June 24, 2023
The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 4348, the same level it was at in July 2021. Back then, real interest rates were negative 1.7%. Today they are positive 1.85%. How is that possible? How can interest rates be massively higher, and yet the stock market is trading at exactly the same level? The answer, of course, […]
Read the full article →
June 3, 2023
Let’s discuss a commodity we never discuss on this little blog: oil. Oil is down 13% since April 12, 2023, and down 43% since the peak in March of last year. Does the WTI chart look inflationary to you? After the spike, the price of oil is unchanged since the beginning of 2022. That doesn’t […]
Read the full article →
Holding Pattern
August 12, 2023For now, we wait. My best guess is the market may have one more pop up left, but I expect that by the end of the year the market will be much lower. So, I’m primarily in cash. Here’s what I’m watching: First, unemployment. Yes, I know the numbers look good, but if you dig […]