page

[jjj000]

The Soap is simply two Stochs showing only the SK part its an 8 and a 5 SK only.

SW - I can't seem to ever duplicate these Stochsatics - 8 and  5 %K period - they always come out super crazy frantic ups and downs when I set mine up - not such a smooth, easy line as they two you have here.

Any ideas what might be different?

[jjj000]

So what would you be looking for in order to consider going long BGZ, rather than short?  It is in a downtrend, but it looks to be possibly changing direction.

Chart signals or not, the Bear 3X etfs all look pretty good now... higher lows, higher highs since last Thursday.

I got out in and out of TZA today, about 7% profit.  Didn't want to hold overnight - waiting on Alcoa earnings in about 30 minutes to see what happens.  If they surprise to the upside the market may bounce tomorrow.

[pinetree]

I don't think you can duplicate the Soap stochastic in stockcharts.  It shows only the K line, and there's no way to remove the D line or change its color in stockcharts.  Check your pm...


Also, I've noticed that TOS allows you to calculate charts including pre and after market trading.  This is a change from my usual charting services because they only use regular trading hours, and can significantly change the position of moving averages on shorter time frames.

SW, on your BGZ chart you have the 50sma at 55.35, but on Schwab and Stockcharts.com they have it up around 58.  TOS had it at 55 too, but when I switched the setting to "trading hours only" it went up to 58.  I guess it's better to include the pre and after market data in the MA calculations...

Sheez... I feel like I've been in the dark ages.

[Bottomfeeder]

Catch up....you guys have been busy....I have some catching up to do on the SW referrals.  I've dabbled, signed up for TOS....That is some nice charting!  Love being able to lay down Finanacci retracements, amazing.  Self fulfilling prophecies?

I exited the remainder of my FAZ today, really struggled.  Yesterday was trying to sell at 17++ late, only to have the bottom drop out, so I ended up buying more at 16.40 end of day.  Failed to sell the gap up early today and placed a stop that got blown thru today from 17.20, got it sold at 17.14 , only to watch it take off at the close.  I am going to to switch to trailing stops to see if I can do better on sell execution.  I am not doing well enough with it.  My buying has been good, not perfect but at least in the right zones.  3j beat me out, I got about 5.5% of a 7% 4 day move, so volitale.  Alot of missed opportunities, gotta get better.  I did think it was a good idea to exit before Alcoa earnings, shorting the market from these levels is pretty risky bet.  The market felt cautious to me.

Did good job with capital deployment at least I managed my overall risk pretty well.    Macke scared me the other day when he said,"its the people who cant hit the sell button who end up eating out of garbage cans", gotta get better.

One thing that I have noticed as about a week long pattern (havent gone back further) is the gaps.  Right now it seems just sell the gap up (FAS or FAZ) in the first hour and buy the gap down after the sell.  Each way looks good for 5-10% for an hour or twos exposure.  Probably get one more in these volitile times.

In looking at the S&P. we are coming down to strong support around 803 (-2% from here) at the bottom of a what is looking like a pretty nice channel.  200 SMA (30 minutes) looks like right at about 803 also.

I think its time to go long here.  If it gaps up and its not overly powerful, which I dont think it will be, wait for a bottom formation to develop in the first hour.  Thats my plan, obviously if 803 breaks get short.

You guys still looking short?

[sidewinder]

been real busy and will try to somewhat catch up here.

First the bgz... as I said these things are new and as far as I am concerned I really dont like the risk involved.  thats not to say you cant make $ trading them and far be it from me to suggest what to trade and what not to trade.  They, as I understad it are derivative of some othere thing and adjust daily and have the habit of jumping and gaps abound. 

Truly ugly charts.  Now as far as I can see after looking at bgz it is trying to make a trend reversal.  the chart below consist of 4 time frames from upper left clockwise 15 min, 30 min, hourly, then the day chart.  you can simply glance at it and see the reversal on the 3 lower time frames.  you can see the build up first on the 15 then on the 30 and finally the hourly breaks out of the 50  (the blue line) and hugs the upper BB (which I forgot to include in the chart).  However, on the daily chart Its not quite there yet.  still inside the BB and Below the 20 and the 50.  Until it goes through those its in a down trend.  So it all depends on what time frame you are going to trade on.  If you plan on only holding it for hours then its tradable I guess.  I mean if you had shorted at the high on 3/9 and stayed in you would have made a pile of dough.  These are ugly charts and with over 7000 more to chose from I personally am not interested in the there multiple X etfs, but that's just me.  I want something that is smoother and more predictable. 

