JDH Weekly comment 28 August

[sidewinder]

I don't comment on Martin's stuff too much lately but I do read EVERYTHING he writes.  I have my own reasons for that. 

I was thinking the same thing JDH is saying in this post.  I wouldn't be too worried about getting that one wrong or right.  It's the macro not the micro anyway which is important.  Martin have been saying exactly what JDH wrote for some time in all his writings and I too will be watching closely over the next several weeks for additional signs for direction.  Let's not to forget to look at weekly and MONTHLY closing numbers for the clues.  Anyway glad to see someone paying attention JDH nice heads up for everyone. 

Hope you all are reading JDH's weekly comments they are certainly worth while.  Thanks JDH

[MetalMeister]

JDH might have already revised this thoughts on the Hindenburg Omen by now...

Here is the latest:

Recent occurrences

    * August 12, 2010: The Omen's creator, Jim Miekka, considered the Omen officially triggered on this date with 92 and 81 new 52-week highs and lows, respectively. The McClellan Oscillator was a negative -120.03 and the 10-week NYSE moving average was rising; the market closed above its open of 50 days prior (May 27). [5]. In the ensuing week, the Omen narrowly missed confirmation twice (August 13 and 19).

    * August 20, 2010: According to the Wall Street Journal, the omen was confirmed on Friday, with 83 new 52-week highs and 95 new 52-week lows on the NYSE. The McClellan Oscillator was a negative -106.46 and the 10-week NYSE moving average was rising; the market closed above its open of 50 days prior (June 11). [6]

    * August 24, 2010: 166 New Lows, 87 new Highs, McClellan Oscillator was negative, but the 10 week average began to fall. (Non-Confirmation.) (Although the 12 week average is still positive.)

    * August 25, 2010: 150 New Lows, 90 new Highs, McClellan Oscillator was negative, but again the 10 week average was falling (Non-Confirmation.) (Although the 12 week average is still positive.)

And you have to remember that August 19 was also a small fraction of a point off qualifying as a confirmation.

So what do we have now?  An occurrence and 3-4 confirmations now...

Going to be a spectacular Fall (pun intended again)

Hope to purchase all my silver this week and get out of cash completely and ready for the crash.  I have thought about waiting until after the crash but everyone seems to think the precious metals will go up this time unlike 2008 - 2009 when they went down preceding/leading the market.

Hoping for a knockdown in Silver on Monday/Tuesday.

[sidewinder]

Well, I have to say that Friday produced an engulfing bull candle on the daily charts.  In addition on my stuff that action triggered but signals on the ES.  However most everything, although buy signals were triggered, are pretty much at the top indicating any move up would be short and sweet.  So, this is why I agree with JDH in his assessment. 

But remember, we are in a schizophrenic market for the lack of a better word.  Overnight I have been short the S&P futures and as of right now going flat in order to be ready to make long entries if that becomes the case.  I would expect some dip in the morning and a move up in earnest later but am not married to any bias at this time and bearish in the mid term. 

YC you should read Martin's latest message "Australia & The Current Account Deficit"  in which he speaks of Capital Flow and the history of Arbitrage as it relates to the relationship between gold and silver.  A little detective work can produce good results in this area.  Lord knows, there is plenty of material available with GATA and others constantly yelling about this.  You just have to remain unbiased when assessing these things.  Just the facts for trading decisions any thing else is simply speculation although it make a great conspiracy platform.  Anyway back to my charts as the action is about to begin.
 

[sidewinder]

Well, it just wouldn't let me out.  Kept going down all day.  Flat on the close and taking a shot on long position and in at 1045.50 on the ES.  You could say the ES is forming an inverse H&S on the daily and a stick sandwich with last Thursday and today having the same close at 1044.75.  That's bullish enough for me to give it a shot tonight.  We shall see, close stops on this one ACH.

[sidewinder]

so far that didn't work.  You know what the say about bottom fishing.  They end up becoming lunch.  LOL. 

[MetalMeister]

Thanks for the Martin Armstrong heads up, I found it and will read it later today.

Gold and silver had an amazing day today while the market did little.  More on that in the PM thread.