Thought Provoking

[Bottomfeeder]

I always enjoy SW "life" posts.

Drinking human ashes?  Yikes! 

I think I have discovered a new market for KFC....

[sunseeker]

Comment from a leading Conservative Member of Parliament today:

http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/161479/Obama-shows-contempt-for-Britain/

“He began his term as President by sending back the bust of Churchill which used to occupy a prominent position in the White house and now has the gall to ignore the wishes of the Falkland Islanders and heaven knows how many UN decisions and says he is “neutral” about who owns the islands.

Fine. Then we can be neutral about him the next time he asks Britain to back some US venture. Like so many Americans, Obama thinks the US need not worry about any opinion but their own and that the rest of the world is somehow insignificant.”

May I suggest that someone buy him a copy?

ATB 

[Bottomfeeder]

Nice suggestion there SS......

Not sure if it will be enough though as it is difficult to ever like narcissists, especially highly educated ones.  It only makes the disorder even more powerful and repulsive.

Funny thing Narcissism.  A guy that is super intelligent with good self esteem is just that until you realize that he is not what HE thinks he is, then YOU become surprised and disappointed.

How amazing is that?

Speaking of winning friends and influencing people.  Don't know if anybody caught the news (Im sure everybody HERE did) of another great long time servant of America, Representative Charles Rangel, is "temporarily" stepping down as CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE, after having been slapped on the wrists for ethics violations story below:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33694.html

and his history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_B._Rangell.

Thanks for some of your service, now please leave, you have morphed into a criminal and should not be deciding on inflows and outflows of capital. 

Probabe outcome?  He will get re-elected again.  Thread drift..should be in "How  did America....blah blah blah..." sorry about that.

[sunseeker]

Hi BF
How ya doing?

My portfolio is doing well. That isn’t very difficult to achieve when you consider how much US/ Canadian exposure I’ve got and how the £ has devalued against both currencies. 

I’ve always regarded you as something of a good luck talisman so it’s good to have you back again. 

ATB

[Bottomfeeder]

Thanks for the welcome SS.....

Portfolio is doin ok, kinda lateral actually for a while, but I am not complaining.  I made a few lucky entries last year and have benefited from the long term hold strategy for the past 13 months.

Bought some total market index 8% from bottom, added some MSFT, INTC, Visa, Uranium One and Uranez.  Pretty selective entries on the individual stocks and have done pretty darn good.

Made the mistake of selling AMZN at 97, right BEFORE it popped (still waiting for the govt to start taxing them heavily at different state and fed levels) but still did pretty good.

I still have about 7-8% of stock equities in gold and silver miners, Fronteer, Fortuna, and Yamana and Treasury Metals.

My U portfolio is sitting about 35% below 5/09 top, but I did accumulate some cash so getting pretty close to deploying here pretty soon I think.  Pretty happy with where they are sitting relative to the spot price.  That portfolio is up 45% from March 30, 2009, which is the last time the spot price was at this level of $40.

I continue to watch the long term fundamentals of the sector, and am extremely bullish looking towards 2014 ( I know that is shocking everybody here ).  I think that as long as the spot price holds this level the miners will do fine.  Should it break below look out.  IF it  starts heading up, then I feel pretty strongly that Merv's index will have a major upside breakout from the 195 level, which will more than likely translate into another 300% move up, based on his projections and the previous move .  The index looks to me like it is well positioned right here right now to take off on a decent move up in spot.  I am sure that it is also "wishful eyes", but I am sticking with it.

 I do wish that I could somehow make some utilities start stepping up to buy and have a couple of  sellers sit on their material heavy hands.

No hurry though for me, I can wait. . 

I think I have finally learned that while having patience can sometimes be trying, when you finally actually make it a significant part of your persona.  It actually creates alot of personal peace and serenity, which is a pretty cool place to be with your investment dollars, and makes the truth much much easier to see. 

I hope the "how ya doin" was really asking me to answer   I always enjoy your presence as well so ATB right back atcha. Tell Mrs SS it was a Euro man kiss.

[sunseeker]

Hi BF

I hope the "how ya doin" was really asking me to answer

It was.
The reply was a very welcome insight and more than I expected.

