As I write this at 7:00 am on Saturday, November 20, 2021, Bitcoin is up 3% in the last 24 hours, but down 7.7% in the last week. Volatile, eh?
Is this the start of the bear market, or a correction in a bull market?
It depends on how you draw the lines:
Bitcoin made a new all-time high on November 11, so I doubt that 9 days later we are in a bear market. After making a new all-time high on October 21, and then again on November 11, a pause is expected. To add some perspective: after this week’s “crash”, Bitcoin is now back to where it was on October 28.
Time Between All-Time Highs
There were 21 days between the local tops on February 21 and March 14, then 30 days between March 14 and April 14. Then came the crash, and the next two new highs were on October 21 and November 10, 20 days apart.
So, if we have a repeat of the pattern from earlier this year, with three all-time highs occurring between 20 and 30 days apart, we could see another all-time high by December 10.
I am on record as predicting $100,000 by the end of the year. It is still possible if we have a run in the next two weeks.
We shall see.
I’m not day trading, so the weekly fluctuations are of minimal interest to me. I have my position; we’ll see how it goes.
As for the stock market: it appears to be on a never-ending run, so I see no need to scale back at this point. There will be a crash, but not this week.
That’s the update. See you next week.
Stock Market and Bitcoin Crash: Is the World Ending?
by JDH on November 27, 2021
No.
No, the world is not ending.
The stock market, and real estate, and Bitcoin, will continue to make new highs, forever.
Perhaps not forever, but for the foreseeable future, for one simple reason: We are up to our eyeballs in debt. Past our eyeballs, actually. We are only able to stay afloat due to artificially low interest rates, and inflated collateral values. The bank is willing to give you a cheap mortgage on the assumption that house prices will continue to increase, so even if you can’t pay the mortgage, they can sell your house and recover their money. There’s no risk.
Your broker is happy to give you a margin loan to buy stawks, because stonks only go up.
So, as long as real estate and stocks and assets in general stay strong, all is good.
In fact, they have to stay strong, because if assets collapse, the collateral is worth less, loans get called, and the entire economy crashes.
Interest rates cannot increase.
Asset values cannot go down.
Of course the only way that interest rates can be kept low, and asset prices kept high, is through currency debasement (or inflation, if you prefer that term). The currency has been debased by at least 15% over the last year, so to protect our wealth we put our money in hard assets, like stocks, or real estate, or Bitcoin.
So they will all continue to go up, until they don’t.
Why did everything crash on Black Friday?
Who cares?
I assume it was because the Americans were all on their long Thanksgiving weekend, so with fewer buyers, the sellers pounced. It’s a good strategy. Short everything, drive the price down, cover your shorts, go long, make a big profit.
I assume that next week, or whenever, everything will return to new highs, and all will be good.
Because there is no other way. The economy will collapse if it doesn’t.
So, buy Bitcoin, buy stocks, buy real estate, and enjoy the ride.
Unless I’m wrong, so probably best to think for yourself.
Buy the dip! See you next week.