Gold, Bonds, Interest Rates

March 25, 2023

Let’s start with gold.  Here’s the 5 day chart: For the first time since the summer of 2020, gold traded over $2,000 US per ounce.  As you can see in the chart, gold did not hold that level, and closed trading on Friday at $1,976.90, relatively unchanged on the week. The five-year chart is more […]

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A Deep Dive on Bonds and Interest Rates

March 18, 2023

Let’s start with some stats.  Since the third week of February/beginning of March to now, the Canadian yield curve, while remaining heavily inverted, has dropped significantly: Why should we care? Two reasons: First, an inverted yield curve almost always leads to a recession.  (I can’t find an example in the past where it didn’t).  That […]

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What the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Means For You

March 11, 2023

The FDIC has placed Silicon Valley Bank into receivership.  That’s a big deal.  If you are a depositor with $250,000 or less in deposits, no problem; you’ll get your money back on Monday.  For any deposits over $250,000, good luck.  You will get some of your money back as assets are liquidated, but it may […]

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The Correction Continues?

March 4, 2023

Last week I said The Correction Continues.  This week, not so much.  After a mid-week decline, the S&P 500 ended the week up. Up is not a correction. There was a correction in Bitcoin, down 5% over the last five days. Will the market follow Bitcoin, or will it be the other way around? I […]

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The Correction Continues

February 25, 2023

Last week I discussed whether the bear market was over, or if there was more pain to come. The answer: more pain. The down channel that started in January 2022 on the SPX appeared to have been broken in February, but the decline of this past week shows that it was likely a false breakout.  […]

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It’s One or the Other, Not Both

February 18, 2023

Here’s the conundrum: There are many negative forces at play for the stock market: The Fed has increased interest rates 450bp in 11 months.  The Bank of Canada started at a rate of 0.25% in March 2022, and now is at 4.50%, an increase of 425 bps is less than a year. But there is […]

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No Comment

February 11, 2023

I have no comments today.  Nothing. Nothing has changed since last week when I asked the rhetorical question Is the Bear Market Over?  My answer is no, there is more pain on the horizon. I realize the Canadian jobs report looks great, but unemployment is a lagging indicator.  In the short term, it tells us […]

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Bear Market Rally Almost Over?

February 4, 2023

Since the start of 2022, 13 months ago, the S&P 500 Index has trended down.  But, over the last two weeks, the previous short term high reached at the end of 2022 has been exceeded, and the downtrend channel has been broken: So is that it?  Is the bear market over?  Are we in a […]

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Boom or Bust

January 28, 2023

I must admit that I am confused. My “Big Picture” thesis is that the economy is already in a recession.  Interest rates are high, the yield curve is significantly inverted, and those conditions lead to a recession.  We also have a war, massive government debt, and increasing consumer debt, which leads to lower growth, which […]

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The Official Recession Declaration Date

January 21, 2023

The recession will be declared on April 1, 2023, because that would be funny.  Sad, but funny. My working hypothesis is relatively simple: Inflation As we learned in introductory economics, prices are determined at the intersection of supply and demand.  Inflation, which the consumer sees as increasing prices, can be caused by supply or demand.  […]

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