January 28, 2023
I must admit that I am confused. My “Big Picture” thesis is that the economy is already in a recession. Interest rates are high, the yield curve is significantly inverted, and those conditions lead to a recession. We also have a war, massive government debt, and increasing consumer debt, which leads to lower growth, which […]
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January 21, 2023
The recession will be declared on April 1, 2023, because that would be funny. Sad, but funny. My working hypothesis is relatively simple: Inflation As we learned in introductory economics, prices are determined at the intersection of supply and demand. Inflation, which the consumer sees as increasing prices, can be caused by supply or demand. […]
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Gold, Bonds, Interest Rates
March 25, 2023Let’s start with gold. Here’s the 5 day chart: For the first time since the summer of 2020, gold traded over $2,000 US per ounce. As you can see in the chart, gold did not hold that level, and closed trading on Friday at $1,976.90, relatively unchanged on the week. The five-year chart is more […]