PNP.TO waiting, then staging to go...an early July crossover/trend change?

[Depleted]

Extending a solid trendline from April 2007 past today, (which has 4 good anchor points) and adding months (time ) into the chart, we have the current downtrend *crossing* over/then below the price if at $3.00 per share around July 1st. (Which means a forced breakout above the current downtrend). Does this mean the current downtrend is exhausting itself? An early july crossover into positive territory could be the early beginnings of a new uptrend. Hopefully this means it is staging for a fall rally. Only time will tell....in 2.5 months or less....Thoughts team...
Thanks... D

[jjj000]

I see exactly what you are talking about in that chart.  Merv's index also seems to be in that trading channel he has picked out as well... similar to the specific action on PNP.

I just don't trust it yet.  I guess it would have to nosedive all the way down to 2.00 to resume the trendline there... which at this point is not out of the question, but would be hard to believe.  But a number of other U's are living on their own charts - DIT, FSY, MAW, etc. - so I think it's pick and choose at this point.

I need to see a series of two subsequent "higher lows" for me to have any faith in an uptrend resuming.  I do think your timeline is reasonable, however, seeing all the recent news and keeping my fingers crossed for some announcements to come.

The $2 drop to $69/lb u308 this week didn't help... but surprisingly it seems to have not affected the U's too much in the past couple days.

Anyway... random thoughts, sorry

[TheSlowLane]

Looks like there is support in the $3 area.  Or it could be in a range between $3-$5 for some time.  Ask again in six months and I will tell you for sure.

[Depleted]

Hi SlowLane,
Nice chart. Shows it all. Just for fun, could you change your price scale to logarithmic, redraw your downtrend line, and post the resultant chart? thanks...D

[jjj000]

it is an interesting chart.

Particularly how the 50-day EMA served as a bottom indicator while PNP was on the way UP, and now it serves as a TOP indicator while PNP is on the way down.  SlowLane - is that something you look at/for?

by the way, thanks for the posts and for bringing some much needed enthusiasm and new blood to the board here... I think we are all getting a little frustrated and ornery amongst ourselves

[TheSlowLane]

Hiya - here is the requested chart, with log scale this time.  I generally only use log scale for long-term charts or when I want to make them show me what I prefer to see, ha ha.   Using the log scale, the trendline is not broken.

As for the question about watching EMAs as support/resistance, yes that is something I watch.  It is something that many technical traders watch so can serve as something like a self-fulfilling indicator.

Finally, I don't know if this has been discussed, but I have heard that Sheldon Inwentash got a couple of massive margin calls (like, in the hundreds of millions).  I have no way of verifying that, but if it is true, it would tend to help explain what has been happening to our poor U juniors.

[jjj000]

TSL- have never used EMA's before, thanks for the tip.  Self-fulfilling indicators are the best kind   I'll do some more looking into that.

Hadn't heard about old Sheldon and the margin call.  Sad.  It would make some sense... margin calls are surely what led to the whole sector push off the cliff... so why not lump him in with the rest of the fund traders?

What would be more of a surprise/downer to me would be if old Jimmy Dines got caught on a call... that would be real damaging to his rep.  I don't want to start any rumors though - that was pure speculation

[Depleted]

From www.canadianinsider.com

Pinetree Capital Ltd. (PNP)
   As of April 21st, 2008
Filing   Transaction Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acq/disp Price
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Apr 21/08 Apr 11/08 Inwentash, Sheldon    Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    1,000,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Sferra, Donato    Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    25,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Goldberg, Larry    Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    100,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Auerback, Marshall    Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    25,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Harder, Vernon Peter Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options 25,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Perry, Ronald S. Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options 25,000    
Apr 18/08 Apr 11/08 Moore, Kent Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    25,000    
Apr 17/08 Apr 11/08 Maruzzo, Bruno Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options 25,000 $3.140
Apr 17/08 Apr 08/08 Maruzzo, Bruno Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition -50,000    $3.040
Apr 17/08 Apr 11/08 Patricio, Richard J Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options    100,000

Sheldon gave himself 1 million options at 3.00-3.25 range...thats 3-3.25 Mil.
So that means he can exercise them above the 3 buck range and pocket the difference.
This looks reeeeal good to me. I hope my interpretation is correct...
This also means 3.00 is the basement price on this one, for this term, anyway.
Patience may pay off yet...fingers crossed....

[Bottomfeeder]

Yeah not surprising on the margin call really.

I followed that thread that was provided, and was only able to find a rumor of a call I think it was in November.  (Scary- look at so much stuff  I can't remember what i read yesterday!)

Anyway it would seem to be old news and not currently what is creating resistance on the juniors.

[TheSlowLane]

As I just posted on another thread, I know for sure that at least ONE of my juniors is getting hammered by a distressed hedge fund tossing everything over the side.  The geniuses probably threw the lifeboats overboard first.  At any rate, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fair amount of that going on.  The good news is that there will be fancy office furniture coming to the auction market for cheap in the near future.

[Bottomfeeder]

Did anybody catch Pinetrees Quarterly this week?

So you thought you were having a bad quarter?  Sheldon lost 82M, although only I think 8-10M realized.

But I guess it would be foolish to expect otherwise from a company that funds micro cap stocks.

So anyway their NAV drops from 4.20 the previous quarter to 3.70 this quarter.

The stock is trading at what about 25% below NAV? 

I have been accumulating