Gold: Finally

by JDH on June 15, 2019

Let’s start with a long term perspective on gold; here’s the chart:

From lows around $600 in 2007 and 2008, gold had a great run, topping out over $1,900 in 2011, before collapsing to under $1,050 at the end of 2015.

Of note, gold never fell below $1,000.

The epic crash never happened.

$1,000 is quite obviously very strong support.

From that bottom at the end of 2015 gold entered a four year consolidation period:

From the spring of 2016 to the start of summer 2019 gold has traded between $1,125 and $1,375.  It was a long slow slog.

Which brings us to today:

From $1,266 on May 2, 2019 to a peak of $1,358 on June 14, gold has had an incredible pop, a 7% spike in 6 weeks, something we have not observed for a while.

What does it mean?

Could be nothing.

Trade tensions with China and a spike in oil prices due to hints of conflict may be causing a “safe haven” rush, and if the tensions die down everything could return to “normal”.

Of, after years of doing nothing, gold could be ready to spike.

I’m watching $1,375 and then $1,412, because that’s what my crudely drawn charts say is important.

I am maintaining my position in NUGT, the 3x leverage gold ETF, as a purely speculative play, and I’m also holding some gold stocks (EQX.V is my preferred holding at the moment), and we’ll see what happens.

Could be a disaster.  Could be fun.

For me, this will also imply continuing to liquidate my positions in Canadian pot stocks, which I’ve been doing over the last month or two (although I am looking at US cannabis stocks; they have room to run).

And yes, I am still short Tesla; that dog will eventually die.

That’s the update; more next week.




Good Shorting Opportunity for Tesla

by JDH on June 8, 2019

The Tesla bulls are saying “what a great week!”  From a low of $177 on Monday to a high over $210 on Thursday and Friday, Tesla is back, baby!

Yeah, no.

Despite a bump this week, the chart remains dismal.

This dog is almost dead.  Yes, the pump and dump guys did the “pump” this week, forcing some shorts to cover, but that now means they can short from a higher level, and make more money next week.

If Tesla closes above $240 then perhaps the bulls can regain control, but I doubt it.  I had very few puts at the start of the week, I bought more on Friday.

In other news, gold is looking good, so we’ll discuss that next week.

The weather is good here in southern Ontario, so no point in being in front of a computer, so that’s it for today.

More next week.


Gold is Golden?

June 1, 2019

I’m happy to finally get to talk about gold again, after spending weeks talking about Tesla (which is still a garbage stock, hitting $184.10 on Friday, the same price it traded at in September, 2013, so you are not a growth stock if the stock price hasn’t moved in almost six years, but enough about […]

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Time to Stop Talking About Tesla?

May 25, 2019

I am growing bored, and so I may stop talking about Tesla. Or not, it’s hard to say, but I will say this:  Tesla closed at $190.63 on Friday, the same level it was trading at on January 12, 2015.  So, in four and a half years, Tesla’s stock has not moved.  (It’s moved, but […]

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Tesla: Even and Idiot Like Me Can Make Money Buying Puts

May 18, 2019

Watching the collapse of Tesla has been glorious.  Yes, I know the true believers say the car is great (and perhaps it is, particularly if you have never driven another electric car) and perhaps Elon should be given credit for forcing real car makers to make electric cars, but I still believe that anyone who […]

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No positive progress on Tesla, and a new stock to watch

May 11, 2019

Busy day, so just a quick update: The downtrend in Tesla continues. I know they raised more capital, and I know they say they will have a million robo-taxis in operation in a year (despite the fact that they don’t have the cars, and have not yet found a city to allow them to test […]

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The Tesla Scam Continues

May 4, 2019

Last week I asked the hypothetical question Is the Tesla Fraud Finally Over? Apparently the answer is no, because the Scamster in Cheif, who last year said “funding secured” and he would take the company private at $420 and there was no need to raise any further financing, sold stock at $243 this week, because […]

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Is the Tesla Fraud Finally Over?

April 27, 2019

For those of us who believe Elon Musk is a charlatan, it was a glorious week. I understand why people love him.  While there are differing opinions on whether or not man-made climate change is a real thing, everyone agrees that pollution is bad, and everyone agrees that on a hot summers day in the […]

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Charts, Charts, Charts

April 20, 2019

Today, lots of charts. Tesla Let’s start with Tesla: Tesla had a good week, bouncing from $258 on April 15 to close the week at $273.  Is this stock out of the woods? Nope. The chart tells the story. It is still in an obvious downtrend, and is still and excellent short candidate.  They aren’t […]

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Quick Hits

April 13, 2019

Very busy today, so just some quick hits: First, Tesla isn’t bankrupt, yet.  But they will be.  When the stock bounces up, buy puts. Second, the pot stocks are showing some signs of life.  I began taking profits this week, and I plan to gradually sell my entire position before the end of the year, […]

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