JDH WEEKLY COMMENTARY - I WAS WRONG

[Croaker]

JDH, I am with you on this one. I am still scratching my head wondering how the market keeps going up.

BUT!!!!

I am still 100% in cash, so you should be good to invest 100% of your money. Because when I put my money back in the market the arrow will point down.

I will let you know when I go back in so your can pull your money out.  I am still looking at Oct/Nov time frame, so you should still get a good run in before then. 

As I said earlier, I will probably miss a boat load of opportunities.  And did I ever.

BUT!!!!

I still think there is another drop coming. This crazy Bull run needs to correct sometime.

[sunseeker]

JDH Today.

I give up.
On Monday morning I will take my portfolio, which is essentially all cash at the moment, and I will invest it in index funds, or stocks, or ETFs, or anything associated with the market. Everything is good, and I want to be a part of it, so I will fully invest.

 So JDH is all set to break camp and head off back into the woods.



That’s far too reckless for me. Dripping gradually back into the market is the only sensible thing to do. Even so hold back some cash to take advantage of a drop. Fully blown bull markets are the only time to be fully invested. Banks are failing, unemployment is rising. Personal and government debt are both rising. Results come in better than expected but they still aren’t that great. China could turn the screws at any time, or suffer a down turn itself. Nothing much has really changed. It doesn’t strike me as a bull market.
This week I put a small amount of my cash into a real estate company after 2 days it has risen 30%. Oh no if only I had put in more or everything I had into it. But what about the times when I have had high hopes and put more in than I should have and the result has gone the wrong way.
If you adopt an all or nothing approach then you have to be prepared to walk away with nothing. ETFs, and Index Trackers can still leave you with heavy losses in a sharp downturn. I know I used them as a backup strategy during the Tech boom. 

ATB 
 

[Bottomfeeder]

SS...I think that was a satirical comment from JDH, at least I hope so, otherwise that could be the top!

But I think you are right you just have to pick away. I strongly encourage people to watch the  200 DMA to get a better grasp of things.  The 200DMA on the SnP just started turning up, much like the economy is and clearly the market is ahead of itself, much the same way it was to the downside.

People looking for their to be a direct coorelation with the stock market and main street are IMO looking for Utopia.  The markets crashed on "where things could go worst case scenario" and now are pricing more of where we could be in 6-12 months.  Profits are competing against some pretty weak numbers comparitively next quarter, so that should be positive.

The markets are trying to find "normal" again, which should be decreased economic activity from 1500 SnP levels, but certainly "at least to" before Lehman Brothers collapse.  So that would put us in a sustained range IMO of around 1000-1200 SnP for a L shaped recovery.  Still I anticipate a correction down below 1000 after we reach "the pinnacle".

I dont think one can look at 666 being any more rational than 1050 looks now.  666 is what makes 1050 look crazy to me.  Equilibriam is coming though pretty soon though and  fair value should start becoming more apparent.

Theres .02 for ya. 

[sunseeker]

Hi BF and JDH

SS...I think that was a satirical comment from JDH, at least I hope so, otherwise that could be the top!

 

It seems I got suckered in by the headline comments when I posted yesterday. Reading it again in the cold light of day and without a glass of red in my hand, I can see how I misjudged JDH’s comments.
As with investments be quick to realise and acknowledge your mistakes and move on.

I do stand by other aspects of that post though. You can’t live your life looking back at what could have been. I heard on the radio this morning about this story.

http://in.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idINIndia-41915020090823

Imagine if you realised that you were just before or just after that person to buy your lottery ticket?
Should you go back to that same place and buy a lottery ticket before and after every person in the shop next time?
I think not.
I am saying don’t beat yourself up over things like that. Accept that it’s part of life. Learn a lesson if there is one to be learned and remember it for the future. That’s all you can do. 

My 30%er this week was down to noticing a similar pattern of buying in the lead up to results being released by that company way back in time. It helps to have a good memory for those things. Get a note book and pencil if you haven’t. It must be a throw back to school days but if I really want to remember something for the future I write it out 50 times (and sometimes I change the colour to reinforce it).

JDH I should have read your commentary more thoroughly. I am SORRY.
JDH I should have read your commentary more thoroughly. I am SORRY.
………………

To stimulate the economy even more perhaps government ought to encourage vandalism. Think of all the extra work that would create.
That’s not a serious suggestion by the way.

ATB 

[Bottomfeeder]

Ha...SS....to add to your post, I have a bit of a funny story for you. 

A few weeks back my girlfriend was walking our dog in the park and managed to step in some "dog doo", and decided to phone me up to tell me of her incident.  She then went on to tell me that her mother had always told her that when "that" happens she should go  and buy a lottery ticket as it was "good luck".  Being perflexed wondering how in the world that could be good luck I pondered her next request for my "favorite numbers", none of which I have, other than of course 300, which wasn't available.

But in trying to be a good sport and not poo-poo the situation, I gave her "personal" numbers instead, including numbers from date of birth, social security, age of adulthood and so on.  To my amazement when we checked the numbers later that evening, we missed winning quite a bit of money by ONE NUMBER, which netted us $350 instead of $250K. 

Turns out the number missed was another "personal number" of significance.  I mentioned this to a few friends of mine, and most all of them said "oh man I'm sorry to hear that".   It was funny as I hadn't even thought of the consequences of "getting all of them", but was instead happy and shocked to win $350, as the odds of even winning that kind of coin in a lottery are so remote.

Funny how differently people can look at the same situation I guess is my point.  Even funnier is I haven't played since, although I  have thought  about it a couple of times.

[sunseeker]

Hi BF

Sometime ago a very good friend of mine showed me his lottery ticket, and the winning numbers. He didn’t have one number correct. That’s not unusual in itself, but what was unusual was that every one of his six number selection was just one number above being the jackpot winning line. Now that’s what I call bad luck.

We have a saying where we come from “Muck for luck.”  Your girl friend and Mrs SS have the same mind set, given the same situation she would have wanted to buy a lottery ticket too.

Personally I have never considered stepping into something nasty as anything but bad luck, but there you go.

Good luck next week. 
http://www.worldofstock.com/slides/HUM1402.jpg

ATB 

[pinetree]

Funny story BF.

I pondered her next request for my "favorite numbers", none of which I have, other than of course 300

That, of course, must be a reference to Merv's target.

[Bottomfeeder]

PT....bingo

Oops wrong game....

Good luck next week guys