Tell me what you think

[richmanch]

I'll go along with the predictions, though I agree that some of it, like the quarterly predictions might be kind of hard and random. I disagree that the short term stuff is much easier, though I don't have nearly the education or expertise as some. It seems that market movers are aware of technical stops and break points, and they break them when it's in their interest to do so. I'm rooting for you guys that are doing it though, except when you short stuff that I'm holding long--then you're on your own.

Right now, I'm thinking that oil and energy stocks are in the process of bottoming and overcorrecting. I've been buying. I think I might have underestimated how friendly the Bush admin was to oil, and failed to consider the oil charts stretching back before 2000. Still, the panic selling that's been happening in that sector seemed to be a good time to buy for me. I hope they shoot up right away, or I hope they go down further so I can buy more. It can be win/win. Oil will be 60, 80, 100 again, though I can't say if that will be June 09 or December 09 or June 2010...

[JDH]

So if I may summarize the thoughts of the group: Predictions in a market like this are the same as throwing darts at a dart board, blindfolded.

If this past year is any indication, you are all correct.

Okay, how about this one: what will be the spot price of one ounce of gold on December 15, 2008 (one week away)?

Here's a guy who thinks it will be somewhere closer to $500.  It's an interesting article; it's probably nonsense, but it does make you wonder.  My gold stocks had a nice up move today, so I may lighten up tomorrow.  Here's the link:

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/8/Horrific-gold--dump---Is-this-guy-for-real-Thom

[davidslane]

Sounds like a crack pot.
And anybody writing for World Net Daily and communicating with Jerome Corsi (the Obama is a closet Muslim story writer), makes me very skeptical.


Plus, if the central banks want to prevent deflation at all costs, then they need gold to start to drift up, not crash to show that there is a little bit of inflation in the system!



But, for a mere $100, you can buy 10 $64 GLD put contracts for a week from Friday.

A move to $500 would net you $14,000.


There's still a chance you could sell out on Thursday if you were wrong and still even make back $50.  But whatever you bet on this, don't expect it back.

[MetalMeister]

I think that he is completely ignorant of the true, physical precious metals market and unbelieveable demand for delivery of physical metal.

China recently announced plans to buy 4000 tons of gold as quickly as possible.  They could gobble up all 3000 tonnes instantly and not even break a sweat.

It would take a horrendous drop in markets and/or massive continued shorting of gold and silver to drive prices down any further.

Just my two cents!

So if I may summarize the thoughts of the group: Predictions in a market like this are the same as throwing darts at a dart board, blindfolded.

If this past year is any indication, you are all correct.

Okay, how about this one: what will be the spot price of one ounce of gold on December 15, 2008 (one week away)?

Here's a guy who thinks it will be somewhere closer to $500.  It's an interesting article; it's probably nonsense, but it does make you wonder.  My gold stocks had a nice up move today, so I may lighten up tomorrow.  Here's the link:

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/8/Horrific-gold--dump---Is-this-guy-for-real-Thom

[JDH]

davidslane and yellowcaked: I agree, the guy sounds like a crackpot.  However, if enough people believe it, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Your suggestion is a good one: buy some way out of the money options; if there is a massive move, you win.  If there isn't, you lose the premium you paid, but it is probably an insignificant amount.

The only thing about this theory that makes me nervous is that if you believe the conspiracy theories, a big crash in gold would be great to allow the short sellers to cash in and clear out their positions; there would then be a big spike up in gold, which would allow the big boys to play the upside.

I don't plan to take any action, although with the nice action yesterday I may lighten my holdings a bit; I just like watching what the crackpots are saying for the entertainment value.

(And don't forget urbansurvival.com's predictions of two big earthquakes this weekend. )

[davidslane]

When yellowcaked and I both agree, you now we must be unto something.


The IMF isn't about to dump gold and take down the gold market.

The article said this predictive guy was shorting gold since it was $450 three years ago. Hasn't been right there yet.


As for the self fulfilling prophecy, the only folks who could fulfill a $267 drop in gold in one day is all the governments working together, and there is no rationale that they would do that.

On the contrary, as yellowcaked said, more likely they'll let gold go to $1,500 while devaluing their own currencies.

[Uboat]

It is lunch time and time to reflect on the gold race. There seem to be more emotions in gold than in most other commodities.

While I tend to agree with the concept of manipulation of gold and the markets, I find it unrealistic for the IMF to sell all their gold when it is much easier to print money for the intended purposes. Furthermore a drastic and unprecedented move of selling all the gold would draw more attention to manipulation and would unsettle the markets. Neither of these should be in the interest of the IMF.

Neither do I believe in the other side of the cold coin which is predicting tsunami rises in the metal into the thousands. It is just another metal, although a precious one. Presently I am bullish on it and enjoy the gains.

[jjj000]

For the next week, I see gold right now in the middle of a trading channel, with resolution open up to 810 or down to 700.

If price rises above 780 it should continue to 810, if it drops below 750 it should continue down to 700.

If it were to drop to 650 it would probably take until January I would guess, so that options play would be super risky.  And options on GLD or IAU (now available) come with heavy premiums.  Might be better to play options on a gold miner, if there are any left still priced over $30   They tend to drop more dramatically in proportion when spot drops anyway.

I picked up some puts on Harmony and another one last week, I forget which.  They are all worthless as of today, but if that 750 support should break they should do well...