We’ve seen this movie before. The media says Trump is going to lose the election, and then he wins, and the markets go up.
So, on Tuesday, I bought SPX calls, 2770 strike, expiring on Friday, for an average price of around $14.00
On Wednesday, after Trump lost the House but increased his seats in the Senate, I sold them for $25.
Not bad for a days work.
Yes, it was a pure gamble. If he lost the Senate the market would have tanked, and I would have been wiped out. (Not that I was playing with real money; it was few dollars I could afford to lose). But he didn’t lose, and I pocketed the cash.
Now what?
I expect that now that Jeff Sessions is out as Attorney General, Trump will make a deal with the Democrats to turn over marijuana legalization to the States, and the pot stocks in the USA will go way up, just as they did in Canada prior to legalization. So, I’m holding.
That’s the update. More next week.
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by JDH on November 17, 2018
Year to date, the Dow is basically flat. Will it stay flat, or crash, or go up?
Historically, the period after mid-term elections tends to be strong, so it’s possible that the market is about to take off.
However, interest rates are creeping upward, and important stocks like Apple have experienced some weakness of late. That could simply imply that they are in a consolidation phase, and this is a great buying opportunity.
Or, perhaps, the funny money that has fueled this nine year bull market has finally run out of steam, and down we go.
The pot stocks did great in the spring summer, and have fallen in the fall. Is that a case of buy on rumor and sell on news? Obviously yes, but does that mean they won’t recover? They haven’t really gotten started yet, so the case can be made that this consolidation phase won’t last forever.
How’s that for a bunch of mumbo-jumbo, sound and fury, signifying nothing?
I don’t know what happens next, so I’m holding my long term plays, and I’m pruning everywhere else. In periods of uncertainty, cash is king, and that’s what I’m accumulating. Hard to lose when you are carrying cash.
We’ve received our first blast of winter here in Southern Ontario (and many other places, including New York City), so I’ll spend the weekend sitting by the fire and contemplating my next move, whatever that may be.
More mumbo-jumbo next week.