JDH commentary. “My Apologies For Gold, And More.”

[sunseeker]

Hi JDH

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/martin-armstrong-t1015.0.html;msg9814#msg9814

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stock-market-for-april-2009-bottomfeeder-t1009.0.html;msg9879#msg9879

I know how you feel.

First rule of investing is don’t loose money. As is the second, the third………………
I can only say that it’s better to be safe than sorry. 
What you never had you should never miss.
No use crying over spilt milk.
Don’t look back in anger (OASIS).

I think we are in agreement that some sort of a correction is on the way. It would be sickening to think that because all our cash was tried up there was nothing to do but ride the market down or stomach an immediate loss. After a correction comes the recovery. But the first sectors to show strength and promise may not be the ones that expect. How infuriating would that be? Cash is king at that point.
 
ATB 

[jjj000]

I think the more important question right now is "how much lower can the US Dollar go?" rather than "how much higher can gold go?"

My view of the USD right now is that it feels very similar to the public relations beatings the banks were taking in Q1.  Around March people were fearing that Citibank and BofA would be taken over by Big Brother.  Well, now we are fearing that Big Brother will be taken over by China.

Of course we all know what followed with the banks.  Fed intervention, resulting in a historic rally, going on 6 months now, to save the bank's asses and the new admin's political capital.

So I think now we need to look for the signals of the dollar bottoming.   Perhaps it happened last week.  Perhaps it is yet to come.  We'll have to see how much negative news they can drum up against the USD, and who wants it more - those pushing for a weaker dollar or those wanting stronger.

And if/when the dollar starts to recover, the market, including commodities, should correct.

And of course we have new earnings season just getting started too.  Any surprises by the banks will be a huge determining factor.

At least that's just my guess, but what do I know... 

[jjj000]

So I think now we need to look for the signals of the dollar bottoming.   Perhaps it happened last week.  Perhaps it is yet to come. 

Well... new lows on USDollar overnight tonight.  I thought we had bottomed already but apparently not.  Downward still we go...

[Depleted]

Hey jj000- I will be looking for the bottom of the US Dollar Price, but even more importantly, IMHO a Bottom Retest. The uraniums have woke up, and maybe the slight increase in spot price is making a lot of the U miners nervous like the horses before they come out of the gates. A lot of them are getting jumpy. BAY.V I suspect will have legs, a lot more than 1 day, due to fact it has had a long, long time down along the bottom to clean out the weak stock. Iron ore with BIM.TO and my Breakwater (BWR.TO) have got me glued to the charts. MGA.TO will shine again, still "licking my chops",as someone once said, waiting for the bottom retest on it, Mega have as we all know, the pounds in the ground on this one, so it's life is far from over. I like the  cork effect in stocks, a hard deep plunge into the water, then they come back to life....

Dananini - hope you got into some earth bugs out there in this past year, to make up for all the entries you were into when the U's ran hard. Maybe you and Mr.D are on talking terms now?     
cheers...D

[onlooker]

jjj000:

I think the more important question right now is "how much lower can the US Dollar go?" rather than "how much higher can gold go?"

Well... new lows on USDollar overnight tonight.  I thought we had bottomed already but apparently not.  Downward still we go...

Don’t be so hard on yourself.  I think you have investment, and not psyche abilities.  Here is a respected analyst who makes a case that the US dollar can rally, and as a result, gold can go down.

See:  http://www.stockhouse.com/BULLBOARDS/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=27533757&s=YNG&t=list&l=0&r=0