Holding Pattern

by JDH on August 12, 2023

For now, we wait.

My best guess is the market may have one more pop up left, but I expect that by the end of the year the market will be much lower.  So, I’m primarily in cash.

Here’s what I’m watching:

First, unemployment.  Yes, I know the numbers look good, but if you dig deeper you see that part time employment is up, and full time employment is down.  That’s not good.

Second, interest rates.  The US 10 year yield is at 4.15%, which is very close to the top of around 4.3% last October.  Will we have a double top?  Or will interest rates go higher?  I have no idea, so that’s why I’m on the sidelines.

Perhaps by next week I will have more inspiration and clarity.

Probably not, but we shall see.