Nothing, or Something

by JDH on November 17, 2018

Year to date, the Dow is basically flat.  Will it stay flat, or crash, or go up?

Historically, the period after mid-term elections tends to be strong, so it’s possible that the market is about to take off.

However, interest rates are creeping upward, and important stocks like Apple have experienced some weakness of late.  That could simply imply that they are in a consolidation phase, and this is a great buying opportunity.

Or, perhaps, the funny money that has fueled this nine year bull market has finally run out of steam, and down we go.

The pot stocks did great in the spring summer, and have fallen in the fall.  Is that a case of buy on rumor and sell on news? Obviously yes, but does that mean they won’t recover?  They haven’t really gotten started yet, so the case can be made that this consolidation phase won’t last forever.

How’s that for a bunch of mumbo-jumbo, sound and fury, signifying nothing?

I don’t know what happens next, so I’m holding my long term plays, and I’m pruning everywhere else.  In periods of uncertainty, cash is king, and that’s what I’m accumulating.  Hard to lose when you are carrying cash.

We’ve received our first blast of winter here in Southern Ontario (and many other places, including New York City), so I’ll spend the weekend sitting by the fire and contemplating my next move, whatever that may be.

More mumbo-jumbo next week.

We’ve seen this movie before.  The media says Trump is going to lose the election, and then he wins, and the markets go up.

So, on Tuesday, I bought SPX calls, 2770 strike, expiring on Friday, for an average price of around $14.00

On Wednesday, after Trump lost the House but increased his seats in the Senate, I sold them for $25.

Not bad for a days work.

Yes, it was a pure gamble.  If he lost the Senate the market would have tanked, and I would have been wiped out.  (Not that I was playing with real money; it was few dollars I could afford to lose).  But he didn’t lose, and I pocketed the cash.

Now what?

I expect that now that Jeff Sessions is out as Attorney General, Trump will make a deal with the Democrats to turn over marijuana legalization to the States, and the pot stocks in the USA will go way up, just as they did in Canada prior to legalization.  So, I’m holding.

That’s the update.  More next week.

The Green Organic Dutchman – What a Week

November 3, 2018

The market for cannabis stocks in Canada has been, to put in mildly, a roller coaster, and no stock exemplifies this more than TGOD.TO – The Green Organic Dutchman. It started trading after it’s IPO at around $3.50 in May, bounced to $8 in June, pulled back to $5 in August, and then hit $10 […]

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Fun Week for Tesla

October 27, 2018

Let’s review: Tesla was in a down-trend, and then they announced that they would announce their quarterly earnings early.  Pre-earnings the stock was trading below $255; after earnings on Tuesday it bumped up to $295, and after a pullback on Thursday closed the week at just under $331. That’s show those shorts! Not really. Yes, […]

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Not Over Yet

October 20, 2018

So, the “big crash” happened last week, and the world didn’t end.  Ho hum. I’ll keep this brief: the bull market is not over yet.  We just observed a nice correction, to allow the Big Boys to load up on more “bargains”, so they can do it all again.  Lather, rinse, repeat. Tesla closed at […]

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The Big Crash (Sort Of)

October 13, 2018

As you all know, on Wednesday the market “crashed”, or corrected, or went down.  Further weakness on Thursday brought the broad averages all the way back to where they were in August. mid-August. Yup, we suffered through the “lost eight weeks”.  Clearly a catastrophe. I’m holding a lot of cash, so I wasn’t paying any […]

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Tesla and Pot Stocks (Not the Same Thing)

October 6, 2018

My comments on Tesla will be brief.  Last week I asked if this was the end for Tesla; it’s not, yet, but the end is getting closer.  Tesla closed the week at $262, so after ramping to $316 on word of a settlement with the SEC, it’s back down, because Elon Musk can’t stop sending […]

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Tesla – The End?

September 29, 2018

On Friday TSLA – Tesla Inc. closed at $264.77, down $42.75 or 13.90%.  For comparative purposes, Tesla also close around $265 in February, 2014, and September 2014, and July 2015, and March 2017. We all know the story. Elon Musk tweeted that financing was confirmed to take the company private at $420 per share. Am […]

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Brief and to the point

September 22, 2018

I’ll be brief: Tesla is hanging in there at the $300 level.  This stock is fraud on wheels, and will crash, so now would be a good time to hold your shorts. Amazon is back down to a one month low.  It’s going higher.  Now would be a good time to go long. The pot […]

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Let’s Talk Pot (Stocks)

September 15, 2018

On Thursday cannabis stocks dropped after reports said that people who invest in pot stocks may be barred from entry into the United States.  Pot is illegal at the federal level in the United States, but legal in some states, and if you smell of pot as you cross the border you are likely to be […]

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