[sidewinder]

jjjooo

SW - I can't seem to ever duplicate these Stochsatics - 8 and  5 %K period - they always come out super crazy frantic ups and downs when I set mine up - not such a smooth, easy line as they two you have here.

Dont know what program you are using so cant be much help... but the stoch settings are exactly what I posted and only use the SK on whatever display you want.   

[sidewinder]

Pintree, here is the TOS code for the "Soap" stoch settings.... Just copy and paste into your "edit studies"   that would be > edit studies > New Study and past the code in the blank box AFTER you name it at the top..  when you get the new study box up it will have a name like New Study1 or 3 or what ever you left on it last time.... in the box below you will see .. 

plot Data  = close;

delete that before you paste this ... save and you will find "Soap" under user defined studies.
I just noticed the code below got spread out a bit but it should work... if not go to
http://www.pc3i.com/fw/studies.zip  all the studies are in that zip file

declare lower;
declare all_for_one;

input smoothingType = 1;
input length = 2;

def priceH = high;
def priceL = low;
def priceC = close;

def KPeriod8 = 8;
def DPeriod8 = 1;
def slowing8 = 5;

def KPeriod5 = 5;
def DPeriod5 = 1;
def slowing5 = 3;

def KPeriod12 = 12;
def DPeriod12 = 1;
def slowing12 = 3;

#### Stoc8.5.3 ####
def c18 = priceC - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod8);
def c28 = Highest(priceH, KPeriod8) - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod8);
def FastK8 = c18 / c28 * 100;
plot FullK8;
if smoothingType == 1
then {
    FullK8 = Average(FastK8, slowing8);
} else {
    FullK8 = ExpAverage(FastK8, slowing8);
}
FullK8.SetDefaultColor(Color.GREEN);
FullK8.SetLineWeight(2);

#### Stoc5.3.3 ####
def c15 = priceC - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod5);
def c25 = Highest(priceH, KPeriod5) - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod5);
def FastK5 = c15 / c25 * 100;
plot FullK5;
if smoothingType == 1
then {
    FullK5 = Average(FastK5, slowing5);
} else {
    FullK5 = ExpAverage(FastK5, slowing5);
}
FullK5.SetDefaultColor(Color.YELLOW);

#### Stoc12.3.3 ####
def c112 = priceC - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod12);
def c212 = Highest(priceH, KPeriod12) - Lowest(priceL, KPeriod12);
def FastK12 = c112 / c212 * 100;
plot FullK12;
if smoothingType == 1
then {
    FullK12 = Average(FastK12, slowing12);
} else {
    FullK12 = ExpAverage(FastK12, slowing12);
}
FullK12.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);

plot fifty = 50;
fifty.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);

plot seventyfive = 75;
seventyfive.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);

plot twentyfive = 25;
twentyfive.SetDefaultColor(Color.GREEN);

[sidewinder]

Dont know who all has taken advantage of the TOS deal but there are so many new people in the TOS chat I hardly know who I am talking to over there and dont have much to say during the day anyway.. But one of the guys has put a google group together and has all the information (or at least most of it) posted for downloading.  just go there join the group and you will have access to all the latest chart study setups and some of the pertinate chat logs that should answer any questions you have.  as far as the TOS software is concerned just start clicking buttons and find out what it can and cannot do.  doing is the best way to learn.  besides it's fun. 

http://groups.google.com/group/firstwavers/web

[sidewinder]

BF

good move checking out TOS.  I had been noticing everyone had been posting using stockcharts which is a fine deal.  I used it for some time but found it cumbersome and limited in what you can do with it. I was trading using that limited information and found out it was like taking a knife to a gunfight. There are a ton of good traders that trade from home full time.  I had no idea.

I finally went to TCnets telechart2000 and wow what a diff.  Now have added the TOS and frankly like it better.  only thing is TCnet can sort every stock on the market and return only the ones that meet the criteria you set.  you can write your own formula.  So I guess I will keep both. 

I only mentioned this TOS deal because right now it wont cost you anything to get the trading education of a life time. 

GLTA

[sidewinder]

So, since you don't like these ETF's, what do you prefer to trade?

Pinetree, I know some guys that only trade one stock and only that one stock.  They have for years and profits are quite good.  There are as many trading plans as there are people.  My problem was, I had no plan.  Just some money, little bit of smarts (so I thought) and was aimlessly buy this, buy that, buddy gave me a tip (how’s that working out for ya).  Casey says this, Dines says that, Man what a ride. 

