Microstrategy: Is the Bump Over?

by JDH on November 16, 2024

As discussed last week, President Trump’s re-election set off a boom in the stock and crypto markets. They can’t and won’t go up forever. Has the bump-up stopped or paused, or does it have more legs?

My guess is that there is more gas in the tank.

As of 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, Bitcoin is trading at just under $91,000 USD, a touch off the all-time high of just over $93,000 set on Wednesday.  Bitcoin is at $127,000 CDN, just a touch lower than Wednesday’s all-time high.  There is no overhead resistance when trading at an all-time high.  The only apparent resistance level is a line drawn across the previous two all-time highs, which is right around where Bitcoin is now trading.

A pause would be normal, but I don’t see any logical scenario where Bitcoin doesn’t hit $100,000 USD in the next few weeks (or tomorrow).

My favourite Bitcoin trading vehicle, MSTR—Microstrategy Inc. is also on a rocket ride.  MSTR closed on Friday at $340.65, lower than Wednesday’s all-time high of around $383 but an increase of just under 400% since the start of the year.  As the chart shows, the rate of acceleration is increasing.

The math is simple. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has increased 115%, and Microstrategy has increased 400%.  That’s leverage.

It’s not just leverage; it’s crazy leverage. You can buy MSTR on margin (I don’t), but Microstrategy is also issuing convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin, so it is hyper-leveraged.

I’m not assuming that MSTR will continue to rise at four times the rate of Bitcoin, but if Bitcoin hits $100,000, that 10% increase could be a 40% increase on MSTR, so a $475 MSTR in the next month or two is not out of the question.

Yes, Microstrategy could drop 50% tomorrow.  It’s very volatile.

But if you have a reasonable shot at a 40% gain in a month, why would you not allocate at least a small percentage of your portfolio to the rocket ride?

You be the judge.  See you next week.