Your Predictions are in: Where the Dow and Gold will be in 2012

I am pleased to report that a number of you have submitted your predictions for 2012, and since in the past you have proven to be very good predictors (in 2010 you were freakishly accurate, since we predicted the gold price correctly within $2 of the final price, and in 2011 we were also relatively accurate), I assume we will all make all of our investments based solely on the following two tables.

Or not.

Here is a mathematical summary (the average) of our Forum members’ predictions for 2012:

The Price of Gold Will Be:

The DOW will close at:

The consensus appears to be that gold will continue to increase as the year progresses, and the Dow will continue to erode into the middle of the year, and then remain flat for the balance of the year.

You can see each person’s individual predictions by scrolling down on the right hand side of this page, or by going to our 2012 Predictions Page.

Comments? Agree or disagree? Want to understand why someone is predicting what they are predicting? Post your questions or comments on the 2012 Predictions Board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum.

You can see my predictions on the JDH 2012 Predictions page, but here’s the summary: I’m more optimistic on the price of gold than you are, and I’m more pessimistic on the Dow.

You expect that gold will increase over the year from the $1,600 level to about $1,900 by the end of the year.  I think we will see $1,900 by the middle of the year, and $2,100 by the end of the year.  In fact, a big part of my brain thinks we will see $2,500 at some point this year, so perhaps I should have asked each of you for a maximum prediction during the year.  We could easily see $2,500 in November, and then $1,900 in December.  Picking exact numbers on exact dates is a fool’s game (that each of us are all to willing to play, obviously).

As for the Dow, you think it will close the year at 11,725; I’m thinking more like 9,500.  Ouch.

Of course the truth will depend on government actions.  If the government continues to print money, and if the world doesn’t care, then the Dow could be 14,000 very soon. (Interestingly, Uboat thinks it will be 14,000 on March 31, and ChrisC thinks it will be 14,275 by the end of the year.  Those were the two maximum predictions from the group).  Uboat and ChrisC could very easily both be correct.  If the Eurozone situation is fixed, 14,000 in three months is quite possible, and is even more achievable by the end of the year.

Of course I have no sense of optimism, and I expect that government efforts will ultimately fail.  I may be correct, but my timing may be completely wrong.  Perhaps the balloon will remain inflated for many more years to come, in which case I will look foolish.  Time will tell.

If the market does well, it’s possible that gold will do well.  Or not.  In a liquidity crises everything gets sold, so again, time will tell.

For the record, my prediction of gold at $2,100 at the end of the year is exceeded only by Beginner’s prediction of gold at $2,300 by year end. ChrisC is at the other end of the spectrum, predicting gold at $1,550 at the end of the year, and Croaker is not far behind, predicting gold at $1,590 on December 31, 2012.  Obviously one of us will be spectacularly wrong.

(It will probably be me, so sell all of your gold, now!).

Comments? Agree or disagree? Want to understand why someone is predicting what they are predicting? Post your questions or comments on the 2012 Predictions Board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum.

Thanks for reading, and predicting; see you next week, with some ideas on how to invest in 2012 (all suggestions welcome on that point as well).

Tagged as: 2012, 2012 predictions, Dow, Gold