Time to Go All In?

by JDH on February 17, 2018

Last week I said that after the big sell off this looks like a buying opportunity.  Today, I still think it looks like a buying opportunity.

Why?

Ignoring all of the technical indicators, the answer is the same as it’s been for the last 9 years.  Politicians want the market to go up, so they support the market.  Trump loves to tweet about new market highs, so he will want to tweet again when it happens again.  When markets are making new highs people are happy, their retirement accounts are bulging, so it’s all good.  Trump wants to do well in the mid-term elections in November, so I can’t see how he would want a crash to happen.  A correction now is perfect.  That gives lots of time for the market to get rolling again.

So you want a prediction?

We are about to enter the blow-off-top-crazy-vertical phase.

By the time we get to mid-term elections the S&P 500 will be somewhere in the range of 3,500 to 4,000.

Yes, that’s crazy, but Bitcoin when from 3,000 to 20,000 in 93 days before that bubble burst (all the way down to under 6,000), so it can happen.  And, by the way, Bitcoin is back above 10,700 as I write this on Saturday morning, so if you bought Bitcoin any time before November 28, 2017, you are still in the money.  That’s how bubbles work.

So, fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride.

More next week, if the market doesn’t crash before then.

Looks Like a Buying Opportunity

by JDH on February 10, 2018

Nice two weeks on the markets, eh?  The DOW touched 23,360 on Friday, pulling it all the way back to where it was on November 20, 2017.  The “crash” has wiped out all of the gains over the last two and a half months.

Is two and a half months of crash really a crash?  Technically going from 26,000 to 23,000 is 3,000 points, or 11%, so it’s certainly a correction, but with the market so extended beforehand, it can certainly be argued that this is just a necessary pause.

The Dow is not yet down to either it’s 200 day moving average, or the blue uptrend line (see chart), so it’s not yet a crash.  The relative strength index at 35 looks like a great buying opportunity.

The old Fed lady is gone, and the new Fed guy is in, so presumably the new guy will do what every other Fed guy does, and start printing money, which will find it’s way to the stock market.  The Big Boys got to unload their stocks at the top, and now they can start buying again with stocks on sale, so if I had to guess, I would bet on much higher prices ahead.

Am I buying?  Not yet.  I may take a small position on Monday, perhaps with some out of the money options.  For now, I’m on the sidelines.  I’m in no hurry.

Gold

And what about gold?

An interesting conundrum, since the chart shows both a double top (off the September and January highs), and a double bottom (January and February), so this could go either way.

If gold trades below $1,300, we could easily see $1,240.  I’m betting that we won’t see those levels, and support will be found at the 50 day moving average around $1,304, so now is the time to go long.

However, I’m not betting the farm on it, since in these crazy times, who knows.

It appears that under President Trump peace is breaking out all over the world, particularly in North and South Korea, so perhaps that will be bad for gold.  Or, it may lead to prosperity and inflation, which may be good for gold.  I don’t know.

I’ll maintain a small position, and keep my powder dry, for now.

More next week (if I survive the snow).

Dow Falls 666, But That’s Not The Real Story

February 3, 2018

The Dow is down.  Could be a story. The memo got released.  That could be a story. Or perhaps those are just minor details.  Perhaps there is a bigger story. So a guy named Nunes writes a memo, and the Democrats don’t want it released, but the Republicans do, so they vote to release it, […]

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Gold Breakout?

January 27, 2018

Sure looks like it: From $1,302 on New Year’s Day, the low point of the year, gold has steadily advanced to $1,352, with only two slight pullbacks.  Not a bad month, so far. The peak came on September 8, 2017 at $1,357, before a pullback to the $1,240 level in December.  On January 25 gold […]

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How Crazy is Bitcoin?

January 20, 2018

Pretty crazy. On December 7 it touched $19,697 on the Bitfinex exchange.  (Bitcoin isn’t like a stock, traded on one or two exchanges.  Cryptos are traded on many exchanges, and you can trade peer-to-peer without an exchange, so determining an exact price is not precise). On January 7 it touched around $9,000. That’s a 45% […]

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No, I am Not Dead

January 13, 2018

There was no post here last week because, well, there just wasn’t. Also, for some reason the Buy High Sell Higher Forum is broken; not sure what the issue is, I’ll attempt to fix it at some point.  Now, down to business. Gold was up in 2017, and is up so far in 2018, but […]

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Why 2018 Will Blow Your Mind

December 30, 2017

If I actually knew what was going to happen in 2018, I would invest accordingly, and I would not jinx it by writing it on this anonymous blog.  But since you have taken the time to read, here are my thoughts. To start, I agree with the thoughts of Scott Adams, who is of the […]

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The Great Bitcoin Crash of Yesterday, and two months ago, and four months ago, etc.

December 23, 2017

Kinda fun to watch, eh? At 8:30 am on December 17 Bitcon was trading at almost $20,000 US.  On December 22 at 9:15 am it was trading at just under $10,500 US.  That’s almost a 50% drop in less than a week.  Cool, eh? By 4;00 pm on December 22 it was back to $14,800, […]

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Apple: A Nice Cash Generator

December 16, 2017

I continue to hold a number of gold stocks, but this week something different: AAPL – Apple. As you can see, the chart of Apple is a nice long uptrend (year to date). From under $120 at the start of the year to almost $175 now, it’s in a nice uptrend.  But of course just […]

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Gold or Bitcoin: What’s the Best Investment?

December 9, 2017

Yup, I did it.  I used the words “bitcoin” and “investment” in the same sentence. I do not think of Bitcoin as an investment.  I think of it as a speculation.  Or gambling.  However, there is no doubt that we all should have put all of our money in Bitcoin a year ago, because Bitcoin […]

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