A Great Week for Gold, But Time for Short Term Caution

by JDH on January 28, 2012

Finally, a decent week for gold. Sweet.

Gold was up 4.3% on the week, for the biggest weekly gain in three months. (Silver did even better, up 5.4%). That’s four weeks in a row of increases, and gold is now half way back from where we were after the “crash”. Here’s the chart:

Gold peaked at just over $1,900 at the end of the summer, and then “crashed” to under $1,550 in late September, and then again in late December. The month of January has been a golden month, with gold now at $1,732, an increase of around 12% since the lows at the end of 2011.

More importantly, the downtrend that started with the peak last summer appears to be broken. That’s good news, and should bode well for gold going forward. More charts (all of which you can click on to enlarge):

Here’s AEM.TO – Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.:

Not exactly the greatest looking chart, considering it’s a blue chip gold stock. Fortunately the collapse has ended, but there’s a lot of overhead resistance before this one will look good.

G.TO – Goldcorp Inc. looks considerably better, having not suffered the same collapse:

The long term uptrend was never broken, so a move up to the $54 level shouldn’t be that big of a stretch. For Agnico-Eagle to return to old highs will take considerably longer. Therefore I would be over weighting Goldcorp, and under weighting AEM. There are even better charts, like this one of FNV.TO – Franco-Nevada Corp. (I like it, so let’s make it really big.):

This is a stock that is very close to all time highs, so again, this would be a candidate for over-weighting. (As an aside, back in July I wrote a post on Franco-Nevada Corp – Time to Buy?, and I concluded that yes, it was time to buy, and I did, and I’m quite happy with that decision, thank you very much).

The silver stocks still have some catch up to go, but I’m still holding SLW.TO – Silver Wheaton Corp.:

There is obvious support at $27.50, and new highs in the near future would not surprise me. I’m holding.

However, let me offer two cautions:

First, the Relative Strength Index on all of these stocks is getting “toppy”; anything over 70 is a warning sign, so we may be approaching a short term top. My portfolio is up 12% this month, which is obviously not sustainable over the long term, so taking a few dollars off the table now to lock in profits would be prudent. I’m currently 30% in cash, and I’ll probably increase that to 40% or more this week.

Second, the general market is looking oversold, and if the market crashes, so to will all of our stocks. Last week I predicted a near term top in the markets, with the S&P 500 at 1,315. On Friday it closed at 1,316. Here’s the chart:

So, since I predicted the top, the market has advanced 1 point. I guess that makes my prediction wrong, but that’s fine, I’m sticking with it.

To summarize: I will drastically reduce my holdings in the under performers this week (like AEM.TO – Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.) in anticipation of short term weakness and to lock in profits, and then I will place stink bids to increase my holdings in the better performers on any weakness.

All comments welcome; feel free to agree or disagree; see you next week.

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