Bitcoin and Bonds

December 2, 2023

Two charts for you today.  First, Bitcoin: For those who haven’t paid attention, Bitcoin is up almost 140% year-to-date and is the best-performing asset class of the year.  So, in hindsight, on New Year’s Day 2023, we all should have purchased Bitcoin. More than half of that increase has happened since the middle of September, […]

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A Deep Dive on Bitcoin

November 25, 2023

I believe Bitcoin moves in cycles (that coincidentally or not are roughly aligned with the US presidential election cycle).  The all-time high was in November 2021 at around $69,000 uSD. By November 2022, Bitcoin was below USD 16,000,  for a peak-to-trough drop of over 75%. Since then, Bitcoin has been up 145% and will be […]

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TLT: Did I Get Too Cute?

November 18, 2023

I believe interest rates are heading down, so I bought TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF to profit from that. This week, TLT was up over 3%. Beautiful. But I got greedy and wanted more, so on November 14, I sold the TLT November 17 $90 calls for 66 cents.  I owned the […]

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I Have Nothing to Report

November 11, 2023

My post last week describing how to play the crash in interest rates has worked out well, but one week is not a trend, and interest rates did tick up at the end of the week, so let’s not draw any conclusions yet. We are clearly in a recession or close to it.  I won’t […]

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How to Play the Collapse in Interest Rates

November 4, 2023

Interest rates, particularly at the short end, are collapsing.  That’s not surprising.  We are in a recession.  Consumers have less money, so they buy fewer cars, houses, and everything else, so the demand for money decreases.  Less demand = lower prices, and the price of money is the interest rate.  It’s that simple. Here’s the […]

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Interest Rates Appear to Have Peaked (Maybe)

October 28, 2023

On the one-year chart, the Canada 5 Year Government Bond Yield has rolled over: From the peak on October 3, the 5-year is down 9%, falling from 4.45% to 4.066%. So does that prove that interest rates have peaked? Perhaps.  I hypothesize that we are in a recession, and in a recession, we borrow less […]

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Where are we now?

October 21, 2023

On October 7, I predicted that interest rates have peaked, as expressed by the Canadian 5-Year Bond Yield. Here’s the updated chart, that shows that yes, interest rates appear to have peaked: But, I can show you the same chart, and draw an up channel showing that the drop on Friday is merely a minor […]

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Lower for Longer?

October 14, 2023

Last week, I said that interest rates have peaked, and I showed this chart: So far, so good.  The 5-year Canada Government Bond Yield closed at 4.212%, a further drop since last week, so the prediction still holds. But what about the future?  Let’s review some history: Interest rates were low, personal savings were non-existent, […]

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Interest Rates Have Peaked

October 7, 2023

I’m calling it: interest rates have peaked.  It’s all downhill from here.  I’ll be more specific: The Canada 5 Year Government Bond Yield peaked at 4.461% on Tuesday, October 3, 2023, a 11:45 am.  Here’s the chart: That’s crazy, you say.  The trend is clearly upward.  Yes, it is, but here’s my thought process: The […]

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Have Yields Topped?

September 30, 2023

I have no idea. The Canada 5-year yield dropped from 1996 through 2020.  It got down to around zero, and has climbed since, closing Friday at 4.25%  Here’s the long term view: And here’s the short-term view: Over the last week, the yield has been flat.  It “double topped” at 4.78% on Thursday, and then […]

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