Last week I told you I was the stupidest, and luckiest, person in the world. This week I proved it (at least the stupid part). On Monday, after watching the market severely correct in response to the earthquake in Japan, I started buying Cameco on the assumption that the uranium correction was over done. Oops. I guess I was somewhat early on that call. I paid about $1.50 for the April 32 call options, and by Friday they were down to 80 cents. I’ll give it another week or two to see what happens. I will either be proven early, or proven incorrect.
Of much more interest than my jumping the gun was the news that Martin Armstrong has been released from prison. (Thanks to onlooker, sidewinder and others on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum for bringing this to our attention. I started the Forum so we could share our knowledge; this is a good example of exactly that process in action, which is why even though I rarely comment on the Forum, I check in on it every day).
Martin Armstrong was released after 11 years in jail. For those of you not familiar with his case, you can Google him and find out more. Of interest as well was his release of a report dealing primarily with his expectations for gold called How – When, which you can download from his website.
His prediction is that June 13/14, 2011 will be a key turning point for the market. He says:
The best of all worlds for a bull market shall be for gold to make a low on that day. This will be the best possible signal that the next 4.3 years will be very interesting indeed.
What does he mean by “very interesting indeed”? He means that if gold continues trading as it has, we are set up nicely for the next stage of the bull run. He continues:
As I have said previously, there does not appear to be a likelihood of any real BEAR MARKET with a profound crash. The key support lies in the $1,000 to $1,100 zone. Because the important support is so high, it is not likely that there would be a big V type bottom.
Of course, like all prognosticators, he doesn’t spell it out exactly, because presumably no-one can see the future. However, he does say that:
Only a monthly closing BELOW $1,150 would signal a bear market. This does NOT appear to be in the cards.
He says that there is major resistance in March at $1,531.19. So far gold has only managed to trade just above the $1,440 level in March, before dropping back below $1,390, before recovering to close on Friday at $1,418. His prediction for March:
Instead of holding the December 2010 high, gold will exceed it in March 2011. If we do not surge beyond $1531.19, then we can still pull back at the very worst to $1,040-$1,150. Getting ABOVE that level to $1775, on the Middle East stuff, then the base support will simply move higher in the $1400-$1500 level.
So he’s saying that there is key support down to $1,040, but even a decline to $1,000 is not damaging.
I guess we wait and see. Mr. Armstrong, like all prognosticators, is sometimes correct, and sometimes wrong. I’ve watched in the past as his key dates come and go, so there are no guarantees that he will be correct on this one.
However, I am of the view that gold is headed higher, and it makes sense to me that a pause to build a base is a good thing, so for now, I’m holding all of my gold and silver holdings.
As for the other gurus:
James Dines of The Dines Letter is of the view that we are nearing the bottom of this correction, and it’s time to start selectively buying.
Casey Research is more cautious, preferring a wait and see position for at least a few more days before giving the all clear.
And George Ure and Clif High over at Urban Survival continue to say we will be entering “release language” around March 25. Unfortunately for George and Clif, they seem to have missed things like a massive tsunami and nuclear melt down over the last 10 days. I realize no-one can predict the future, but this is a big miss. If they are actually reviewing forward looking data from the internet, this one should have been obvious. Oh well, so much for their “rickety time machine”.
To be fair, they did talk about “rivers of radiation” in their last report, but they went on to blame this radiation on “unknown energies from space”. Sorry guys, I don’t consider that to be a correct prediction.
As for me, I have no doubt that the currency collapse will continue, so gold and silver are the only form of money that will retain it’s value. And yes, the nuclear industry took a big hit with the earthquake in Japan, but the simple fact is that we have no other choice if we want the lights to stay on. Coal is dirty, and coal mines collapse. The sun doesn’t shine all the time, and the wind isn’t always blowing. Natural gas pipelines can explode, and oil is the most dangerous energy source of all (if you consider spills in the Gulf, and wars in the Middle East). Ultimately nuclear is it.
That’s my report. I’ve just returned from a week’s vacation in Florida, so my report is somewhat abbreviated today while I recover; you can read all about it in my post on Universal Studios Orlando Sucks – My Vacation Report.
Thanks for reading and contributing; see you next week.
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