No, the world is not ending.

The stock market, and real estate, and Bitcoin, will continue to make new highs, forever.

Perhaps not forever, but for the foreseeable future, for one simple reason: We are up to our eyeballs in debt.  Past our eyeballs, actually.  We are only able to stay afloat due to artificially low interest rates, and inflated collateral values.  The bank is willing to give you a cheap mortgage on the assumption that house prices will continue to increase, so even if you can’t pay the mortgage, they can sell your house and recover their money.  There’s no risk.

Your broker is happy to give you a margin loan to buy stawks, because stonks only go up.

So, as long as real estate and stocks and assets in general stay strong, all is good.

In fact, they have to stay strong, because if assets collapse, the collateral is worth less, loans get called, and the entire economy crashes.

Interest rates cannot increase.

Asset values cannot go down.

Of course the only way that interest rates can be kept low, and asset prices kept high, is through currency debasement (or inflation, if you prefer that term). The currency has been debased by at least 15% over the last year, so to protect our wealth we put our money in hard assets, like stocks, or real estate, or Bitcoin.

So they will all continue to go up, until they don’t.

Why did everything crash on Black Friday?

Who cares?

I assume it was because the Americans were all on their long Thanksgiving weekend, so with fewer buyers, the sellers pounced.  It’s a good strategy.  Short everything, drive the price down, cover your shorts, go long, make a big profit.

I assume that next week, or whenever, everything will return to new highs, and all will be good.

Because there is no other way.  The economy will collapse if it doesn’t.

So, buy Bitcoin, buy stocks, buy real estate, and enjoy the ride.

Unless I’m wrong, so probably best to think for yourself.

Buy the dip!  See you next week.

Bitcoin: Draw the Lines However You Want

by JDH on November 20, 2021

As I write this at 7:00 am on Saturday, November 20, 2021, Bitcoin is up 3% in the last 24 hours, but down 7.7% in the last week.  Volatile, eh?

Is this the start of the bear market, or a correction in a bull market?

It depends on how you draw the lines:

Bitcoin made a new all-time high on November 11, so I doubt that 9 days later we are in a bear market.  After making a new all-time high on October 21, and then again on November 11, a pause is expected.  To add some perspective: after this week’s “crash”, Bitcoin is now back to where it was on October 28.

Time Between All-Time Highs

There were 21 days between the local tops on February 21 and March 14, then 30 days between March 14 and April 14.  Then came the crash, and the next two new highs were on October 21 and November 10, 20 days apart.

So, if we have a repeat of the pattern from earlier this year, with three all-time highs occurring between 20 and 30 days apart, we could see another all-time high by December 10.

I am on record as predicting $100,000 by the end of the year.  It is still possible if we have a run in the next two weeks.

We shall see.

I’m not day trading, so the weekly fluctuations are of minimal interest to me.  I have my position; we’ll see how it goes.

As for the stock market: it appears to be on a never-ending run, so I see no need to scale back at this point.  There will be a crash, but not this week.

That’s the update.  See you next week.


Bitcoin: The Sideways Movement Continues (but Gold on the Move)

November 13, 2021

I know some of you are tired of my constant rantings about Bitcoin, but what else is there to talk about?  The stock market is over-hyped and continues to make new highs, but is that a story? Gold I will admit that gold is getting interesting.  Since the peak in August, 2020 well over $2,000 […]

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Bitcoin and Inflation

November 6, 2021

As mentioned last week, I continue to believe that Bitcoin is set up for a rocket ride.  I don’t know if it will be this week, or next week, or next month, but the spring is loaded. As I write this on Saturday morning, Bitcoin has weakened (down 6% from the high on November 2, […]

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Bitcoin: The Perfect Set Up

October 30, 2021

Today we could discuss the crazy Ponzi scheme that is Tesla (which in hindsight I wish I had bought) but instead, we will return to our favourite crypto: Bitcoin. As a reminder, Bitcoin is up around 117% year to date, which is kinda what we want our investments to do each year, right?  It tends […]

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Last Chance to get on the Bitcoin Train?

October 23, 2021

There is no such thing as a “last chance” with Bitcoin.  It goes up, and down, then up again.  Here’s what we know for sure: Bitcoin made an all-time high of just under $64,000 on April 14, 2021 Bitcoin then collapsed 56% over the next 69 days, trading down to under $29,000 on June 22, […]

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First U.S. Bitcoin ETF: Scam and Opportunity

October 16, 2021

As I write this on Saturday morning, October 16, 2021, it appears that the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF will begin trading in the next few days.  The ProShares Trust will be the issuer.  Of course, Canada already has crypto exchange-traded funds, including QBTC and QETH from 3iQ, and the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, so it’s nice […]

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Happy Thanksgiving (and some thoughts on Bitcoin)

October 9, 2021

Bitcoin dropped 56% in 69 days between April 14 and June 22. So, if you bought Bitcoin at the peak on April 14, you are down 15% as of today. But Bitcoin has bounced back up 39% in the last 17 days.  What does that tell us?  Bitcoin is volatile. Since January 1 Bitcoin is […]

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SPY Failure, Bitcoin Winner

October 2, 2021

S&P 500 Two weeks ago I presented my Dubious Speculation on the S&P 500 Index.  I said that it appears to bottom around the 17th of the month, and then go on to new highs.  The strategy was simple: buy at the lows, sell at the highs. As you can see from the updated chart, […]

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Dubious Speculation: The Result

September 25, 2021

Last week I presented my dubious speculation on how the market would play out.  Specifically, I showed this chart: I said: I have marked on the chart the low points for the month, which occurred on May 19, June 18, July 19, August 19, and September 17 (presumably because September 19 is a Sunday).  If […]

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