How will China Impact the Market?

by JDH on January 25, 2020

As I write this on Saturday morning, January 25, 2020, the coronavirus spread is accelerating in China, and that’s not good news.

Gold was trading at $1,546 on January 21, and sits at $1,571 now, so it would appear that speculators are moving to gold for protection against whatever may happen next.

Needless to say, my gold holdings did very well this week.

Interestingly, Tesla, with the big factory in China traded as low as $505 this week and closed at $564, so apparently no-one in Tesla-land is worried about China (although the stock did peak at $595 in the middle of the week, so we’ll see how it progresses next week).

Apple, also with big production in China, bounced around this week but ended the week slightly higher, so no sign of any direction there.

Impeachment Theatre also appears to be a non-event, but we shall see.

I continue to assume that the Fed will continue to print money to keep the markets high leading into the election, so owning the blue chips is probably safe, and I’ll continue to own gold.

That’s the quick update.

More next week, if anything actually happens.

 

Equinox Gold and Tesla: Some Thoughts

by JDH on January 18, 2020

Last week I did a deep dive on Equinox Gold, when it closed at $10.40, and I said:

Target price $15, with $20 possible by the end of the year.

I’ve got buy orders in at $10, with stink bids at $8.50 in the event of a market collapse.

EQX.TO – Equinox Gold Corp. closed yesterday at $10.90, and traded as high as $11.50 during the week, so while that is great news, there was no opportunity to get any stink bids filled, so we’ll wait.  I may ponder increasing my $10 bid slightly, but not yet; let’s see how the week goes.

Of equal interest is the bizarre price action in Tesla.  The stock actually hit $547 this week.  That’s amazing for a company that has never made a profit, and has no hope of ever making a profit, and only exists due to government subsidies, which other than in China are being reduced or eliminated.

I couldn’t help myself, so on January 14 I bought 3 contracts of the Fe $450 puts, for $14.60, and then sold them on January 16 for $22.70, for a profit of around $2,400.  I realize that the fanboys may drive this fancy golf cart to $5,000 a share, so I’m not holding a short position for any length of time (I’ve been burned enough already), but when I see an RSI up in the 90 range I can’t help myself.  Hopefully this gets it out of my system and I can ignore it going forward.   If Tesla tests $550 again but can’t break through it I’ll buy more puts, because again, I just can’t help myself.

That’s the update.  More next week.

Equinox Gold Corp – A Deep Dive

January 11, 2020

My largest gold holding is EQX.TO – Equinox Gold Corp. The two year chart looks great.  From a base building period in 2018 around the $5.00 level, to the “crash” at the end of 2018 down to just over $4.00, to a much better 2020, where Equinox closed at $10.40 on Friday. Of course charts […]

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Gold vs. Gold Shares

January 4, 2020

Friday January 3, 2020 was an interesting day.  The price of gold was up over $23, closing over $1,552, only slightly higher than the 2019 high hit on September 4. Two items of interest: First, there is obvious overhead resistance at around $1,560, so this could be a level where gold pauses for a correction. […]

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Breakout in Gold

December 28, 2019

That was quite a week, eh? NUGT, our highly leveraged proxy for gold mining shares, started the week below $27.50, and on Thursday traded above $34.50, before settling back to close the week at $33.38. That’s not a bad week, and that puts NUGT back to where it was in September, which may indicated that […]

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Tesla: Hew High: Funding Secured?

December 21, 2019

I must admit, I am stunned by the fact that Tesla is trading at an all time high. $400 has served as an impenetrable resistance level, as evidenced by this four year chart.  On three previous occasions Tesla couldn’t break through, and finally dropped to the November/December 2016 support level in the late spring of […]

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Deep Dive on Gold

December 14, 2019

Okay, not a really deep dive, but let’s take a look at two charts. First, a 1 year chart of gold: The bottom over the last twelve months happened in August 2018 around $1,160, and then gold got close to $1,560 in August of this year before correcting down to almost $1,440 last month.  Gold […]

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A Week of Nothing

December 7, 2019

Nothing happened this week, so I won’t waste your time saying anything. I have sold all of my losers for the year, I have a big cash position, and I’m ready to take advantage of bargains during tax loss season, should any present themselves. That’s the plan, more next week, if anything happens.

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Gold: More of the Same?

November 30, 2019

Two weeks ago a wrote Gold: A Deeper Dive, where I made the point that gold is still in a long term bull market, but the near term future is more uncertain. Price action over the last six months illustrates that point. Gold spent a few months building a base in the $1,300 range, then […]

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Tesla: How is this still a thing?

November 23, 2019

So Elon has this new square ugly cyberbruck, that has bullet proof glass.  So to demonstrate, they drop a metal ball on a regular piece of glass and it breaks; they drop it on Tesla glass and it doesn’t break.  Cool. Then Elon says “hey, throw it at the car window”.  It shatters. The Elon […]

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