2014 is now over, and it’s time to reveal the winners of our annual predictions contest. At the end of 2013 I asked you to predict the closing price of gold and the Dow, and now I report on the results of our 2014 Predictions:
The Dow ended 2014 at 17,823, so the winner is Peter518 with a very accurate prediction of 18,000, only 170 points from perfection. Well done.
I predicted a crash, taking the Dow down to 12,000, so I wasn’t even close. The average prediction of the group was 14,758, so we were all much too pessimistic.
As for gold, the winner is Beginner with a prediction of $1,100, only $83 from the actual closing price of $1,183. Well done.
I predict $1,600 gold, so I wasn’t close. On average we predicted $1,329, so again we were pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on your point of view).
Our best year, as a group, was 2010. At the start of 2010 we made our predictions, and the group, on average, was near perfect. At the start of 2010 the group, on average, predicted that the Dow would close at 11,667. As it turned out, the Dow close for the year at 11,577.51, so your predictions were freakishly close to the actual number.
Want to try again this year?
Send me:
Prediction #1: The closing level for the Dow on March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015, September 30, 2015, and December 31, 2015.
Prediction #2: The closing level for one ounce of gold, in U.S. dollars, on March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015, September 30, 2015, and December 31, 2015.
Prediction #3: Anything else you want. The price of silver or oil, your top stock picks, who will win the Super Bowl, whatever. It doesn’t count in our contest, but it will be recorded for all time, just for fun.
As in past years, the prize in the contest is nothing other than bragging rights. As of now only Beginner has posted his predictions (and he won the gold prediction for 2014), so I’ll keep the contest open until noon (eastern time) on Tuesday January 6 for whomever else wants to jump in.
You can e-mail your predictions to 2015predictions@buy-high-sell-higher.com or you can post them on the 2015 Predictions board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum. I have re-opened the ability to sign up as a member of the Forum (I can get a lot of spam, so I leave it disabled most of the time), so if you want in, now is the time.
My Plan for 2015
So what’s my plan?
We know the you-know-what will hit the fan at some point, we just don’t know when. You can’t print money forever with no consequences. We just don’t know if the end will be tomorrow, or ten years from now. So, here’s my plan:
First, I will ride the winners. For the first time in a long time I took a position in AAPL – Apple, on Friday, picking up shares for $109.32; my target is $130 per share. However, to mitigate risk, I plan to do short term covered writes on the stock as it moves up, to lock in the gains.
The other winner I will ride is TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, a play on continued low interest rates. It’s been a good play for me over the last two months, I expect it to continue in 2015. It’s a sit-and-hold for a while (until the crap hits the fan, and interest rates start increasing, at which point I bail).
Second, I will hold my core gold stock holdings, as insurance against the big one. But, again, if they have a few days of strength, I’ll do some covered writes to lock in the gains.
Beyond that? Who knows. I’ll keep holding cash in case we do have a crash.
That’s the plan. Thanks for reading. Thanks for predicting. See you next week.
2014 Prediction Results – Predictions for 2015
by JDH on January 3, 2015
2014 is now over, and it’s time to reveal the winners of our annual predictions contest. At the end of 2013 I asked you to predict the closing price of gold and the Dow, and now I report on the results of our 2014 Predictions:
The Dow ended 2014 at 17,823, so the winner is Peter518 with a very accurate prediction of 18,000, only 170 points from perfection. Well done.
I predicted a crash, taking the Dow down to 12,000, so I wasn’t even close. The average prediction of the group was 14,758, so we were all much too pessimistic.
As for gold, the winner is Beginner with a prediction of $1,100, only $83 from the actual closing price of $1,183. Well done.
I predict $1,600 gold, so I wasn’t close. On average we predicted $1,329, so again we were pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on your point of view).
Our best year, as a group, was 2010. At the start of 2010 we made our predictions, and the group, on average, was near perfect. At the start of 2010 the group, on average, predicted that the Dow would close at 11,667. As it turned out, the Dow close for the year at 11,577.51, so your predictions were freakishly close to the actual number.
Want to try again this year?
Send me:
Prediction #1: The closing level for the Dow on March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015, September 30, 2015, and December 31, 2015.
Prediction #2: The closing level for one ounce of gold, in U.S. dollars, on March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015, September 30, 2015, and December 31, 2015.
Prediction #3: Anything else you want. The price of silver or oil, your top stock picks, who will win the Super Bowl, whatever. It doesn’t count in our contest, but it will be recorded for all time, just for fun.
As in past years, the prize in the contest is nothing other than bragging rights. As of now only Beginner has posted his predictions (and he won the gold prediction for 2014), so I’ll keep the contest open until noon (eastern time) on Tuesday January 6 for whomever else wants to jump in.
You can e-mail your predictions to 2015predictions@buy-high-sell-higher.com or you can post them on the 2015 Predictions board on the Buy High Sell Higher Forum. I have re-opened the ability to sign up as a member of the Forum (I can get a lot of spam, so I leave it disabled most of the time), so if you want in, now is the time.
My Plan for 2015
So what’s my plan?
We know the you-know-what will hit the fan at some point, we just don’t know when. You can’t print money forever with no consequences. We just don’t know if the end will be tomorrow, or ten years from now. So, here’s my plan:
First, I will ride the winners. For the first time in a long time I took a position in AAPL – Apple, on Friday, picking up shares for $109.32; my target is $130 per share. However, to mitigate risk, I plan to do short term covered writes on the stock as it moves up, to lock in the gains.
The other winner I will ride is TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, a play on continued low interest rates. It’s been a good play for me over the last two months, I expect it to continue in 2015. It’s a sit-and-hold for a while (until the crap hits the fan, and interest rates start increasing, at which point I bail).
Second, I will hold my core gold stock holdings, as insurance against the big one. But, again, if they have a few days of strength, I’ll do some covered writes to lock in the gains.
Beyond that? Who knows. I’ll keep holding cash in case we do have a crash.
That’s the plan. Thanks for reading. Thanks for predicting. See you next week.