Microstrategy: Are the shorts winning?

March 30, 2024

This week, yes, the shorts one. On Thursday, Kerrisdale Capital Management issued a report recommending a short sale of Microstrategy.  Their thesis is simple: as of March 18, 2024 Microstrategy owns 214,246.  At a Bitcoin price of $70,000 USD, that’s a Bitcoin value of just under $15 Billion. However, MSTR – Microstrategy Inc. has an implied […]

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Have we learned anything yet?

March 23, 2024

No.  I haven’t learned anything yet. During the rocket ride up for MSTR – Microstrategy Inc.  I sold covered calls, significantly reducing my potential profits. Then, from March 15 to March 19 MSTR crashed 32%, but assuming the rocket ride up would continue, I was not covered, so I suffered the downside and lost the […]

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Microstrategy – The MSTR Story Continues

March 16, 2024

Let me bring you up to speed: I wanted a leveraged, highly risky way to play the Bitcoin pump, so I bought MSTR – Microstrategy Inc.  I’m not completely crazy, so I decided to mitigate the risk by writing covered calls against my position.  I give up some of the upside, but I get some […]

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Bitcoin and Microstrategy: My Unbounded Idiocy

March 9, 2024

The saga continues.  As I reported last week in How NOT to do covered writes on MSTR – MicroStrategy, I own MicroStrategy, and to “juice” my returns I’ve done covered writes (selling out of the money call options on my MSTR shares). The strategy has been a dismal failure. The theory is simple enough.  The […]

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How NOT to do covered writes on MSTR – MicroStrategy

March 2, 2024

I have no idea what will happen, but here’s how I’m playing it: As I noted last week in my post two weeks ago, Not Even Close: Thoughts on Bitcoin and Microstrategy, I own a small MSTR – Microstrategy Inc. position, and to “juice the returns,” I’m doing covered writes against it. The theory is simple.  […]

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Bitcoin: Sideways, Then Up or Down

February 24, 2024

Here’s the current Bitcoin chart, with the uptrend channel starting in mid-October: As I write this at 7:00 am on Saturday, Bitcoin is just over USD 51,000, exactly where it traded on Wednesday.  The $49,000 level is of interest, which represents either significant support or resistance, depending on which side of the line we are […]

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Not Even Close: Thoughts on Bitcoin and Microstrategy

February 17, 2024

Last week, I said: Bitcoin: The (Temporary) Top is In.  When I wrote that, Bitcoin was trading at around $47,000 USD.  Bitcoin hit just under $52,900 USD on Thursday. Apparently, the top was not in.  Here’s the five-year chart: As I write this at 6:30 am Saturday morning, February 17, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at […]

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Bitcoin: The (Temporary) Top is In

February 10, 2024

Today, a deeper dive into Bitcoin.  Let’s start with the five-year chart: I’ve drawn the long-term trend line, starting with the peak in 2019, and then pivot points in 2021, 2022, and 2024.  I’ve also drawn in a shorter-term trend line starting at the October 2022 peak.  I’ve circled the pivot points: Keep the big […]

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Here’s the Thing

February 3, 2024

The market sure looks over-extended: The S&P 500 Index is up 126% from the pandemic lows.  It’s up 42% since the lows of October 2022.  The economy doesn’t look great.  Unemployment is increasing, inflation remains problematic, wars are ongoing, immigration is a massive problem in North America, and we are in an uncertain election cycle.  […]

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The Macro View

January 27, 2024

Let’s start with the macro view: specifically, when will the recession start? I am on record as expecting a recession last year, and it does not appear that a recession started last year, so what’s the deal? The deal is that “fiscal stimulus” is still a thing.  The federal governments in both the USA and […]

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