Two weeks ago I made this prediction:
I could still be correct. All we need is a $100 move in three weeks and I’ll be a genius, but it’s not looking like a great prediction at the moment.
Obviously I’m long on gold, and as I said one month ago, I am also short on Tesla. When I wrote that, Tesla was at $301. It did subsequently fall, I sold my puts, made some money, but then went short again. Tesla closed Friday at over $317. I sold my puts on Thursday, at a loss. I have no doubt that Tesla will eventually go bankrupt, but imminent and inevitable are not the same concept, so more time my elapse before the collapse occurs. We shall see. For now, I’m on the sidelines, although I expect to go short again at some point.
That’s two wrong, or at least timed wrong, predictions.
The only stock predictions that are not going to pot, are my predictions on pot. I wrote last week about The Green Organic Dutchman, which traded as high a week ago as $6,60, after an IPO at the beginning of May at $3.65. This week, on Wednesday and Thursday it traded over $8, and closed the week at $7.62.
Volume was high.
Of course a stock can’t double in a month and sustain that type of increase, so I assume it will pull back in the coming weeks, but that’s fine. Once it’s fully legalized in Canada (and it passed an important hurdle with the Senate approving it on Thursday), I see TGOD as a $10 stock.
We shall see.
For now, 1 out of 3 ain’t bad, when the 1 is a big winner.
That’s my report; more next week.
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The Last Pop for Pot?
by JDH on June 16, 2018
Bill C-45 will eventually become the Cannabis Act. It was passed by the House of Commons (thanks to a Liberal majority government), and last week it was passed by the Senate, but with amendments. The Liberals don’t like some of the amendments, so they have accepted some of the proposed amendments, rejected others and sent it back to the Senate for final approval.
The original goal was to have marijuana legal by July 1, 2018. That won’t happen. Presumably the Senate will eventually relent, and pass the Bill, and the House of Commons will vote to approve it as well.
The last day before the summer recess is this Friday, June 22. So if the Senate doesn’t return an acceptable Bill before then, the House can’t pass it before the summer break, which means nothing can happen before the House returns on September 17.
What will happen?
There is no Conservative majority in the Senate, so presumably they will pass it. My bet is that it will all happen this week.
However, even if it does pass this week, Canadians won’t be smoking pot in the streets on Canada Day. The government has committed to giving two to three months of lead time after the legislation receives Royal Assent to allow time to get product on shelves, and to make everyone aware of the final rules. So “smoking day” may be Labour Day.
What does this mean for pot stocks?
They had a pull back on Tuesday and Wednesday, but partially recovered on Thursday and Friday, so if I was to guess, I would say that this week may be your last decent opportunity to get on board. If the House passes legislation this week and we know it’s legal, there will be no reason for the big mutual funds to not start cannabis funds. They aren’t in the game now, because they don’t want to invest in something that isn’t legal and risk offending their customers. Once it’s the law of the land, there are no barriers, so off they will go.
I have already taken my initial position.
I have below-market bids in to increase my positions on further weaknesses, so I’m a buyer on any bad news.
Pot will be legal.
There is too much tax revenue at stake to not make it legal.
It will happen, so jump on board and enjoy the ride.
(Just not by July 1).
Next week I will report the passage of Bill C-45, I assume.