I am not trading anything at this point in time except a shot at the YM (the Dow emini) occasionally because I am in a learning phase.  I am however, selling what I have been holding into this rally.  The remnants of my past mistakes will soon be a thing of the past.

All this depends on your time frame.  If I was thirty years old and had a long time before retirement I might hang on to some of crap I have.  I don’t have 30 years so long term stuff that may be worth a fortune in 2039 is worthless to me at this time.   

Patience has been the hardest thing to acquire.  I always wanted to be doing something.  Buying or selling without real target.  That too is in the past.  If you have not read Van Tharp’s book “Trade your way to financial Freedom”  do it.  If you have, read it again.  I am in the process of developing a trading plan that works for me and hope to be ready for the coming smack down. 

If you look at the DOW or S&P weekly charts ….. What’s to be excited over?  The Dow is up against the weekly 20 SMA but yet to break it.  The Weekly 50 is at 9822 and we are currently making a downward correction.   I can see us drifting back to 7580 or so and getting a snap back up.  Matter of fact if you look at the daily chart and have the Snapback template loaded you can see the SBU forming.  A move back to the 7550 line would be healthy for this rally if it can hold in that area.  Any break of the last low of 6469 will not be pleasant for some. As I write this the YM is down at 7653 down about 140 points from today’s close so unless something happens in the next few hours the market will open down in the morning. 

 I am waiting for some sign that the rally is over then will short everything known to man.  I did go long on GLL which is the ultrashort gold and whippy like the other ultra etfs but was so sure of it and was patient; rode it up till yesterday.  I mentioned on this board when I bought it.  Also some options which I sold to quickly. 

As more bad news keeps coming out about fraudulent the banks have been and how the powers that be have been covering for them confidence will go lower and we should see 5000 and below and I expect below.  We are after all following the same policy that Japan did in the “lost generation” of the 90’s.  I have been thinking about the market going up on one end and gold going down on the other, somewhere the line snap and gold may be a good thing.  My guess is around 670 and that of course is simply a guess.

Beware the shills on the TV.  Cramer declared the “depression” over the other day.  That should send fear reverberating all around the world.  We’re still in a bear market rally until proven otherwise. 

[jjj000]

So, since you don't like these ETF's, what do you prefer to trade?

Pinetree, I know some guys that only trade one stock and only that one stock.  They have for years and profits are quite good.  There are as many trading plans as there are people.

I have been trying to narrow my trading down to a handful of stocks as well.  I'd like to get it down to 4 or 5 with some sector diversity, some market cap diversity, and then just play them both ways.

I love the 3X etfs as much as I hate them.  The profit potential is undeniable... but I think in reality you could probably have done as well percentage-wise just by trading C or BAC.  Of course then you expose yourself to the particulars of that one stock, which in the financials could be a disaster... but you get the idea


=============

SW, PT - thanks for the info on the SOAP formula.  Where is davidslane on this??  He's an engineer, right?  I bet he'd love getting into all those if-then clauses and stuff

I noticed in your SOAP code there is a smoothing=1 setting.  I wonder if that is what is making your stochs line so nice and clean???  Would one of you two mind disabling that "smoothing" parameter and see if the chart goes all whacky on you like the stochs on any other charting service turn out...??


=============

BF - per my note on the general discussion thread... I hear you... I have a sneaky suspicion there may be a surprise move to the upside soon.  But that should be it before the sell off, methinks.  A lot of people have been coming out and saying there will be a sell off - Soros, newsletter guys, brokerages, even some Yahoo stories.  So a crazy short cover bump would not surprise me.  Give it a day or two though, tops, in my opinion.

Wait and see mode tomorrow...

GLTA

[sidewinder]

jjj, I took the smoothing out and the plots look the same. 

[Peter518]

Seems a range day today.

In hindsight, today the best time to buy crude oil was at 10:25 AM, before the EIA report (10:35 AM), since the report was priced in due to AIP report released yesterday evening.

I bought QM in my simulation trade at $48.50 yesterday evening, apparently a little bit early. 

[Peter518]

Indeed, today is a range market day: BUY low and SELL high is the strategy.

One can make money both way if one is nimble enough.

[Bottomfeeder]

Peter....completely agree, thats why I am the bottomfeeder .

Seriously though, its a bear market not a bull, so it makes no sense to bhsh to me, would just be buying tops all the time.

Nice Mega move today....gotta see whats behind that one, actually the U's did pretty good today.....maybe JD is doing a mail campaign.

Sold half my FAS at 6.23, when my nice little uptrend broke, tried to buy back in at 6.04 but missed it.  Tomorrow I will buy the gap down and sell the up, if its there.

GLTA