This Week’s Commentary – December 30, 2006

The price of uranium held steady this week at $72, but almost all uranium stocks were up, and it was a great end to a great year. I am happy to report that for 2006 my actual portfolio was up 94%; you can see full details on the Portfolio Performance page. Of course the spot price of uranium was up by over 60% this year, and many of the uranium stocks were up a lot more than that, so even though 94% sounds great, there were many mistakes made in 2006 that, if they had been avoided, would have resulted in an even better performance. Learning from our mistakes is the reason this blog exists; it forces me to think through my decisions and post them, so I, and everyone else, can review them later.

An example of a mistake? Last week I said “I also think that TUE.V – Titan Uranium Inc. has broken down, so I’m selling it.” I sold, and it was up over 2% this week. Live and learn, I guess.

So what’s in store for this week, and for 2007? My review of the charts tells me that most stocks are holding up very well, so I see no need to start selling, at least not yet. However, nothing goes up in a straight line, and nothing goes up forever. I’d like to hear your thoughts, so I have added a discussion board to the Forum called 2007 Predictions; let’s find out how many readers think we are near a top in the uranium bull market.

The other interesting discussion this week centered around James Dines, publisher of The Dines Letter, and whether or not he is completely ethical. The fall out started on December 4 in a press release where Pinetree announced that it had been advised by the Ontario Securities Commission that it and Sheldon Inwentash (its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer) are the subjects of investigations involving manipulative trading in securities. Of course PNP.TO – Pinetree Capital Corp. immediately tanked, but then recovered when Dines issued his now famous Interim Warning Bulletin advising subscribers to “back up the truck” and buy Pinetree. Dines prophecy may have been self-fulfilling, because since then Pinetree has been on an upward tear, and closed at an all time high on Friday.

However, a number of our readers posted comments on my blog post: Pinetree – Does It Smell Fishy, and the general consensus seems to be “where there’s smoke there’s fire”, meaning Dines may be too close to management to be objective. I’m torn on this one. I agree that it all looks suspicious, but the stock price keeps rising. I would like to hear more of your comments, so I’ve opened up a discussion board called Dines and Ethics; please share your thoughts.

On a related topic, I am completing my research on Cline Mining, yet another Pinetree company. I have uncovered some very interesting activity; I’m not quite finished, but I promise to post my complete report on Tuesday morning, January 2 (I don’t expect to get much work done on New Year’s Day, for obvious reasons). I promise this will be my most interesting post so far, so make a note to return here Tuesday morning (or set your RSS reader to subscribe to this blog).

Thanks, and Happy New Year!

Charts Updated This Week

• BAY.V – Bayswater Uranium Corp. – it’s approaching a new high, so my previous advice to sell may have been premature; speculative investors can start buying; I’m close to fully invested, so I’ll wait until the new high is made.
• BTT.V – Bitterroot Resources Ltd. still a hold, but MACD has improved, so will probably become a buy shortly
• CMK.TO – Cline Mining Corp. I have started coverage on Cline; not yet on the recommended list; my research is not yet complete, so check back Tuesday morning for my full report
• CXX.V – Crosshair Exploration & Mining Corp. I sold my shares at $4.00 on December 11; it closed at $3.32 on Friday, so it was the right move to sell. I still like it, but it appears to be breaking down, so I will wait to get back in; (this is a play on the Dines Letter recommending this one at some point in the future, which should cause a nice pop, probably well over $4.
• FRG.TO – Fronteer Development Group Inc. Still looks great.
• MAW.V – Mawson Resources Ltd. Mawson is now on the Dines Letter recommended list; I sold it on the pop when it was recommended, and it’s still going up; I’ll wait for the consolidation before getting back in.
• SAN.V – Santoy Resources Ltd. Santoy is now on the Dines Letter recommended list; I sold it on the pop when it was recommended, and it’s still going up; I’ll wait for the consolidation before getting back in.

 

Happy New Year!