Hmmmm

by JDH on February 9, 2019

Not much happened this week.  January was a great month, February has started with nothing remarkable to report.

A quiet period can be followed by a bang, or a whimper.

My guess is that we are catching our breath before another run higher.  Seems crazy given our level of debt, but that’s how this feels right now.

President Trump’s State of the Union speech accomplished what he wanted: he seemed reasonable, he got the Democrats to clap for his obvious applause lines, and both the politicians and the public are likely favorably disposed to a deal on the border and the budget.

So, I hereby predict that some kind of deal will be announced to avert a government shut down on February 15.  That will be followed, before the summer, by good news in North Korea, and good news in the Middle East.  That will be the impetus to keep the stock market moving higher.

But, gold is also looking not bad, so I could be totally wrong.

I’m holding Stelco, gold stocks, and pot stocks, in the anticipation of brighter days ahead.

We shall see if I’m right.

More next week.

(And Tesla is still going bankrupt, eventually).

The Verdict on January: Great!

by JDH on February 2, 2019

No complaints from this end; the weather was frigid at the end of the month, but portfolio performance was fantastic.

Pot stocks: up

Gold stocks: up

Sweet.

Does January action imply that 2019 will be a great year?  No.  All we know is that January was good.  Gold is far below it’s highs from a few years ago, and pot stocks are well below their highs from September, so we have a long way to run before we even get back close to those levels.  I’m holding, at least for another month, at which point I will reevaluate and decide on next steps.

The logical strategy would be to start liquidating now, perhaps by selling 10% of the stock each time it goes up by some set amount (say 10%).

For example, TGOD.TO – The Green Organic Dutchman, IPO’d at $3.65 in May 2018, bounced to $10 in September, and by Christmas was down to $2.20.  But, January has been great, with the stock peaking over $4 earlier this week, before settling in at around the $3.65 IPO price.  Could it run to $4?  $5?  $10?  Yes, it’s done it before.

So, the prudent strategy is to sell 10% at $4, 10% at $5, and so on, and then blow out the rest at $10.  Or, do what many are doing and sell the stock, but ride the warrants.

Me?  For now, I’m holding.  When we see $5 again I’ll give it some thought.

For gold, the same.  We are early in this bull cycle, so I see no need to jump off the ship at this point.

Steady has she goes.

More next week.

 

Great week for pot stocks

January 26, 2019

On Monday January 21, my favorite pot stock, TGOD.TO – The Green Organic Dutchman, traded as low as $2.80.  On Friday it traded as high as $3.85.  That’s a swing of over 35% in a week.  Not bad. They have announced a new joint venture. (Not that kind of joint; I’m not making puns here; […]

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Tesla – The Bloom is Off the Rose

January 19, 2019

Alternate Title: Tesla – Has this ponzi scheme finally been exposed for what it is? I am not a fan of Tesla. Yes, I’ve had a drive in the car, and the car is cool.  It looks fine.  It’s quiet. It’s quiet because it’s electric, but so is a golf cart, and that’s the problem.  […]

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Gold, Pot Stocks Looking Good So Far in 2019

January 12, 2019

Yes, I realize it’s early here in 2019, but my two biggest sector holdings, gold and pot, are doing great. (Yeah, I know, that’s a low bar, because gold has been in the doldrums for four years, and cannabis stocks got hammered in the fourth quarter, but still). My favorite pot stock, The Green Organic […]

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Good First Week, and Thoughts on Trump

January 5, 2019

It was a short week to start 2019, but it was a good one, primarily because gold appears to be awakening from it’s four year long slumber. My working hypothesis is that we will see $1,300 in January, and $1,350 in February.  After that, who knows.  There is uncertainty in the world now: what will […]

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Pot Stocks Bounce

December 29, 2018

Interesting week, eh? Big crash before Christmas, big bounce on Boxing Day (but the Toronto markets were closed), then a drop on Thursday, and then on Friday, thanks to a hostile takeover bid for pot stock Aphria, the pot stocks bounced big. Big, but it’s a bounce off the bottom. My favorite pot stock, The […]

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At Least the Days are Getting Longer

December 22, 2018

Always look on the bright side, my mother always said.  The markets appear to be firmly in bear market territory.  On Friday, the stocks that have held this market up for years, like Google (Alphabet) and Facebook, were making 52 week lows.  It’s not looking good. So what’s the bright side? In the Northern Hemisphere […]

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Bargains During Tax Loss Season

December 15, 2018

As you all know, if you have a losing position on a stock, if you sell it you have a capital loss, which can be applied to reduce the taxes you owe on any capital gains.  That’s why investors sell their losers before the end of the year, so that they can apply their losses […]

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That Was a Fun Week

December 8, 2018

At the start of October the DOW was just under 27,000, and on Friday it closed at 24,388.  Not quite a 10% drop, but whose counting; that’s something of a blood bath. Alternate viewpoint: DOW is now back to where it was at the start of July, so we’ve had 5 months of no gain; […]

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