Good news for Yamana:
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=100026&sn=Detail&pid=92730

Good to hear that you’re doing very well.
Gold and silver holdings plodding along very nicely (PEZ, ORM, RRS (GOLD), are probably the only familiar ones to you). No holdings making a loss. Non mining NYSE:SNS and CZZ have done me very proud.  It’s getting very close to that time when I consider taking profits and/or selling holdings. I hope you caught the copper strategy posts as it worked a treat once again.

ATB 

[Bottomfeeder]

Yeah I missed the copper strategy, but was thinking about you as the price was rising!

I really need to try and consolidate my portfolio more before I can expand it, if that makes any sense at all.  I am trying to become more diversified, but with my mentality it just takes me alot time to do that.  Not sure if that is good or bad.

I am HOPING I am RIGHT on an upward move in U spot price and how it should again correlate to my portfolio as it will give me a chance to consolidate some of my spec plays through SELLING!!!! 

I have 30 miners, and would LOVE to cut it in half, the only problem is I only have 3 or 4 that I dont like, and there are 3 or 4 that I would like to add so thats a problem for me. 

I definately need to look harder and dig into some balance sheets, and weigh MORE the short term risks associated with DILUTION I think to guide me, as opposed to relying so much on the quality of the land holdings and geo-political risks.  That should help me cut it down more.

I having been looking more at getting involved with more diversified miners (one reason I selected Yamana was their copper production) so I would like to create a mining portfolio that has more internal pairing of assets within, that are still small enough for big moves but more stable than micro small spec plays.

First Uranium would be another example with their VERY LOW COST GOLD mine waste solutions paired with the U production.  They are in the middle of a mess right now and dilution or takeover looks possible now, with the takeover maybe being at a discount.  But I do like their business strategy.  I also like Gold Wheatons business model.

Bottom line I have about 50 stocks and I would like to get it down to 30.  I really need to spend alot of time figuring out what I am going to sell soon so I can have a good rebalancing plan for some 3-5 new entries for 2010.

Enjoying your active presence these days SS, stay off vacation!

[sunseeker]

I having been looking more at getting involved with more diversified miners (one reason I selected Yamana was their copper production) so I would like to create a mining portfolio that has more internal pairing of assets within, that are still small enough for big moves but more stable than micro small spec plays.

Hi BF
I only popped in briefly. I only intended to have a quick look but I noticed your post and felt the need to correct your misconception. Yamana has traditionally hedged it’s copper production. The extent of their copper hedge gives you a free ride on their gold production. But it’s not a play on the rising price of copper. The sweetest situation for the Yamana SP would be for Copper to tank and Gold to soar. DYOR as I don’t want to mislead you. I only look a quick look but this seems still to be the case.

The company hedges their copper to lock in future gains. Now for net income and cash flow data:

http://www.poeticportfolios.com/?p=15

Need to rest the peepers now.

Catch you tomorrow

ATB 

[jjj000]

I hope you caught the copper strategy posts as it worked a treat once again.

Speaking of seasonal plays... don't forget the Russell 1000 re-balancing this year.  Should be in June I think.  Last year you could throw a dart at the list and make 20% in a short swing trade.  Our old friend URZ was added and went from about 1.39 to 2.40 in about a week.  Then everyone sold and it went back down to 1.40 a week later

[Uboat]

Bf, leads for your rebalancing plan

http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/mar042010_juniors.html

http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/mar042010.html

[jjj000]

great link uboat, thanks

[sunseeker]

Good week or what? Eh (A)? (Paraphrasing JDH).

Some very “Thought Provoking” facts about China.
One of my ex bosses and a partner in the business I used to work for sent me this link (also links to follow-on pages):

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-facts-about-china-that-will-blow-your-mind-2010-2

Links
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-countries-on-the-verge-of-a-demographic-crisis-2010-2

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-international-catastrophes-2009-12


Hi Uboat.
I agree with jjjooo. “Really Great Links”. Thanks for sharing.

Hi jjjooo
I like looking at and for reliable seasonal plays and indicators. I’ve made a note of your post and I’ll keep my eyes open and seek your views and current thinking nearer the time if that’s OK? Thanks for sharing also.

Of interest:
2009
http://www.nasdaq.net/PublicPages/Russell_Rebalance.aspx

2010
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/27219372/Russell-Sets-Index-Reconstitution-Schedule

http://www.pr-inside.com/russell-sets-index-reconstitution-schedule-r1751270.htm

Hi BF

but in reality PRICE DISCOVERY uncovers mistakes.  Depressions result from large declines REALIZED from such discovery.

