The Rise Before the Fall?

November 14, 2020

There comes a point in time where you look at the markets and say: “this is crazy”. Here in Ontario, Canada, where many businesses have been in “work from home” mode for 8 months, COVID cases are at record levels: 1,400 a day, as compared to under 600 during the peak in April.  Clearly April […]

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Wrong, But Still a Big Win

November 7, 2020

Last week I explained how to bet on a Trump win, based on my assumption that Trump would win the election, easily.  Needless to say, there was no landslide win for either side.  As I write this, there was no win for anyone, yet.  However, it was still a very profitable week.  Here’s the play […]

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How to Bet on a Trump Win

October 31, 2020

As I described last week, I expect Trump to win the election on November 3.  I don’t expect it to be close.  I expect that by the morning of November 4 it will be an obvious landslide victory, regardless of how many mail in ballots have yet to be counted.  The average American thinks they […]

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Holding Zone

October 24, 2020

I have nothing to report this week, because nothing happened this week.  Perhaps next week will be more eventful. There was a presidential debate, which I didn’t watch, but based on the reaction I read on Twitter, which I assume is completely accurate, President Trump will win an easy re-election.  My prediction: 310 electoral college […]

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Amazon, Gold, and the Charts

October 17, 2020

Today, for fun, let’s review the charts. Let’s start with a stock we don’t regularly follow here: Amazon.  The one month chart is interesting. Interesting in that on Friday, at 10:30 in the morning, AMZN was trading at $3,399.66, but couldn’t quite make it to the psychologically interesting but otherwise unimportant level of $3,400. At […]

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Time to Deploy Capital in Gold?

October 10, 2020

Last week I said Keep Your Powder Dry.  I also said this: I assume that by Canadian Thanksgiving he will be back in the White House, on the road to recovery, and he will be able to say “this was serious, I should have been more careful, but even for a 74 year old obese […]

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Keep Your Powder Dry

October 3, 2020

I have no idea what it means to “keep your powder dry”.  Gun powder, I assume, because if it’s wet it won’t ignite?  Baby powder, because there’s no point in putting wet powder on a baby?  Two different images, same implications. My operating thesis is this: Trump wins the election in November, probably by a […]

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Where are we at?

September 26, 2020

I have no idea where we are at. I know that the price of gold is about where it was back in July, around $1,862 an ounce, which is a lot lower than the $2,000 at ounce we exceeded on August 6.  It’s been all down hill since then. Why? I have no idea. Profit […]

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Where are we, exactly?

September 19, 2020

As on write this on Saturday September 19, we are 46 days away from the US presidential election.  What happens between now and then? Historically, markets favor the incumbent, because they like certainty.  The S&P 500 returns, on average 15.44% in the year after the election if the incumbent is re-elected, as compared to 5.71% […]

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Covered Writes were Right This Week

September 12, 2020

Sorry for the stupid pun, but the covered write call option strategy worked well this week. After the recent correction, I believe gold stocks will trend higher, so I have a position in NUGT – Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x Shares because I like crazy leverage.  NUGT gives me that.  I expect to hold […]

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