Bitcoin: The (Temporary) Top is In

February 10, 2024

Today, a deeper dive into Bitcoin.  Let’s start with the five-year chart: I’ve drawn the long-term trend line, starting with the peak in 2019, and then pivot points in 2021, 2022, and 2024.  I’ve also drawn in a shorter-term trend line starting at the October 2022 peak.  I’ve circled the pivot points: Keep the big […]

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Here’s the Thing

February 3, 2024

The market sure looks over-extended: The S&P 500 Index is up 126% from the pandemic lows.  It’s up 42% since the lows of October 2022.  The economy doesn’t look great.  Unemployment is increasing, inflation remains problematic, wars are ongoing, immigration is a massive problem in North America, and we are in an uncertain election cycle.  […]

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The Macro View

January 27, 2024

Let’s start with the macro view: specifically, when will the recession start? I am on record as expecting a recession last year, and it does not appear that a recession started last year, so what’s the deal? The deal is that “fiscal stimulus” is still a thing.  The federal governments in both the USA and […]

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The Pre-Collapse Holding Pattern

January 20, 2024

I have no idea if we will have a collapse.  The S&P 500 made a new all-time high this week, which is either proof of a new bull market or a sign of a double top (since the market is now back to the peak set at the start of 2022). Gold is also stuck […]

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Bitcoin: The Only Story This Week

January 13, 2024

That was quite a week, eh? As was widely expected, on January 10 (the last day possible, given the results of a 2023 court case), the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs.  The big question was “what would that do to the price of Bitcoin?”  Here’s what I said last week: My guess is it […]

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And so we wait

January 6, 2024

The discussion on crypto Twitter for the last few months is “when, or if, the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETFs?” The SEC approved Bitcoin Futures ETFs, but they exist to help Wall Street make money.  They don’t help investors. In its quest to protect investors, the SEC approved futures bitcoin ETFs before approving spot […]

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2023 Review and 2024 Predictions

December 30, 2023

Let’s start with the 2023 year in review: overall, it was not a great year. The SPX was up 25% this year, so you would think it was a great year.  Unfortunately, I did not “bet the farm” on the SPX.  The TSX was up 8%.  What accounts for the difference?  The gain in the […]

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A Pre-Year End Review

December 23, 2023

So where are we at? Not where we thought we would be. At the end of 2022, “everyone” predicted a recession in 2023 and a stock market correction or crash. As of the close of trading on December 22, 2023, the S&P 500 is up over 25% for the year.  The QQQ (Nasdaq) is up […]

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The Year End

December 16, 2023

This is not my year-end recap and predictions for next year post.  I might do one, or I might not.  But I can tell you which way the world is going. First, inflation is down.  Way down.  I predict that we will see a CPI print of zero in the summer of 2024.  Why? Money […]

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Quite the Run for Bitcoin

December 9, 2023

Since November 15, Bitcoin is up 25%.  I guess we should have loaded up last month, eh? Year to date, Bitcoin is up 175%.  I guess we should have loaded up on New Year’s Day, eh? Of course another perspective would be to say that since the peak in November, 2021, Bitcoin is down 29%, […]

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