+

Problem is it continues to be very hard to get the politics out of the money, and vice versa.

 
Very well put BF, and I concur.

FYI
Missed off the stocks we where talking about but still holding PNP by the way.

What a truly Great team we have here. 
ATB to all 

[Bottomfeeder]

Thanks for the links Uboat....man talk about data to comb through!  Excellent info.

SS...Thanks for the piece on Yamana, it was excellent.  I realized that Yamana has their copper hedged, which is fine.  That hedge provides the credits which basically make them a very low cost gold producer. 

I realize that many investors don't like hedging strategies on gold miners, I am not one of those.  Commodities are, as we all know very high risk investments and miners that can hedge both up and down, reduce volitility, (from the standpoint of actual financial performance) and create an environment (at least theoretially) that allows them to strategically plan by creating a set of "fixed conditions".   IMO this reduces the risk of poor execution due to "unforseen market conditions", which is the benefit of being associated with hedged multi-asset miners.

Anyway that is my reasoning for it. Don't really think it helped out the stock price in "the crash", but it did provide great value for entry in 2009.  It still is looking pretty good (fundamentally) trading at a P/E of about 22 vs the GDX which is trading at a P/E of about 108.  Both have moved about 300% from bottom, but IMO even with the diversification provided by GDX, AUY looks to be the less risky proposition.

If I can ever come up with the time and motivation, I should go back and check AUY's actual performance with the projections provided by the author, see how that shook out.

Thanks again for the info, and keep taking care of those eyes man!

[sunseeker]

Hi BF/ Onlooker
Thanks for your good wishes. The eye is much better now. Cancel the dog and the white stick (Keeping the sunglasses though).LOL
In all seriousness you don’t realise the strain that relying on one eye even for a short time puts on the good one. I don’t particularly like Gordon Brown but due respect to the man (he’s only got one eye) in that sense he manages admirably.

ATB 

[onlooker]

It is no secret that China and Russia have solid bilateral trade agreements.

So, it should come as no surprise that Russia is issuing IPOs at the Hong Kong stock exchange.  One Russian IPO turned into many.

See:

A Hong Kong IPO From Russia, With Love             September 28, 2009

Efforts by Hong Kong’s stock exchange to court listings from outside of mainland China and Hong Kong might just be paying off.

Plans by Russian aluminum giant UC Rusal to go public in Hong Kong by as soon as the end of this year offer the latest data point. As The Wall Street Journal reports, people familiar with the situation say a listing would value the company at as much as $30 billion. A planned listing of 10% of the shares would put the IPO at a hefty $3 billion, no small change in the current economic environment.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/09/28/a-hong-kong-ipo-from-russia-with-love/tab/article/

See:

Russia tycoon mulls Hong Kong IPO of gold assets   Feb 15, 2010

Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg said on Monday his gold business, Kamchatka Gold, will hold an initial public offering in the fourth quarter of 2010 in Hong Kong.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61E39120100215

See: 

Is Hong Kong the New London for Russian IPOs?

It began with Rusal, the world's largest aluminum producer, which raised $2.2 billion in an initial public offering in Hong Kong earlier this year. Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska used the listing in part to shore up his finances after accumulating billions in debt. In 2008, he bought a 25% stake in Norilsk Nickel from fellow billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov at the top of the market; facing margin calls, he received a $4.5 billion loan from a state-controlled bank.

Now other big Russian players may be lining up to list in Hong Kong as well.

http://blogs.forbes.com/billions/2010/02/25/is-hong-kong-the-new-london-for-russian-ipos/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

Does this mean that Russia will be making use of the Hong Kong PMs depository?

See: 

Gold depository launched at Hong Kong International Airport    September 2009

A depository allowing banks, exchanges and refineries to store gold and other precious metals has been opened at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA).

~    ~   ~   ~

"Being an international and regional aviation centre where the flows of goods and capital converge, HKIA provides an ideal location for the depository," he stated.

HKIA was founded in 1998 and offers flights from 85 airlines to some 150 destinations around the world.

http://www.marketintelligence.gold.org/news/2009/09/03/story/12867/gold_depository_launched_at_hong_kong_international_airport/

Is a new world order happening?  Financial mecca cities will be Hong Kong, and cities other than New York or London in the future?  Perhaps Toronto will be one of them?  Will the following article be outdated in the not so distance future?

See:  http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1704398,00.html