Mid Month Update

by JDH on May 15, 2021

It is May 15, 2021, so here’s what’s happening:

The world has not ended.  The stock market is holding in there.

Gold

After a double bottom in March and April at around $1,675, gold has bounced back to $1,838, but the one-year chart continues to show a clear downtrend, and with the RSI approaching 70 it is likely that we are approaching a local top for gold.

Perhaps not.

If gold can get above the prior top at the beginning of January of around $1,950, further increases are possible, but for now, I’m thinking the short-term trend is more likely to be down than up.

I am not doing any new buying.

Crypto

This brings us to the much more interesting world of crypto.

As I write this shortly after 7:00 am on Saturday morning, Bitcoin is around $48,600, which is near the bottom of its trading range since the first week of March ($47,000 to $65,000, it’s a big range).  I don’t think Bitcoin is dead.  Far from it.  A more likely scenario is that the whales are using this as an accumulation opportunity, and I continue to expect to see Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.

Ether is rocking, up 450% on the year, and easily my best investment year to date, through QETH – The Ether Fund, so I’m happy about that.  I’m not crazy, however, so I did take some profits this week, and will likely continue to sell on further strength.  Ether peaked just under $4,400 a few days ago, and currently sits at $3,888.  I expect $10,000 Ethereum, likely before the end of the summer, but we shall see.

I’m not going to comment on Doge, because it’s a joke.  Literally.  Yes, it’s up 12,000% on the year, but I don’t own any, and I’m not buying any.

Of more interest is Cardano, and its native token ADA, which is up a modest 1,200% year to date.  I will leave it to you to do your own research.  This one is real.  However, generally, after a big move is not the time to buy, so I’m not saying to buy now, just to keep an eye on it.

Interesting times.

Perhaps next week we get a massive crash.  That will make for an interesting discussion, so tune in next week and let’s see what’s happened.  For now, ride the wave.

See you next week.

 

 

Hang in, or Bail?

by JDH on May 8, 2021

A lot of green on the stock screens this week.  That’s good.  Everything is up.  Gold.  Stocks.  Crypto.

But we all know “sell in May and go away”, so is it time to take profits, move to cash, and wait for a correction?

Probably, but the correction could happen tomorrow or six months from now.  Do you want to be on the sidelines for six months while the markets are humming higher?  No, you want to generate as much profit as possible.  So what’s the play?

I don’t know, but I did do some selling this past week.  I was close to 100% invested, and that’s dangerous, for two reasons.  First, in a crash, you lose money, and second, even without a crash, you have no cash to take advantage of potential deals.  So, I took some profits and moved a small portion of my investments to cash.

My biggest winner so far this year is QETH – The Ether Fund, which, as the name implies, invests in the crypto asset Ethereum.  Ether is up around 400% year to date, and I’m guessing it won’t keep going up 100% each month, so some profit-taking was in order.  Ether briefly touched $3,600 USD this week, and it is quite likely it will hit $10,000 before the end of the year, but it is also quite likely that it will have a 30% correction at some point in the next month or two, so taking profits is never a bad idea.

I guess if the crash happens tomorrow I will wish I cashed in everything, but for now, some cash is the safe play.

We shall see.  More next week.

A Bounce Back Week for the Cryptos

May 1, 2021

I assume some of you are growing bored with my continued commentary on the cryptocurrency world, as compared to comments on stocks, or gold, or some other asset class, but here’s the thing: crypto is fast becoming the most important asset class. Really? Yes.  Not the largest, of course, but it currently has a market […]

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The Crytpo Crash

April 24, 2021

Last week I asked: Has Bitcoin Topped?  In the short term the answer, apparently, was yes.  After hitting almost $65,000 on April 14, Bitcoin has “corrected”, trading as low as $47,400 last night, for a 27% drop in 9 days. Is this the end of Bitcoin?  I doubt it.  30% correction is very common, and […]

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Has Gold Bottomed? Has Bitcoin Topped?

April 17, 2021

Good questions.  I have no idea, but allow me to engage in some unfounded, uninformed speculation, because that is of course what you pay me to do. Let’s start with gold.  Gold had a great run, topping out well over $2,000 an ounce in August 2020, before starting a long slide to well under $1,700 […]

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The Cash Accumulation Phase Begins

April 10, 2021

The S&P 500 is at 4,127, an all-time high.  The DOW is also at an all-time high.  The Toronto Stock Exchange was down on Friday, but it too is just under an all-time high. Will the markets continue to make all-time highs, forever? No, that’s not the way math works. Historically, the saying is “sell […]

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Crypto on the Move

April 3, 2021

I know you come to this site to read my disjointed and rambling thoughts on real things, like the stock market and gold, and not unreal things, like the crypto market, but here’s the thing: the “real” world isn’t doing so well at the moment. While the United States appears to be “over the hump” […]

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Nothing is happening

March 22, 2021

Strange times.  Nothing much is happening.  Gold is stuck.  Cryptos are in a trading range.  The markets were higher on Friday, but they aren’t making new highs. The most interesting news is that a ship got stuck. Go figure. So, until something happens, I have nothing to say, so let’s see if by next week […]

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Tesla – Yes, I went there

March 13, 2021

Gold is fading, cryptos are doing well buy not exploding upward, so what does one do for fun? Buy TSLA – Tesla Inc. As readers of this blog will know, I am NOT a Tesla fanboy.  Quite the opposite, in fact.  I don’t think their cars are anything special and without massive government funding, they […]

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Gold, Bitcoin, and Inflation

March 6, 2021

Gold Well, gold isn’t doing well. From a peak of well over $2,000 in early August, gold has collapsed, dropping almost 19% over the last 211 days.  The chart shows an obvious downtrend, with no obvious signs of support, as gold closed on Friday under $1,700 per ounce. A drop to well under $1,600 is […]

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