The Week Before Christmas

‘Tis the week before Christmas and all of the traders are completing their tax loss selling, for which there are many candidates this year, and then they will disappear until January.

My advice:

Disappear until January.

I don’t expect much to happen between now and the first trading day of 2023, so if you want a break, now is the time to take it.

My expectations for 2023 are simple:

1. Inflation has peaked
2. Interest rates have peaked, or will in the first two months of 2023
3. The recession will be officially declared in March 2023
4. The stock market has one final capitulation leg down.  I expect to see 3,000 on the S&P 500.
5. Bitcoin has one final capitulation leg down. $12,000 is likely, and $10,000 is also very possible.
6. Gold will be a good investment in 2023 (as it was in 2022, relative to everything else).

So my strategy is also simple:

I hold SH – ProShares Short S&P500 (SH) to maintain a short position in the market.

I do not own any Bitcoin or any other crypto, but I am not short either because volatility is high, and a pump can occur anytime.

I am building a position in the Ishares 20+ Year Treasure Bond ETF, ticker symbol TLT, because bonds will be a great investment when interest rates peak, and begin their inevitable descent.

I have a small position in a blue chip gold miner, DC – Dakota Gold Corp., and I will likely add to that position on weakness.

When Bitcoin hits USD 10,000, I’ll start buying.

My most important asset now is cash.  Cash is king. When the capitulation happens, Iwant to have lots of cash to deploy.

That’s it; that’s the plan.

We’ll see how it plays out.  See you on Christmas Eve.